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Archive for the 'SRS' Category

Who Ruled the Top Defenses in 2011?

25th July 2011

Which players excel against the best defenses, and which ones get their numbers by feasting on the weakest Ds?

To answer those questions, here's the latest installment of a series I started in 2009 and continued in 2010... The concept is simple: I rate each team defensively using the BBR Rankings formula (including regular-season and playoff games), then track how well each player performed offensively against opponents of varying defensive quality.

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Posted in Analysis, BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/- | 44 Comments »

NBA Finals Preview: Miami vs. Dallas

28th May 2011

Miami Heat

58-24, 1st in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Erik Spoelstra (58-24)

PTS/G: 102.1 (8th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.6 (6th of 30)
SRS: 6.76 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.9 (20th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.7 (3rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.5 (5th of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (2nd of 30)

Arena: AmericanAirlines Arena ▪ Attendance: 810,930 (4th of 30)

Playoffs:
NBA Finals versus Dallas Mavericks
Won NBA Eastern Conference Finals (4-1) versus Chicago Bulls
Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-1) versus Boston Celtics
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Philadelphia 76ers
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Posted in Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 8 Comments »

BBR Rankings: Pre-Finals Schedule-Adjusted NBA Offensive and Defensive Power Ratings

27th May 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on May 26, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 18 Comments »

Playoff Preview: #3 Dallas vs. #4 Oklahoma City/#8 Memphis

14th May 2011

Dallas Mavericks

57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)

PTS/G: 100.2 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 96.0 (10th of 30)
SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)

Arena: American Airlines Center ▪ Attendance: 803,968 (6th of 30)

Playoffs:
Won NBA Western Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus Los Angeles Lakers
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Portland Trail Blazers

Pos Roster G MP poMPG SPM RAPM 4yAPM PER WS/48
PG Jason Kidd 90 2989 33.6 3.99 0.0 1.9 14.7 0.119
SG Jason Terry 92 2887 32.3 1.43 2.8 1.9 16.8 0.116
SF Shawn Marion 90 2562 30.9 -0.21 -2.3 0.8 16.6 0.116
PF Dirk Nowitzki 83 2885 38.1 5.08 7.0 7.8 23.8 0.217
C Tyson Chandler 84 2356 29.7 2.66 3.5 2.6 17.9 0.215
SF Peja Stojakovic 43 860 24.3 0.74 2.0 3.5 15.4 0.136
PG Jose Barea 91 1847 17.8 -1.81 0.4 -1.7 14.8 0.093
C Brendan Haywood 82 1506 17.5 -3.34 -1.2 1.4 11.4 0.101
SG D. Stevenson 82 1286 12.8 -3.21 -0.9 0.4 9.3 0.069
SG Corey Brewer 74 1528 3.6 -0.58 0.0 -0.3 11.1 0.037
PF Brian Cardinal 60 625 1.8 0.57 -0.8 1.1 9.9 0.136
C Ian Mahinmi 58 493 2.5 0.28 0.7 0.0 13.7 0.177

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Posted in Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | Comments Off

Playoff Preview: #1 Chicago vs. #2 Miami

14th May 2011

Chicago Bulls

62-20, 1st in NBA Central Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Tom Thibodeau (62-20)

PTS/G: 98.6 (20th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 91.3 (2nd of 30)
SRS: 6.53 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (23rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.3 (11th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (1st of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (1st of 30)

Arena: United Center ▪ Attendance: 893,462 (1st of 30)

Playoffs:
Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-2) versus Atlanta Hawks
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Indiana Pacers

Pos Roster G MP poMPG SPM RAPM 4yAPM PER WS/48
PG Derrick Rose 92 3466 40.0 5.67 3.4 1.9 23.9 0.211
SG Keith Bogans 93 1675 19.5 -0.61 0.1 0.2 9.4 0.123
SF Luol Deng 93 3683 43.2 1.81 3.6 3.8 15.6 0.152
PF Carlos Boozer 70 2222 30.9 2.17 0.5 2.2 18.0 0.142
C Joakim Noah 59 1936 32.7 3.72 0.7 2.4 18.8 0.208
SG Kyle Korver 93 1850 18.3 0.49 1.7 2.5 12.8 0.145
PF Taj Gibson 91 1935 17.5 -0.66 1.5 0.8 14.6 0.145
SG Ronnie Brewer 92 1934 13.9 1.29 0.9 0.9 13.6 0.144
C Omer Asik 93 1092 9.4 -1.81 2.9 4.0 11.3 0.125
PG C.J. Watson 93 1190 9.0 -1.07 0.0 1.2 12.3 0.079
C Kurt Thomas 58 1234 9.3 0.48 -0.7 1.0 10.2 0.132
SG Rasual Butler 50 777 2.3 -7.07 -1.4 -1.8 6.4 -0.007

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Posted in Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 8 Comments »

BBR Rankings: (Almost) Post-Round 2 Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings

13th May 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on May 12, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 5 Comments »

Tuesday Flashback: May 8, 1997

3rd May 2011

...aka the last time the Hawks beat the Bulls in a playoff game:

  Scoring
  1 2 3 4 T
ATL         103
CHI         95
Four Factors  
Pace eFG% TOV% ORB% FT/FGA ORtg
ATL 89.0 .585 12.2 19.4 .282 115.8
CHI 89.0 .473 7.6 27.7 .087 106.8

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Posted in Boxscore Breakdown, History, SRS | 11 Comments »

Playoff Preview: #4 Oklahoma City vs. #8 Memphis

30th April 2011

Oklahoma City Thunder

55-27, 1st in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Scott Brooks (55-27)

PTS/G: 104.8 (5th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 101.0 (18th of 30)
SRS: 3.81 (9th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.7 (13th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.2 (5th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.2 (15th of 30)
Expected W-L: 51-31 (9th of 30)

Arena: Ford Center ▪ Attendance: 726,071 (14th of 30)

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Posted in Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 4 Comments »

Playoff Preview: #2 LA Lakers vs. #3 Dallas

29th April 2011

Los Angeles Lakers

57-25, 1st in NBA Pacific Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Phil Jackson (57-25)

PTS/G: 101.5 (9th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 95.4 (8th of 30)
SRS: 6.01 (3rd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.7 (21st of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.0 (6th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 104.3 (6th of 30)
Expected W-L: 58-24 (3rd of 30)

Arena: STAPLES Center ▪ Attendance: 778,777 (8th of 30)

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Posted in Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 7 Comments »

Playoff Preview: #2 Miami vs. #3 Boston

29th April 2011

Miami Heat

58-24, 1st in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Erik Spoelstra (58-24)

PTS/G: 102.1 (8th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.6 (6th of 30)
SRS: 6.76 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.9 (20th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.7 (3rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.5 (5th of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (2nd of 30)

Arena: AmericanAirlines Arena ▪ Attendance: 810,930 (4th of 30)

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Posted in Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 8 Comments »