Archive for the 'Trivia' Category

They've been having a spirited debate about retrodiction over at APBRmetrics recently, and apparently we're all going to engage in some sort of challenge over whose pet metric could "retrodict" a team's 2009 performance the best. This, of course, should be nothing new to faithful readers of the BBR blog, because we retrodicted 2008-09 several months ago. But my question is, does accurate retrodiction across the entire league really "prove" anything? For the vast majority of teams, any cheeky wee monkey is going to be able to predict performance effectively based on data from the past few years because A) roster turnover is rarely drastic enough to the point that a team's stars are no longer with the team anymore, and B) even in the case of roster shakeups, coaches almost always employ new players in the same role they had been playing in for their previous team. Since we know a lot of basketball productivity is role-specific, there's really not a lot of point in boasting that past production in your metric predicted future production when a player plays exactly the same role in each situation.

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Thanksgiving Day may be known for its family get-togethers, enormous feasts, festive parades, and football games, but don't forget that they also play basketball on the fourth Thursday in November. Since 1986-87, the earliest year for which we have game logs, there have been 21 NBA games played on Thanksgiving, including at least 1 game in all but one year from 1994-2005 (and the only reason they didn't hoop it up in '98 was the lockout). The league took a hiatus from Thanksgiving games for the past two seasons, but we knew that wouldn't last long -- indeed, pro ball is once again hitting the hardwood tonight, pitting the Wizards (and their new coach Ed Tapscott) against the Orlando Magic at 8 p.m. EST, to be followed at 10:30 by a Western Conference PG battle between Chris Paul's Hornets and Chauncey Billups' Nuggets.

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Over the years, much has been written about the so-called "Madden Curse," a powerful jinx that afflicts those football players worthy (and unfortunate) enough to appear on the box of EA Sports' Madden NFL video game. It seems that simply by virtue of being Madden's pitchman, a player will either suffer a debilitating injury or a sudden, precipitous decline in production -- or both. Pretty spooky, right?

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Through last night's games, the only undefeated teams in the league are the Lakers and the surprising Hawks (both 5-0), while the Clippers' win against Dallas means that the NBA's lone remaining winless team is the Gilbert Arenas-less Washington Wizards at 0-5.

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At first glance, former Rockets forward Matt Bullard appears to be an unlikely hero. Despite standing 6'10", Bullard weighed just 215 lbs. and seldom mixed it up inside at either end of the floor, instead opting to hang around the 3-point arc and spot up for catch-and-shoot opportunities. He hardly ever drew fouls because he didn't attack the basket, and if you saw him dribble the ball more than twice before either passing or shooting, it was a rare event. In other words, Bullard was the kind of player about whom my high school coach would have derisively said, "He plays smaller than his height."

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BBR is pleased to announce that Neil Paine will be blogging for us throughout the 2008-09 season. Neil is a frequent contributor on the APBRmetrics message board as well as ArmchairGM. We think Neil is a great addition to the site and we look forward to working with him this season. —JK

We've all heard the cliché: "On opening night, every team is tied for first place." And there's no denying that the start of a new season brings a certain measure of optimism to even the most long-suffering of NBA fans. "This could be the year," they say as they look at their team's roster. "Why not?" They can even point to Boston's 2007-08 turnaround as evidence that a few key off-season trades can turn a team from a bottom-feeder into a champion overnight.

But then they have to actually play the games.

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