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Archive for July, 2009

What’s Left in Sheed’s Tank?

31st July 2009

Having covered the moves made by the Lakers, Magic, and Cavaliers this offseason, we now turn our attention to the Boston Celtics, whose bid to repeat as champions in 2009 was derailed by a number of late-season injuries, including the especially catastrophic loss of Kevin Garnett for the entire playoffs. In the wake of that injury and the subsequent loss of Leon Powe, Boston was reduced to starting Glen Davis and giving significant minutes to Brian Scalabrine (!!) off the bench in their series loss to Orlando -- a series which they managed to extend to 7 games despite the patchwork frontcourt. So when Boston opted not to bring the injured Powe back (and they may not re-sign Davis, either, depending on the offer he draws from another team), it was clear they needed to revamp their big-man situation before the window permanently closed on the mighty triumvirate of Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen.

Enter Rasheed Wallace...

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Posted in Analysis, Offseason | 7 Comments »

Layups: Simmons on the Offseason

30th July 2009

In the style of this hilarious piece he did a few summers back, ESPN's always-entertaining Bill Simmons brings us his takes on the offseason's biggest storylines using quotes from "Almost Famous". From a statistical perspective I don't always agree with what he writes, but it's still always worth reading, if not simply for the humor and the references.

Posted in Just For Fun, Layups, Offseason | 8 Comments »

What’s Left in Shaq’s Tank?

29th July 2009

Not to be outdone by the Magic's draft-day acquisition of Vince Carter, the Cleveland Cavaliers pulled the trigger on a trade of their own on June 26, finalizing a deal for Phoenix's Shaquille O'Neal. It was a swap that had been bandied about at the trade deadline -- but ultimately not completed -- and when the Cavs were ousted in an Eastern Conference Finals upset by Orlando, more than a few observers pointed to GM Danny Ferry's unwillingness to acquire O'Neal in-season as a mistake that possibly cost them the series. But now that the supposed blunder has been rectified, O'Neal is officially a teammate of LeBron James (having come at the relatively low price of Sasha Pavlovic, Ben Wallace, cash, and a 2nd-round pick), and he joins a team that won a league-best 66 games a year ago. However, at age 37, how much can the Big Aristotle realistically add to Cleveland's championship chances?

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Posted in Analysis, Offseason | 23 Comments »

All-Decade Teams: Coaches of the 2000s

28th July 2009

When I wrote my post about the All-Decade Teams for the 2000s, I meant to include a section on coaches, but somehow it slipped my mind. Today I would like to make up for that omission by first explaining the system that I use, and then present my selections for the All-Decade Team coaches.

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Posted in All-Decade Teams | 9 Comments »

What’s Left In Vince’s Tank?

27th July 2009

As we all know, the Champs added Ron Artest this offseason, which (in the short term, at least) only makes them more of a threat to repeat next June. In addition, arguably the Lakers' three biggest challengers to the crown also made key moves for veteran stars this offseason in an attempt to keep pace with not only L.A., but one another as well. In Part 1 of a 3-part series, we'll look at the career path of Orlando's Vince Carter, and try to determine what the 33-year-old can offer to the defending Eastern Conference champions.

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Posted in Analysis, Offseason | 18 Comments »

All-Decade Teams: The 2000s

24th July 2009

Since we're nearing the end of another decade, I thought it would be interesting to come up with All-Decade teams for the 2000s. I know that technically the decade is not over yet, but the NBA has a split season, and since we've already crowned the 2009 NBA champions it seems to me that the 2008-09 season is a good breaking point.

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Posted in All-Decade Teams | 78 Comments »

BBR News: Transactions…Finally

23rd July 2009

Since BBR first came on the scene a little over five years ago, by far the most requested addition has been player transactions. Well, thanks to the work of the great Pete Palmer — plus an assist from yours truly — we now have player transactions for the entire history of the NBA. These transactions are listed on the player pages, as well as new team and league pages.

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Posted in Announcements | 4 Comments »

Adam Morrison, Meet Barry Parkhill

20th July 2009

Last time around, we ran a study using a system of estimating Win Shares in seasons prior to 1978, and I wanted to touch a little on how that was done. Basically, I ran an OLS regression on all pre-1978 players, based on player stats (plus age & height) from 1978-2007, that estimated their "missing" totals -- turnovers prior to '78, TO/BLK/STL prior to 1974, etc. Whenever team stats were available, I scaled up/down the individual numbers to match team totals. When team numbers weren't available, I had to estimate them as well using the same method, and then makle sure the individuals matched the teams. In other words, the team numbers always superceded the individual totals.

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Posted in General, History | 19 Comments »

More Aging Stuff

16th July 2009

In response to Tuesday's post about Win Shares and aging, reader Jason J thought about whether or not today's improved equipment (including much better shoes), training methods, and dietary regiments made it easier for older players to stick around in the NBA for longer periods of time. It's a great question, because the success of recent players like John Stockton, Karl Malone, Michael Jordan, Reggie Miller, Dikembe Mutombo, etc. well into their forties makes you wonder if modern basketball technology is helping older players extend their careers longer than ever.

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Posted in Analysis, History, Statgeekery, Win Shares | 9 Comments »

Win Shares and Aging

14th July 2009

...AKA part one of what I'm sure will be a very long series before we've said all we want to on the subject.

Now I'm preparing you guys ahead of time, this is mostly a data/graph dump, and there's a lot of selection bias going on here (then again, I challenge you to find an aging study where there isn't selection bias). But using a sample of all player-seasons since 1978 with >2000 MP, here are the numbers on how a player's age affects his rate of Win Shares per 3000 minutes. The first focus will be every player in the sample, and the average change in their WS3K by age:

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Posted in Analysis, History, Statgeekery, Win Shares | 6 Comments »