You Are Here > Basketball-Reference.com > BBR Blog > NBA and College Basketball Analysis

SITE NEWS: We are moving all of our site and company news into a single blog for Sports-Reference.com. We'll tag all Basketball-Reference content, so you can quickly and easily find the content you want.

Also, our existing Basketball-Reference blog rss feed will be redirected to the new site's feed.

Basketball-Reference.com // Sports Reference

For more from Neil, check out his new work at BasketballProspectus.com.

Archive for the 'Projections' Category

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Memphis Grizzlies

26th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Memphis Grizzlies

Coach: Lionel Hollins

2010 Summary:
Record: 40-42, Finished 4th in NBA Southwest Division
SRS: -1.38 (17th of 30) ▪ Pace: 93.6 (10th of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.3 (13th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 109.9 (19th of 30)
Expected W-L: 37-45 (17th of 30)

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | Comments Off

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Boston Celtics

26th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Boston Celtics

Coach: Doc Rivers

2010 Summary:
Record: 50-32, Finished 1st in NBA Atlantic Division
SRS: 3.37 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.6 (22nd of 30)
Off Rtg: 107.7 (15th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.8 (5th of 30)
Expected W-L: 52-30 (9th of 30)

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | 11 Comments »

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Sacramento Kings

26th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Sacramento Kings

Coach: Paul Westphal

2010 Summary:
Record: 25-57, Finished 5th in NBA Pacific Division
SRS: -4.06 (25th of 30) ▪ Pace: 94.0 (7th of 30)
Off Rtg: 105.3 (22nd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 109.9 (20th of 30)
Expected W-L: 29-53 (25th of 30)

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | Comments Off

2010-11 Projected NBA Standings

25th October 2010

It's that time of year again... Time to plug a ton of projected numbers into a computer, simulate the NBA schedule thousands of times, and see what kind of predictions it spits out. This year I ran three sets of 2,500 simulated seasons -- one based on statistical plus/minus (the raw version of which I posted here, but also adjusted for team using past franchise & coaching histories), one based on Win Shares (using the Simple Projection System method), and one based on a heavily regressed-to-the-mean version of last year's Simple Ratings (not so much for prediction purposes, but as an experiment to see how well the "dumbest" possible projections fare vs. complex methods). To see the individual minutes and ratings that went into these projections, click here.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, BBR Rankings, Projections, Season Preview, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 33 Comments »

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Dallas Mavericks

25th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Dallas Mavericks

Coach: Rick Carlisle

2010 Summary:
Record: 55-27, Finished 1st in NBA Southwest Division
Pythagorean W-L: 49-33 (12th of 30)
SRS: 2.67 (12th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.5 (17th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 109.2 (10th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 106.3 (12th of 30)

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | Comments Off

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: New Orleans Hornets

25th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

New Orleans Hornets

Coach: Monty Williams

2010 Summary:
Record: 37-45, Finished 5th in NBA Southwest Division
Pythagorean W-L: 34-48 (20th of 30)
SRS: -2.27 (20th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.6 (15th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 107.4 (18th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.1 (21st of 30)

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | Comments Off

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Indiana Pacers

25th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Indiana Pacers

Coach: Jim O'Brien

2010 Summary:
Record: 32-50, Finished 4th in NBA Central Division
Pythagorean W-L: 33-49 (21st of 30)
SRS: -3.10 (21st of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 97.1 (2nd of 30)
Offensive Rating: 103.7 (26th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 106.8 (14th of 30)

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | Comments Off

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Charlotte Bobcats

22nd October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Charlotte Bobcats

Coach: Larry Brown

2010 Summary:
Record: 44-38, Finished 4th in NBA Southeast Division
Pythagorean W-L: 45-37 (15th of 30)
SRS: 1.30 (15th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 90.4 (26th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 104.4 (24th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 102.8 (1st of 30)

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | Comments Off

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: New Jersey Nets

22nd October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

New Jersey Nets

Coach: Avery Johnson

2010 Summary:
Record: 12-70, Finished 5th in NBA Atlantic Division
Pythagorean W-L: 17-65 (30th of 30)
SRS: -8.93 (29th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.4 (24th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 100.6 (30th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.5 (25th of 30)

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | Comments Off

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Chicago Bulls

22nd October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Chicago Bulls

Coach: Tom Thibodeau

2010 Summary:
Record: 41-41, Finished 3rd in NBA Central Division
Pythagorean W-L: 36-46 (18th of 30)
SRS: -1.63 (18th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 93.1 (11th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 103.5 (27th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 105.3 (11th of 30)

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | 1 Comment »