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Archive for the 'Offseason' Category

Wade-Bosh, and Other Wing-Big Combos

7th July 2010

Last week I looked at the possibility of a LeBron James-Dwyane Wade "Big Two", as well as a James-Wade-Chris Bosh "Big Three", and now it looks like a Bosh-Wade combo is going to happen at the very least (whether it includes LeBron or not is still an open question). Wade & Bosh combined for 63.3 % of their teams' possessions last season, so let's look at other newly-formed Wing/Big combos from the past to see if they're the highest-usage inside-outside duo ever put together.

The rules:

  • The combo must consist of 1 "Big" (C, PF) and 1 "Wing" (SG, SF).
  • The combo had to play at least 500 minutes during both the season in question and the year before.
  • The combo must include at least 1 player who wasn't on the team the year before.

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Posted in Analysis, Offseason, Statgeekery, Win Shares | 18 Comments »

Layups: Updates From LeBron James’ Facebook Newsfeed

2nd July 2010

From Slate: "LeBron James is no longer in a relationship"...

(H/T: Ball Don't Lie)

Posted in Just For Fun, Layups, Offseason | Comments Off

How Much Would Losing LeBron James Hurt the Cavaliers?

2nd July 2010

As I watched Byron Scott's introductory press conference as head coach of the Cavs, the spectre of LeBron James' free agency hung over the proceedings (and justifiably so). Scott is a fine coach and has been successful in New Jersey & New Orleans, but I wonder what he could possibly be getting himself into -- I mean, Brian Shaw was reportedly Cleveland's first choice, but in the end he couldn't commit to the team without knowing James would be back. That's looking like a smart move, because now the unenviable question facing Scott is this: if James is gone, can the Cavs even be close to competitive without The King?

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Posted in Analysis, Offseason, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 8 Comments »

Pierce, Nowitzki and Other Single-Team Lifers

2nd July 2010

After opting out of his contract and briefly causing panic in New England, Paul Pierce has apparently come to terms with the Boston Celtics in a deal that will keep him in green and white for four more years (and possibly for the remainder of his career). Meanwhile, Dirk Nowitzki was in New York to meet with various suitors, but he has since made his way to Dallas, and the Mavs are "cautiously optimistic" that he'll be back with them next season, locked in with a long-term deal similar to Pierce's.

It only seems like yesterday when these guys entered the league, but they're actually making impressive progress on the list of all-time leaders for career games played with one (and only one) team:

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Posted in Analysis, Offseason | 10 Comments »

Layups: How Many Max Players Can Teams Afford?

1st July 2010

Larry Coon -- proprietor of the NBA Salary Cap FAQ -- is the undisputed king of internet capology, and his knowledge is obviously in high, high, high demand right now. This week, he has a very informative post at ESPN about what kind of cap space each team could possibly create for themselves this summer.

Posted in Layups, Offseason | Comments Off

The James-Wade-Bosh Big Three, Part II

1st July 2010

Following up on yesterday's post about newly-formed "Big Twos", here are notable "Big Threes" from throughout NBA history, formed by taking at least 1 established star from another team. Just to be clear, this is not a list of the Greatest Big Threes Ever; rather, this is a list of combinations featuring players who had been the biggest focal points of their teams the previous year, and then were put together on one team, with each having to adjust to not being the clear-cut alpha dog anymore. Let's go to the list: (note that none of these would even come close to matching the 97.3% combined possession rate the proposed LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh trio had in 2009-10)

1. Michael Jordan, Jerry Stackhouse, & Larry Hughes, 2003 Wizards
Previous Combined %Poss: 89.6% (Jordan - 34.6%; Stackhouse - 32.1%; Hughes - 22.9%)
Previous Team Offensive Rating: 104.8
New Team Offensive Rating: 103.0
New Split of Possessions: 27% (Jordan) - 27% (Stackhouse) - 21% (Hughes)

Comparability to James-Wade-Bosh: Low. We touched on this one yesterday, but it's tough to remember that Larry Hughes was also added to that Wizards team after being the primary facilitator on a Warriors squad that won just 21 games in 2002. The raw talent was certainly there for this group, but they were in the wrong place at the wrong time -- Jordan had peaked 5-10 years earlier, Hughes wouldn't peak until 2 years later, and Stack was what he always was, a high-volume/low-efficiency gunner.

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Posted in Analysis, Offseason, Statgeekery | 24 Comments »

The James-Wade-Bosh Big Three, Part I

30th June 2010

It probably won't happen for salary-cap reasons (somebody who's considered a "max player" will have to take less than max money), but rumors swirled this week that prized free agents LeBron James and Chris Bosh would join Dwyane Wade in Miami after an alleged weekend "summit" in which the 3 stars met to discuss their (collective?) futures.

Whether it happens or not, I was wondering how unprecedented this would be in NBA history. We would see a guy who used 35.1% of team possessions when on the court last year (Wade) combine with a guy who used 34.0% (James) and a guy who used 28.1% (Bosh). Has anything like this ever happened outside of an Olympic setting? How would the chemistry work -- who would take the big shot? Would they trade it around? Who would be the Alpha Dog? Can you succeed with three Alpha Dogs?

Let's look to history, starting today with "Big Twos" that were formed (I'll look at "Big Threes" tomorrow). If Wade and James join forces, it would represent 2 teammates who had combined to use 69.2% of possessions the previous year... Has this ever happened before?

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Posted in Analysis, Offseason | 20 Comments »

Site Features: 2010 Free Agent Tracker

29th June 2010

Excited about this summer's epic free agent class? Now you can track free agent signings here at Basketball-Reference.com:

2010 Free Agent Tracker

That page includes every restricted and unrestricted free agent available this summer, complete with their 09-10 stats. We'll also be updating the table every morning, so it will always be up-to-date on the latest signings.

Let the Bron-sanity begin!

Posted in Announcements, Offseason, Site Features | 1 Comment »

2010 NBA Draft: Player Comparisons (Lottery Picks)

25th June 2010

I love the way the web's best draft sites provide comparable NBA players for draftees, because -- while totally unscientific -- it provides a decent framework upon which to build your view of (and expectations for) each rookie. Today, I'm going to look at the comparisons from Basketball Prospectus' Kevin Pelton, HoopsHype, DraftExpress, and NBADraft.net for each lottery pick, and show the best seasons (by Win Shares) for each comp to get a feel for what they may turn into, including potential strengths and weaknesses.

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Posted in Analysis, NBA Draft, Offseason | 3 Comments »

Chris Paul — Still the NBA’s Best PG — On the Trading Block?

24th June 2010

According to ESPN, the Hornets could be open to trade offers for Chris Paul.

WTF?

Contrary to what you may have heard from various talking heads during the playoffs, Chris Paul is still the best PG in the NBA. He was the best PG in the NBA in 2008, when he led the league in Win Shares, was 2nd in PER (behind LeBron James), and finished 2nd in MVP shares. He was the best PG in the NBA in 2009, when he was 2nd in the league in WS, 3rd in PER (behind James & Dwyane Wade), and 5th in MVP shares. And yes, even in an injury-plagued 2010 season, Paul was still the NBA's top PG when healthy -- he still led all PGs with a minimum of 1700 MP in WS/48 and PER.

What's the matter? You're one of those luddites who still doesn't believe the metrics? Fine, Chris Paul is still the NBA's best PG even if you use MVP voting, the most conventional of wisdoms:

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Posted in Analysis, Offseason, Rants & Ramblings | 34 Comments »