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Archive for the 'Win Shares' Category

2012 APBRmetric Player Rankings: By Position

11th July 2011

As a follow-up to this afternoon's list of the Top 593 Players of 2012, here's a positional breakdown for the 452 players who played at least 1 game in 2011:

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Posted in Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Projections, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 66 Comments »

The (APBRmetric) Top 593 Players of 2012

11th July 2011

(Note: File this squarely under "Insane Ideas".)

Watching one of the NFL Network's "Top 100 Players of 2011" shows this weekend, I was inspired to create a similar list for the NBA using APBRmetric stats. But why stop at 100? Instead, I ranked all 593 players who played at least 1 NBA game since 2008-09.

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Posted in Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Projections, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 35 Comments »

Which Rate Stats Correlate More With a Player’s Role Than His Skill?

9th July 2011

Here's a quick-n-dirty study I ran this morning... The idea is this:

Some stats seem to be more correlated with a player's role than his actual skill. Take a player out of the role, plug another similar player in, the new player produces just like the old one (and the old one can't "take the stats with him" to his new destination).

How can we quantify this, though? Well, let's identify players whose circumstances changed. I took every team since 1978 and assigned its players to 10 "roles" -- primary PG, backup PG, primary SG, etc. -- based on my detailed position file and where the players ranked on the team in terms of minutes played. I then isolated every player in that sample who:

  • Played at least 500 minutes in back-to-back seasons
  • Was between age 24 and 34 in back-to-back seasons (to filter out potential aging effects)
  • Moved to a new "role"
  • Was replacing a player who played >= 500 MP in the role and was between age 24 and 34 the previous season

This leaves us with 1,866 player-seasons to look at. For each of those, I need to know which predicts the player's performance in Year Y better -- his own stats from Year Y-1, or the Year Y-1 stats of the player whose role he took?

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Posted in Analysis, Insane ideas, Statgeekery, Win Shares | 9 Comments »

Two Minor Site Additions

10th June 2011

This is just a short post to announce a couple of minor additions to the site:

  1. I added an option to the Player Season Finder to search for total seasons matching criteria. This option will allow you to find out who had the most seasons with 2000 or more points in NBA history, who had the most seasons with 10 or more Win Shares in NBA history, and so on.
  2. Speaking of Win Shares, I have finally extended them back to the 1946-47 BAA season (i.e., the first season of what is now known as the NBA). Previously they had only gone back to the 1951-52 season because that was the first season that minutes played were an official statistic. As one might expect, George Mikan dominates this five-year period.

Posted in Announcements, Play Index, Win Shares | 14 Comments »

Keeping Score: They Won a Lot of Games, and Soon a Title – NYTimes.com

2nd June 2011

Keeping Score: They Won a Lot of Games, and Soon a Title

At the NY Times, I highlight the unprecedented group of superstars currently seeking their first ring.

Posted in History, Layups, NY Times, Win Shares | 4 Comments »

NBA Finals Preview: Miami vs. Dallas

28th May 2011

Miami Heat

58-24, 1st in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Erik Spoelstra (58-24)

PTS/G: 102.1 (8th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.6 (6th of 30)
SRS: 6.76 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.9 (20th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.7 (3rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.5 (5th of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (2nd of 30)

Arena: AmericanAirlines Arena ▪ Attendance: 810,930 (4th of 30)

Playoffs:
NBA Finals versus Dallas Mavericks
Won NBA Eastern Conference Finals (4-1) versus Chicago Bulls
Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-1) versus Boston Celtics
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Philadelphia 76ers
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Posted in Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 8 Comments »

The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

19th May 2011

Bill Simmons and BS Report HoF guest Chuck Klosterman are discussing Larry Bird vs. Dirk Nowitzki in a podcast. Simmons says that the advanced stats place Dirk in the same category as Bird, perhaps even giving Dirk the edge, and he's not sure how he feels about this.

