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Playoff Probabilities Report

Introduction

The playoff probability reports will be generated on a daily basis until the end of the regular season. The probabilties are empirical estimates based on simulating the remainder of the season 1000 times. Although I am not going to give complete details at this time, the method has been tried and tested: it was used to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Sample Report

Rk Eastern Conference W L W-L% Current Remain Best Worst Playoffs Division Top Seed Win Conf Win Finals Win Lottery
1 Boston Celtics 63.9 18.1 .779 43-11 21-7 69-13 57-25 100.0% 100.0% 49.8% 41.6% 27.9%
2 Cleveland Cavaliers 63.5 18.5 .775 41-11 23-7 71-11 56-26 100.0% 100.0% 41.2% 39.5% 29.3%
3 Orlando Magic 60.8 21.2 .742 39-13 22-8 68-14 53-29 100.0% 100.0% 9.0% 16.8% 10.9%
4 Atlanta Hawks 47.3 34.7 .577 31-21 16-14 56-26 37-45 100.0% 1.4% 0.2%
5 Philadelphia 76ers 43.0 39.0 .524 26-26 17-13 51-31 34-48 97.1% 0.3% 0.1%
6 Miami Heat 42.2 39.8 .515 28-24 14-16 51-31 35-47 95.4% 0.2% 0.1%
7 Detroit Pistons 41.0 41.0 .500 27-25 14-16 49-33 33-49 87.6% 0.1% 0.1%
8 Milwaukee Bucks 38.7 43.3 .472 27-30 12-13 47-35 31-51 60.4% 0.1% 0.4%
9 Chicago Bulls 36.6 45.4 .446 24-30 13-15 44-38 29-53 26.0% 0.5%
10 Charlotte Bobcats 35.4 46.6 .431 22-31 13-16 44-38 27-55 9.8% 1.5%
11 Toronto Raptors 34.6 47.4 .422 21-34 14-13 42-40 27-55 8.9% 1.4%
12 New York Knicks 33.8 48.2 .413 22-30 12-18 42-40 27-55 4.9% 2.2%
13 New Jersey Nets 33.6 48.4 .410 23-31 11-17 42-40 26-56 5.1% 0.8%
14 Indiana Pacers 33.6 48.4 .410 21-34 13-14 41-41 24-58 4.8% 1.2%
15 Washington Wizards 19.5 62.5 .238 12-41 8-21 27-55 12-70 17.6%

Here are the column descriptions: