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Archive for August, 2009

Team Positional Production Allocation… or Something

7th August 2009

A quick post/data dump for Friday... When I was putting together some of the Win Shares-based lists we've been posting recently, I wondered how heavily each team relied on their frontcourt and backcourt, and whether or not that correlated to success. So, first I added up WS by a team's guards and their non-guards, making each into a percentage. Here are the most guard-heavy teams in terms of production this decade:

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Posted in Analysis, History, Win Shares | 9 Comments »

Layups: How Do Shooting Distributions Change At the End of Games?

6th August 2009

Jon Nichols has been doing some nice work with play-by-play data over at recently, and today he takes a look at how shooting tendencies change in the closing stages of games. The striking part of the data is how much more teams launch 3-pointers in the closing stages of the game (eschewing the midrange/post game in the process) than in the previous 46 minutes, showing just how much of an equalizing strategy the 3-point shot is for teams that trail late.

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40 Most Underrated & Overrated Seasons of the Decade

6th August 2009

Recently, Football Outsiders listed their 25 most underrated and overrated players of the decade (BTW, is anyone even surprised that FO favorite Bobby "Mr. 3rd Down" Engram showed up high on the former list, or that longtime whipping boy DeShaun Foster topped the latter?), and it got me to thinking about assembling a similar list for the NBA.

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Posted in All-Decade Teams, Win Shares | 9 Comments »

What’s Left in RJ’s Tank?

4th August 2009

Finishing out our series on big-name veterans who switched teams this summer, we turn to Richard Jefferson, acquired by the San Antonio Spurs in a predraft trade for Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas. Jefferson is not quite as old as the other guys we profiled in this series -- at 29, he's still theoretically hanging on to the tail end of his prime -- but just as with Shaq, VC, and 'Sheed, you get the distinct feeling when you look at RJ's career numbers that his best days have come and gone.

Is that feeling true, though? Is RJ done as a star? Or was he ever even a star in the first place? And what can the Spurs expect to get from him going forward? First, check out Jefferson's advanced numbers:

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Posted in Analysis, Offseason | 8 Comments »

Layups: Quantifying the “Ewing Theory”?

3rd August 2009

Seems like I've been running lots of Bill Simmons-related links recently for some reason... This one comes courtesy of Gravity and Levity (a great intellectual blog about science in general, and physics specifically, in case you want to check out some of the other posts there), which makes a really fascinating connection between Braess’s Paradox -- "closing a road can actually improve traffic" -- and Simmons' old "Ewing Theory", the observation that sometimes teams who lose their best player biggest star actually do better without him (so named after the '99 Knicks went to the Finals sans Patrick).

(H/T: hoopster101 at APBRmetrics.)

Posted in Layups | 11 Comments »