Archive for the 'NBA Draft' Category

As you might imagine, Len Bias' name comes up quite a bit in Bill Simmons' new Book of Basketball. As a lifelong Celtics fan, I understand the emotions that surround the very mention of Bias' name -- for instance, my father was convinced Bias was going to be almost as good as Bird, and take the torch from Larry Legend as he extended the C's dynasty into the 1990s. (Instead, Reggie Lewis died, and we got Rick Pitino & Antoine Walker. Go figure.) So I can see why Bias is such a burning "what if?" for the NBA, and Celtics fans in particular, because he represents untapped potential and a posthumous legend that's only grown by leaps and bounds since his tragic demise. But I want to know -- coldly, rationally -- how good Bias could have legitimately been if we put down the green-tinted glasses: What were his college numbers like? What were people saying about him before the draft? In other words, I want to remove the James Dean aspect from the Bias story and focus solely on the facts at hand.

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Let me ask you a question: Would you rather have Blake Griffin for the next 3 years, or 3 years of one of the 5 best players in basketball last year? How about one of the Top 10? One of the Top 20? In other words, how does the #1 pick typically fare during his 1st contract when compared to one of the league's best players from the year before he was drafted?

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Following up on his excellent draft previews, Ed Weiland of HoopsAnalyst offers up his grades on last Thursday's draft, including an interesting comparison between the bevy of point guards in this year's draft class and the iconic group of quarterbacks taken in the 1983 NFL draft. (Ty Lawson = Dan Marino!)

Here's the final part of Ed Weiland's draft coverage over at HoopsAnalyst:

NBA Draft 2009: Centers
NBA Draft 2009: Power Forwards
NBA Draft 2009: Combo Forwards

On Monday I assigned expected values to the top 60 picks in the NBA draft, both in terms of career value and value in their first four seasons, and on Tuesday I looked at some of the biggest draft busts since the merger. Today I am going to turn that around and look at some of the best draft picks in history.

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On Monday I assigned expected values to the top 60 picks in the NBA draft, both in terms of career value and value in their first four seasons. Today I would like to use that information to look at some of the worst draft picks since the merger.

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Hate how the NBA's age limit creates automatic "one and done" situations for colleges? Here is ESPN's Steve Delsohn's report from Monday's Outside the Lines, regarding the impact of the rule on the NCAA game, focusing on how exactly coaches are supposed to deal with players who have great talent but are not in the program for the long haul. Meanwhile, Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett -- two of the more notable preps-to-pros of the past 15 years -- have led their teams to NBA titles in back-to-back seasons. So does the one-and-done rule make sense for the pros or college? What do you think?

It's draft season, when every team is a contender and every fan hopes (and prays) that their team makes the right pick. But if you're a fan of a team with a lottery pick, how optimistic should you be? How much is that fifth overall pick really worth? By looking at data from past drafts we can get an estimate of how much each pick is worth, and once we have those expected values we can answer any number of interesting questions.

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With the draft swiftly approaching, it's time to examine the specific needs of the teams with the top 10 picks from a statistical perspective. For this exercise, we'll use our various metrics to see the areas in which each squad was a lacking a year ago, we'll see which rotation players the team may lose via free agency, and finally (with a little help from Kenpom.com) we'll look at which prospects in this year's draft may help them where they need it most.

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Continuing his series on the draft, Ed Weiland of HoopsAnalyst breaks down the incoming small forwards in this summer's draft class. It's a hard group to get a read on, but it doesn't exactly look like there are any potential superstars this year.