21st October 2009
Yesterday I made some changes to the Simple Projection System (SPS). The basic structure remains the same (it is supposed to be simple, after all) with the following modifications:
- The weights for the previous three seasons have changed from 5-4-3 to 6-3-1.
- The regression to the mean component now uses 1000 minutes of league average performance rather than 5000 minutes.
- The age adjustment is now (28 - age) * 0.004 for players younger than 28 and (28 - age) * 0.002 for players older than 28.
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9th January 2009
Back in October, Basketball Prospectus' Kevin Pelton introduced the SCHOENE projection system. Kevin's system is quite detailed, so rather than summarize it here I would encourage you to read his article. Around the same time Kevin released SCHOENE, I came up with the Simple Projection System, or SPS. The SPS is very simple (hence the name), and is described in full in the previous link. Since we are nearing the midpoint of the 2008-09 season, I thought it would be interesting to see how these two new projection systems are faring.
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