(1) Statistical analysis can be a useful tool that can improve fundamental analysis.

(2) Statistical analysis is not a substitute for fundamental analysis.

That's the core issue that we're dealing with. I've seen too many stat geeks fly off the handle when their statistical conclusions are challenged. Conversely, the old-school people too often scoff at the numbers and miss opportunities to enhance their analysis.

I mean, come on. We all know that Kobe is one of the best players in the NBA right now, and Miami isn't one of the elite teams in the NBA so far. I don't think even stat geeks would argue that point. On the other hand, advanced stats often show why you need the 7-foot stiffs with horrible statistics or the point guards that average less than 5 assists a game - they're often better than one would think based on traditional statistics.

]]>But it could apply to his own stats -- in theory, you would calculate the non-Shaq 2000 Lakers' shooting percentage and weight that by (1 - Shaq's FGA%), weight Shaq's FG% by his FGA%, and estimate the Lakers' shooting % when he was on the floor. Combine that with the Lakers' opponents' FG%, and you could get a truer estimate of how many boards were available when he was in the game.

Then again, the TRB% formula isn't denominated in missed shots, but rather in team TRB + opponent TRB, so you'd have to find a relationship between the two to make it work. But the basic premise is that Shaq decreased the # of boards available to himself by making such a high % of his shots, while Telfair increased the # available by missing so many shots.

]]>Although Nick's idea for a Reb% tweak in #4 is intriguing. We can estimate the % of team shots the player takes while in the game, and we obviously know his rate of making/missing shots relative to his teammates, so I think we could adjust the estimated # of rebounds available based on those data points. I'll have to take a closer look at this.

]]>1) If I understand correctly, it doesn't not use the actual number of rebounds available while an individual player was on the floor, so much as it abstracts an estimate from the total rebounds available for the game (or is it season?) compared to the player's minutes and rebounds.

2) That being the case, has there been any thought given to the possibility of the overall number of rebounds available dramatically changing when certain players enter and leave the floor (think Shaq for most of his career, vs someone like Telfair)?

]]>*Not surprisingly both comments on the article are coming from the "If Kobe's not on the list, it's wrong" camp.*

Yes, that was predictable. I submitted a response, but I don't think I'll have the time nor the energy to stay on top of it. Any help that BBR readers can provide would be appreciated.

]]>Not surprisingly both comments on the article are coming from the "If Kobe's not on the list, it's wrong" camp.

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