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Archive for the 'SRS' Category

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (March 4, 2011)

4th March 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on March 3, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 42 Comments »

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (February 25, 2011)

25th February 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on February 24, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | Comments Off

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (February 18, 2011)

18th February 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on February 17, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 12 Comments »

Mini-Mailbag: MVP Winners, Team Winning %, & SRS

11th February 2011

Alex Sonty, who writes ChicagoNow's Load O' Bull blog, has been paying close attention to Henry Abbott's TrueHoop posts about Derrick Rose -- specifically, this post about past MVP winners and their teams' rankings in wins. Henry found that team wins were highly correlated with MVP voting, to the point that 19 of the last 20 MVPs came from a team with a top-3 record. This of course is bad news for Rose, as the Bulls are 6th in winning % at the moment.

But Alex was wondering how past winners stack up in a schedule-adjusted margin-of-victory based metric like the Simple Rating System, where the Bulls are 5th. So here's the master list -- every MVP winner, with their team's rank in both WPct and SRS:

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Posted in Analysis, Awards, BBR Mailbag, History, SRS | 14 Comments »

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (February 11, 2011)

11th February 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on February 10, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | Comments Off

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (February 4, 2011)

4th February 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on February 3, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 14 Comments »

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (January 28, 2011)

28th January 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on January 27, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | Comments Off

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (January 21, 2011)

21st January 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on January 20, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 7 Comments »

SRS Standard Errors, the Probability of Being the Best Team, and a Layup

20th January 2011

I finally got around to calculating the standard errors for our team Simple Ratings today:

Team Estimate Std. Error
SAS 7.97 2.62
MIA 6.90 2.60
BOS 6.67 2.63
LAL 5.78 2.59
CHI 4.81 2.61
ORL 4.61 2.61
DEN 3.48 2.63
DAL 3.30 2.62
NOH 2.40 2.60
OKC 2.05 2.61
ATL 1.75 2.60
UTA 1.73 2.61
HOU 0.86 2.60
POR 0.52 2.60
MEM 0.49 2.61
NYK 0.09 2.62
MIL -0.57 2.65
PHI -0.79 2.63
IND -0.87 2.65
LAC -1.51 2.63
PHO -1.91 2.64
GSW -2.92 2.62
CHA -3.74 2.64
DET -3.94 2.61
TOR -4.23 2.62
MIN -5.33 2.60
WAS -5.82 2.64
SAC -6.12 2.64
NJN -6.22 2.61
CLE -10.88 2.62

Then I set up a little Monte Carlo sim to estimate what is the probability of each team being the NBA's best (aka the team with the greatest "true" SRS skill). After 10,000 simulations using the estimates and standard errors above, here were the results:

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Posted in Analysis, Layups, SRS, Statgeekery | 8 Comments »

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (January 14, 2011)

14th January 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on January 13, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 1 Comment »