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Archive for the 'Statgeekery' Category

Playoff Preview: #1 Chicago vs. #5 Atlanta

29th April 2011

Chicago Bulls

62-20, 1st in NBA Central Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Tom Thibodeau (62-20)

PTS/G: 98.6 (20th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 91.3 (2nd of 30)
SRS: 6.53 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (23rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.3 (11th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (1st of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (1st of 30)

Arena: United Center ▪ Attendance: 893,462 (1st of 30)

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Posted in Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 8 Comments »

BBR Rankings: (Almost) Post-Round 1 Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings

29th April 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on April 28, 2011:

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Posted in BBR Rankings, Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery | 11 Comments »

Playoff RAPM Power Rankings

21st April 2011

What happens if you create power rankings using Jeremias Engelmann's 4-year Regularized Plus-Minus ratings (the most predictive version of APM) and each playoff team's distribution of minutes through two games?

Take a look:

Team MP Offense Defense Overall
MIA 479 11.0 6.2 17.0
LAL 482 6.9 6.9 13.9
BOS 479 4.1 9.0 13.2
POR 479 6.3 6.6 13.1
ORL 482 7.7 5.3 12.9
DAL 480 6.7 5.9 12.6
SAS 480 6.3 5.9 11.9
DEN 480 5.8 4.9 10.6
CHI 478 3.8 6.5 10.3
OKC 481 4.0 5.4 9.3
MEM 480 3.0 5.4 8.2
NYK 482 7.3 -1.0 6.4
PHI 479 2.1 3.5 5.5
NOH 480 2.7 2.7 5.4
ATL 481 2.1 3.3 5.3
IND 479 1.7 2.9 4.7

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Posted in Analysis, Insane ideas, Statgeekery | 19 Comments »

Danny Crawford and the Mavs

19th April 2011

ESPN had an interesting news story today about Danny Crawford's history with the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs:

NBA playoffs 2011: Referee Danny Crawford assigned to Game 2 of Dallas Mavericks-Portland Trail Blazers series - ESPN Dallas

The gist is this:

"The Mavs have a 2-16 record in playoff games officiated by Crawford, including 16 losses in the last 17 games. Dallas is 48-41 in the rest of their playoff games during the ownership tenure of Mark Cuban, who has been fined millions of dollars in the last 11 years for publicly complaining about officiating."

At the risk of running afoul of the Wyatt Earp Effect again, what is the probability that this has happened due to chance alone?

In his book Mathletics, Wayne Winston finds that the final margin of victory  in an NBA game can be approximated by a normal random variable with a mean of the point spread and a standard deviation of 12. Using that knowledge and the handy chart ESPN provided at the bottom of their story on Crawford, we can calculate the probability of Dallas winning each of their Crawford-officiated games since 2001:

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Posted in Analysis, Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Playoffs, Rants & Ramblings, Statgeekery | 36 Comments »

Layups: NBA.com Statscube

19th April 2011

In case you haven't already seen it, NBA.com just launched a sweet stat tool called StatsCube:

StatsCube - Advanced basketball statistics for NBA players and teams on NBA.com

John Schuhmann had been using it in his columns for a while, but now the public can sift through the data for themselves.

Posted in Layups, Statgeekery | 3 Comments »

Best Road Performances in Opening-Round Game 1s?

18th April 2011

It was a banner weekend for underdogs, as the away teams kicked off the 2011 Playoffs with 3 wins, including victories by the Western Conference #8 and #7 seeds. How do the road teams' performances in this set of opening-round game 1s compare to other years since the playoffs expanded in 1984?

Let's take a look (all numbers from the perspective of the average road team in Game 1 of the 1st round):

Year roadW roadL WPct Margin expected Mgn Diff
2011 3 5 0.375 -0.63 -7.37 6.75
2010 1 7 0.125 -7.88 -4.88 -2.99
2009 4 4 0.500 -5.88 -7.46 1.58
2008 2 6 0.250 -7.13 -6.25 -0.88
2007 3 5 0.375 -2.75 -7.71 4.96
2006 1 7 0.125 -10.38 -6.14 -4.24
2005 2 6 0.250 -8.25 -6.23 -2.02
2004 0 8 0.000 -14.75 -7.02 -7.73
2003 4 4 0.500 -1.13 -6.95 5.82
2002 1 7 0.125 -8.25 -5.92 -2.33
2001 3 5 0.375 -1.25 -5.03 3.78
2000 2 6 0.250 -3.63 -6.29 2.67
1999 2 6 0.250 -7.75 -6.41 -1.34
1998 2 6 0.250 -8.13 -6.67 -1.45
1997 1 7 0.125 -15.13 -7.42 -7.70
1996 3 5 0.375 -5.00 -7.94 2.94
1995 1 7 0.125 -17.63 -6.90 -10.73
1994 2 6 0.250 -8.88 -6.41 -2.46
1993 2 6 0.250 -10.75 -8.19 -2.56
1992 1 7 0.125 -12.50 -9.63 -2.87
1991 3 5 0.375 -1.75 -9.25 7.50
1990 0 8 0.000 -11.75 -8.46 -3.29
1989 2 6 0.250 -4.75 -9.61 4.86
1988 0 8 0.000 -10.00 -9.86 -0.14
1987 1 7 0.125 -12.00 -10.24 -1.76
1986 1 7 0.125 -16.25 -9.91 -6.34
1985 1 7 0.125 -11.38 -7.78 -3.60
1984 3 5 0.375 -2.00 -7.87 5.87

(Click column headers to sort by each category.)

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Posted in Analysis, History, Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Trivia | 3 Comments »

Playoff Preview: #4 Oklahoma City vs. #5 Denver

15th April 2011

Oklahoma City Thunder

55-27, 1st in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Scott Brooks (55-27)

PTS/G: 104.8 (5th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 101.0 (18th of 30)
SRS: 3.81 (9th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.7 (13th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.2 (5th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.2 (15th of 30)
Expected W-L: 51-31 (9th of 30)

Arena: Ford Center ▪ Attendance: 726,071 (14th of 30)

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Posted in Playoffs, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 6 Comments »

Playoff Preview: #3 Dallas vs. #6 Portland

15th April 2011

Dallas Mavericks

57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)

PTS/G: 100.2 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 96.0 (10th of 30)
SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)

Arena: American Airlines Center ▪ Attendance: 803,968 (6th of 30)

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Posted in Playoffs, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 1 Comment »

Playoff Preview: #2 LA Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans

15th April 2011

Los Angeles Lakers

57-25, 1st in NBA Pacific Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Phil Jackson (57-25)

PTS/G: 101.5 (9th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 95.4 (8th of 30)
SRS: 6.01 (3rd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.7 (21st of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.0 (6th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 104.3 (6th of 30)
Expected W-L: 58-24 (3rd of 30)

Arena: STAPLES Center ▪ Attendance: 778,777 (8th of 30)

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Posted in Playoffs, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 6 Comments »

Playoff Preview: #1 San Antonio vs. #8 Memphis

15th April 2011

San Antonio Spurs

61-21, 1st in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Gregg Popovich (61-21)

PTS/G: 103.7 (6th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 98.0 (14th of 30)
SRS: 5.86 (4th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.3 (14th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.8 (2nd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.6 (11th of 30)
Expected W-L: 56-26 (6th of 30)

Arena: AT&T Center ▪ Attendance: 750,879 (12th of 30)

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Posted in Playoffs, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 4 Comments »