14th September 2009
Last week, we took a very preliminary look at what our Statistical Plus/Minus projection system saw in the cards for the 2009-10 NBA Season. To project minutes played, we used a very simplistic regression equation that took a weighted average of a player's minutes over the past three seasons and regressed it heavily to the mean. Of course, this is a very rough way to estimate what a player's minutes will be next season; in fact, the standard error of the playing time regression (done on all players from 1978-2009) was 674.8, meaning that the prediction was likely to be off by a significant amount in either direction, too high or too low. As you might guess, this could severely impact the accuracy of the projected standings.
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Posted in 2010 Preview, Projections, Statgeekery, Statistical +/- | 11 Comments »
9th September 2009
Since everyone seems to be jumping on the projection bandwagon right now, here are the preliminary projected standings for 2010 (I'll explain the process at the bottom):
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Posted in 2010 Preview, Projections, Statgeekery, Statistical +/- | 23 Comments »
1st June 2009
In the final installment of the season, here's your official Statistical +/- prediction for the 2009 Finals:
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Posted in 2009 Playoffs, Analysis, Projections, Statistical +/- | 5 Comments »
19th May 2009
Using the technique I introduced a few weeks ago, here's what Statistical +/- sees in the cards for the Conference Finals:
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Posted in 2009 Playoffs, Analysis, Projections, Statistical +/- | 3 Comments »
14th May 2009
Congrats are in order to Danny Granger this week for winning the NBA's Most Improved Player Award for the 2008-09 season. Now, this award is often decried by statheads for its insistence on identifying players who haven't really improved at all but have just seen more playing time, but Granger actually did make a leap in production from 2008 to 2009. Not the biggest leap, mind you, but a leap nonetheless. Here's what SPM says about the biggest year-to-year differences from '08 to '09 (minimum 500 MP in both seasons):
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Posted in Analysis, Statistical +/- | 7 Comments »
11th May 2009
Some people have been requesting updated playoff SPM scores, so here are the results through the first round of the playoffs. I'll update again after every round with both round-by-round and cumulative splits.
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Posted in 2009 Playoffs, Statistical +/- | 5 Comments »
4th May 2009
A week ago, we delved deeper into our new Statistical Plus/Minus results and tried to retrodict the standings for the regular season, coming within a healthy +/- 6.6 wins per team. Now the question is, can we put the same method to the test for a playoff series? Let's use the recently-completed first round as a test case...
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Posted in 2009 Playoffs, Analysis, Projections, Statistical +/- | 8 Comments »
