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Archive for the 'Win Shares' Category

Playoff Preview: #1 Chicago vs. #8 Indiana

15th April 2011

Chicago Bulls

62-20, 1st in NBA Central Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Tom Thibodeau (62-20)

SRS: 6.53 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.4 (23rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.3 (11th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 100.3 (1st of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (1st of 30)

Arena: United Center ▪ Attendance: 893,462 (1st of 30)

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Posted in Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | Comments Off

BBR Mailbag: Individuals w/ the Highest % of Team Win Shares

15th March 2011

Frequent BBR commenter "Panic" has a good topic for a data dump today:

"I have a modest proposal for a data dump, if you haven't already looked at this: Kevin Love has 10.9 win shares and his team has an expected 20 wins, for a Love-contributed 54.5% of wins, by far the league's highest percentage of his team's wins by one player. Where does this measure up historically? I'm guessing below maybe Bellamy's rookie year and the Warriors when Arizin was in Korea, maybe a Wilt season or two. Any in the modern era?"

Let's take a look -- here are the players with the highest ratio of individual Win Shares to team wins in a single season (numbers thru Sunday's games):

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Posted in BBR Mailbag, Trivia, Win Shares | 15 Comments »

The Don Nelson All-Star Team

5th March 2011

Hanging out with Hoopism's Bailey brothers (Jason & Matt) and Harold Shanafield of Haystack Scouting on Friday night, we had a great conversation about the "ultimate teams" of a given coach. The idea is this: if you had a certain coach, and you had to play a pickup game in his signature style with players from NBA history, who do you pick to play?

Specifically, we were joking around and picking Don Nelson all-stars, thinking of freakish lineups with a SF at the 1, a PG at the 2, a SG at the 3, a SF at the 4, and a PF at the 5. Jason had a few too many beers and picked Travis Outlaw as his PG, I called on Antoine Walker's services at point forward, Matt built a team around Anthony Mason, and I also think Wang Zhizhi was somehow involved. This was all for fun, but what if we actually picked the players who put up the most Win Shares while playing for Nelson?

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Posted in Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Rants & Ramblings, Totally Useless, Win Shares | 26 Comments »

How Would You Fill the “NBA Hall of Relevance”?

24th February 2011

I've been thinking about this concept for a while, but I want to throw it out there for the readers and see what they think...

Everyone knows we already have a Basketball Hall of Fame. But from an NBA perspective, a lot of people think it's broken -- as the argument goes, too many non-NBA people get inducted while great NBA players are left out in the cold. So there's a growing push to create an NBA-only Hall of Fame. How do you stock such a Hall, though? It seems like the other major sports have a pretty clear focus in their induction processes: baseball's hall is largely about longevity and statistical milestones, while football's hall is heavily focused on guys who won championships and/or changed the game.

So what should the NBA's angle be? I want to propose that this hypothetical Hall be about "relevance". As in, who were the relevant players in a given season or span of seasons? Who were the essential names? When you tell the Story Of The NBA, which players would it be inexcusable not to mention? If the Hall of Fame is about celebrating the history of the league, then including the guys that fundamentally shaped the narrative is a pretty good mandate. And if we can tell the NBA's story without mentioning a certain player, it's hard to argue that he belongs in the Hall.

The good news is that you can generate the majority of this list by setting up a basic checklist of requirements. But I want to know what you think those requirements are.

Off the top of my head, here's a basic list of requirements that capture the "relevant" players each season:

  • Top 3 in each season's MVP voting
  • Every Sporting News MVP
  • Every season's 1st-team All-NBAers
  • Every Finals MVP
  • Top 3 players on each NBA champion
  • Best player on Finals runner-up
  • Best player on team with NBA's best record
  • PER leader for seasons 2000-present
  • Win Shares leader for seasons 2004-present

This is the list of players generated by those criteria:

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Posted in Hall of Fame, History, Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Rants & Ramblings, Win Shares | 53 Comments »

The Best Players Ever to be Traded Midseason

22nd February 2011

Well, it's (quasi) official now: Carmelo Anthony is a member of the New York Knicks.

Finally, we can put aside the trade speculation and ask the really important questions about the deal. No, I'm not talking about how this shifts the balance of power in the East, or if 'Melo and Amare Stoudemire can coexist in the Big Apple... I'm talking about where Carmelo ranks among all-time players who were traded in the middle of the season.

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Posted in Data Dump, History, Statgeekery, Trivia, Win Shares | 37 Comments »

Who Are the Most Similar Players to This Year’s All-Stars?

19th February 2011

Reading yesterday about Dave Duerson's tragic passing made me think about the player similarity system he inspired at PFR, and that in turn caused me to remember a similar system I concocted for basketball players.

Using the methodology I outlined, who are the most comparable players to this year's All-Stars in terms of career quality and shape (through their current age)?

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Posted in All-Star Game, History, Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Statgeekery, Totally Useless, Win Shares | 10 Comments »

2011 APBRmetric All-Stars

9th February 2011

Just as we did last season, let's take a look at which players would have made the All-Star teams if various advanced stats were the only criteria in the voting. To pick teams, I used the official positional designations from the 2011 ballot; each team must have 4 guards, 4 forwards, and 2 centers, with room for 2 wild cards from any position to fill out the roster. Players in bold are starters; "*" designates the player as a member of the real-life All-Star team.