I wasn't sure how I felt, either, so I looked up the numbers. Here is a monster table with their advanced stats -- each has played exactly 13 years:

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Posted in Analysis, History, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Totally Useless, Win Shares | 224 Comments »

Playoff Preview: #3 Dallas vs. #4 Oklahoma City/#8 Memphis

14th May 2011

Dallas Mavericks

57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)

PTS/G: 100.2 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 96.0 (10th of 30)
SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)

Arena: American Airlines Center ▪ Attendance: 803,968 (6th of 30)

Playoffs:
Won NBA Western Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus Los Angeles Lakers
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Portland Trail Blazers

Pos Roster G MP poMPG SPM RAPM 4yAPM PER WS/48
PG Jason Kidd 90 2989 33.6 3.99 0.0 1.9 14.7 0.119
SG Jason Terry 92 2887 32.3 1.43 2.8 1.9 16.8 0.116
SF Shawn Marion 90 2562 30.9 -0.21 -2.3 0.8 16.6 0.116
PF Dirk Nowitzki 83 2885 38.1 5.08 7.0 7.8 23.8 0.217
C Tyson Chandler 84 2356 29.7 2.66 3.5 2.6 17.9 0.215
SF Peja Stojakovic 43 860 24.3 0.74 2.0 3.5 15.4 0.136
PG Jose Barea 91 1847 17.8 -1.81 0.4 -1.7 14.8 0.093
C Brendan Haywood 82 1506 17.5 -3.34 -1.2 1.4 11.4 0.101
SG D. Stevenson 82 1286 12.8 -3.21 -0.9 0.4 9.3 0.069
SG Corey Brewer 74 1528 3.6 -0.58 0.0 -0.3 11.1 0.037
PF Brian Cardinal 60 625 1.8 0.57 -0.8 1.1 9.9 0.136
C Ian Mahinmi 58 493 2.5 0.28 0.7 0.0 13.7 0.177

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Posted in Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | Comments Off

Playoff Preview: #1 Chicago vs. #2 Miami

14th May 2011

Chicago Bulls

62-20, 1st in NBA Central Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Tom Thibodeau (62-20)

PTS/G: 98.6 (20th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 91.3 (2nd of 30)
SRS: 6.53 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (23rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.3 (11th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (1st of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (1st of 30)

Arena: United Center ▪ Attendance: 893,462 (1st of 30)

Playoffs:
Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-2) versus Atlanta Hawks
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Indiana Pacers

Pos Roster G MP poMPG SPM RAPM 4yAPM PER WS/48
PG Derrick Rose 92 3466 40.0 5.67 3.4 1.9 23.9 0.211
SG Keith Bogans 93 1675 19.5 -0.61 0.1 0.2 9.4 0.123
SF Luol Deng 93 3683 43.2 1.81 3.6 3.8 15.6 0.152
PF Carlos Boozer 70 2222 30.9 2.17 0.5 2.2 18.0 0.142
C Joakim Noah 59 1936 32.7 3.72 0.7 2.4 18.8 0.208
SG Kyle Korver 93 1850 18.3 0.49 1.7 2.5 12.8 0.145
PF Taj Gibson 91 1935 17.5 -0.66 1.5 0.8 14.6 0.145
SG Ronnie Brewer 92 1934 13.9 1.29 0.9 0.9 13.6 0.144
C Omer Asik 93 1092 9.4 -1.81 2.9 4.0 11.3 0.125
PG C.J. Watson 93 1190 9.0 -1.07 0.0 1.2 12.3 0.079
C Kurt Thomas 58 1234 9.3 0.48 -0.7 1.0 10.2 0.132
SG Rasual Butler 50 777 2.3 -7.07 -1.4 -1.8 6.4 -0.007

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Posted in Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 8 Comments »

Playoff Preview: #4 Oklahoma City vs. #8 Memphis

30th April 2011

Oklahoma City Thunder

55-27, 1st in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Scott Brooks (55-27)

PTS/G: 104.8 (5th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 101.0 (18th of 30)
SRS: 3.81 (9th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.7 (13th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.2 (5th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.2 (15th of 30)
Expected W-L: 51-31 (9th of 30)

Arena: Ford Center ▪ Attendance: 726,071 (14th of 30)

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Posted in Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 4 Comments »