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Archive for May, 2010

Poll: Vote for the Fantasy Basketball Hall of Fame

5th May 2010

A select few in the annals of the game will be elected to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame, but those who don't make the cut shouldn't despair. If you compiled great conventional stats on losing teams, or powered many a fantasy league championship despite never quite getting over the hump in the real NBA playoffs, this idea is for you...

The premise: create a Hall of Fame for the best fantasy basketball players of all time. The requirements:

  1. Only stats compiled from 1990 to the present are considered, because fantasy hoops was not really a mainstream activity until the nineties.
  2. Players must have played at least 5 years as a fantasy starter in a 12-team league (or similar) from 1990-present.
  3. The player must be retired and/or out of basketball in 2010 (no current players allowed).
  4. Only consider fantasy value in standard league setups -- i.e., 12 teams, 8 categories, roto, head-to-head, or basic points. In other words, no super-shallow or deep leagues, and no exotic scoring systems.
  5. Players are ineligible if they have more than a remote chance of making the real Basketball Hall of Fame.

To be enshrined, players must receive at least 75% of the vote; those with 5% or fewer will be dropped from future elections. Here's the inaugural ballot (voting will close in 1 week):

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Posted in Fantasy Basketball, History, Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Polls | 31 Comments »

Which Single-Game Playoff Outcomes Were the Most Surprising?

4th May 2010

Watching Boston destroy Cleveland in the second half of last night's game, on Cleveland's home court, made me think about surprising playoff outcomes. Going into a game between Boston and Cleveland at Quicken Loans Arena, you would expect the Cavs to win by at least ~3.3 points even if you knew nothing about the two teams, since that's the average margin by which the home team wins any given game. And if you did know about the relative quality of the two teams -- Boston won 61% of its regular-season games, Cleveland won 74% -- you would expect Cleveland to win by even more. An example: using SRS, you might expect the Cavs to win by roughly 6 points (6.2 - 3.4 + 3.3 = 6.1). And, not coincidentally, the betting line on last night's game was Cleveland -6. But instead, Boston won by 18, a difference of 24 vs. what we would have expected going into the game.

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Posted in Analysis, History, Playoffs, Statgeekery, Statistical +/- | 6 Comments »

2010 Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview: Orlando vs. Atlanta

3rd May 2010

2010 Playoffs Home2010 Playoff Previews

2. Orlando Magic

Coach: Stan Van Gundy
SRS: 7.12 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.0 (18th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 111.4 (4th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.3 (3rd of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-0) versus Charlotte Bobcats

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Orlando Magic 0.536 2 0.136 17 0.246 25 0.246 7
Orlando Magic - Opp 0.477 1 0.122 26 0.226 1 0.205 3

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Posted in Analysis, Playoffs | 5 Comments »

Layups: Wizards Owner Ted Leonsis is a Fan of Statistical Analysis

3rd May 2010

At his blog, new Wizards majority owner Ted Leonsis voiced his approval of Wayne Winston's Mathletics (in addition to David Berri's Stumbling on Wins). The point is this: if Ted likes those books, I bet he'd also like the Basketball-Reference.com blog, where we dive into NBA statistical analysis every day. Also, it's nice to see an owner openly embrace the use of metrics in sports decision-making, since that mindset often filters from the top down throughout an organization.

Posted in Layups | 2 Comments »

2010 Western Conference Semifinals Preview: Phoenix vs. San Antonio

1st May 2010

2010 Playoffs Home2010 Playoff Previews

3. Phoenix Suns

Coach: Alvin Gentry
SRS: 4.68 (6th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 95.3 (4th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 115.3 (1st of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.2 (23rd of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Portland Trail Blazers

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Phoenix Suns 0.546 1 0.136 17 0.276 7 0.240 10
Phoenix Suns - Opp 0.491 11 0.116 30 0.292 29 0.224 16

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Posted in Analysis, Playoffs | 1 Comment »

2010 Western Conference Semifinals Preview: L.A. Lakers vs. Utah

1st May 2010

2010 Playoffs Home2010 Playoff Previews

1. Los Angeles Lakers

Coach: Phil Jackson
SRS: 4.78 (5th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.8 (14th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 108.8 (11th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.7 (4th of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus OKC Thunder

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Los Angeles Lakers 0.496 15 0.124 5 0.276 7 0.221 18
Los Angeles Lakers - Opp 0.484 6 0.132 18 0.256 9 0.195 2

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Posted in Analysis, Playoffs | 6 Comments »

YouTube Finds: “B-Ball’s Best Kept Secret”

1st May 2010

16 years later, music historians generally look back at 1994 as a time of major changes to the cultural landscape -- the death of Kurt Cobain, the arrest of Tupac Shakur, Green Day breaking through into the mainstream, etc. They also consider it the end of the so-called "Golden Age of Hip-Hop", the genre's most innovative and artistically-fulfilling era. Perhaps not coincidentally, 1994 also marked the release of B-Ball's Best Kept Secret, a "compilation album released by Epic Records that featured NBA players performing songs with hip hop artists". With the likes of Brian Shaw, Dana Barros, and Jason Kidd on the mic, is this the album that led to the Golden Age's end? Or was it merely the final ray of brilliance in the Era? You be the judge:

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Posted in Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Layups, YouTube Finds | 8 Comments »