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Posted in All-Star Game, Analysis, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 142 Comments »

Layups: Weighting Team Age by Win Shares

13th January 2011

As a follow-up to their post about minute-weighted team age, Hoopism took the advice of our commenters and re-ran team ages, this time weighted by Win Shares:

Mapping Average Age to Success in the NBA

Comparing side-by-side with the raw roster averages, this has the effect of allowing you to see which teams' most productive players skew especially young (Miami, Orlando, LA Clippers) or old (Phoenix, Boston, Houston).

Posted in Layups, Statgeekery, Win Shares | 7 Comments »

PI Finds: Decade-by-Decade NBA Win Shares Leaders

5th January 2011

Inspired by yesterday's quiz about the 1990s All-NBA Teams, here are the Win Shares leaders for each decade (made possible by the handy BBR Player Season Finder):

The Fifties (1952-59):

Rk Player From To Tm G MP PER TS% eFG% OWS DWS WS WS/48
1 Dolph Schayes 1952 1959 SYR 566 20784 23.7 0.494 0.382 57.8 37.4 95.2 0.220
2 Neil Johnston 1952 1959 PHW 516 18298 24.7 0.534 0.444 73.9 18.1 92.0 0.241
3 Ed Macauley 1952 1959 TOT 506 18071 20.4 0.523 0.436 60.6 13.4 73.9 0.196
4 Paul Arizin 1952 1959 PHW 419 16559 21.3 0.511 0.424 56.8 13.0 69.8 0.202
5 Bill Sharman 1952 1959 BOS 548 18339 18.3 0.499 0.424 52.0 15.6 67.6 0.177
6 Vern Mikkelsen 1952 1959 MNL 567 18443 18.6 0.483 0.403 39.0 26.3 65.3 0.170
7 Larry Foust 1952 1959 TOT 552 17565 21.0 0.493 0.409 43.5 20.0 63.6 0.174
8 Bob Pettit 1955 1959 TOT 357 13345 26.9 0.499 0.421 42.4 19.5 61.9 0.223
9 Bob Cousy 1952 1959 BOS 546 20986 20.6 0.452 0.372 34.8 25.7 60.5 0.138
10 Harry Gallatin 1952 1958 TOT 496 15813 21.5 0.508 0.403 42.4 17.7 60.1 0.182
11 George Yardley 1954 1959 TOT 399 13365 20.9 0.495 0.416 36.1 13.4 49.5 0.178
12 Clyde Lovellette 1954 1959 TOT 423 12814 22.1 0.482 0.436 29.4 17.2 46.6 0.174
13 George Mikan 1952 1956 MNL 243 8350 26.9 0.467 0.389 21.0 22.2 43.2 0.249
14 Carl Braun 1953 1959 NYK 500 16263 16.0 0.473 0.396 30.3 11.4 41.7 0.123
15 Bobby Wanzer 1952 1957 ROC 373 12128 17.1 0.487 0.391 27.1 12.4 39.5 0.156
16 Slater Martin 1952 1959 TOT 546 20133 11.7 0.440 0.365 16.2 21.4 37.6 0.090
17 Kenny Sears 1956 1959 NYK 285 9768 19.0 0.542 0.448 31.5 6.1 37.6 0.185
18 Dick McGuire 1952 1959 TOT 538 15704 15.4 0.458 0.393 20.6 16.4 37.1 0.113
19 Jack Coleman 1952 1958 TOT 498 16479 15.7 0.454 0.420 16.2 20.7 36.8 0.107
20 Chuck Share 1952 1959 TOT 487 10796 17.7 0.493 0.403 21.1 15.1 36.2 0.161
21 Ray Felix 1954 1959 TOT 432 11317 19.4 0.491 0.417 26.4 8.3 34.7 0.147
22 Paul Seymour 1952 1959 SYR 483 14660 13.8 0.437 0.356 12.9 18.7 31.6 0.104
23 Arnie Risen 1952 1958 TOT 449 12690 16.6 0.451 0.374 14.0 17.5 31.5 0.119
24 George King 1952 1958 TOT 411 13408 14.1 0.441 0.382 12.9 18.5 31.4 0.113
25 Jack Twyman 1956 1959 TOT 288 9415 18.4 0.488 0.432 22.3 8.9 31.2 0.159

All-Decade WS team: G Bill Sharman (67.6) - G Bob Cousy (60.5) - F Dolph Schayes (95.2) - F Paul Arizin (69.8) - C Neil Johnston (92.0)

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Posted in All-Decade Teams, History, Play Index, Site Features, Win Shares | 25 Comments »

BBR Mailbag: Most One-Dimensional Players

7th December 2010

Here's a quick mailbag from "Imadogg", who writes:

"I was wondering who the best 'one-sided' players of all time are. For example, when thinking of the best offensive players ever, a name like Jordan or Wilt might come to mind, but no one would dare call them one-sided or only offense. On the other hand, when I think of Steve Nash, I think of perfection on one side of the ball and nothing at all on the other. On defense, guys like Dennis Rodman, Ben Wallace, or Dikembe Mutombo come to mind as amazing defenders who you would prefer never to give the ball to."

Imadogg went on to suggest looking at the percentage of a player's Win Shares devoted to offense vs. defense, so I'm going to take that approach when determining the most "one-dimensional" players in post-1952 NBA history.

I should note, one issue with using Win Shares is that they can sometimes be negative, which totally wreaks havoc on an exercise like this. But as a kludge, I just zeroed out the negative OWS/DWS, and took the percentage of those totals devoted to each side of the ball.

Among players with 10,000 career minutes, here are the players most extremely biased toward offense:

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Posted in BBR Mailbag, History, Win Shares | 35 Comments »