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Archive for October, 2010

The Hawks, Post-Sweep

28th October 2010

I was watching a little of the Hawks-Grizzlies game last night before the World Series, and it sunk in just how much we've all written off the Hawks after last season's embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Magic. The prevailing logic is that Atlanta will still win their 45-50 games this year, finish with a decent seed in the East, and maybe even win another 1st-round series, but the sweep meant that they cannot truly contend with the conference's big guns.

Is one playoff sweep really that telling, though?

Here's the historical progression of all teams who were swept 4-0 from 1959-2007 (mouse over column headers for descriptions):

Sweep Year Sweep Year + 1 Sweep Year + 2 Sweep Year + 3
Sweep Mgn RS W% RS SRS RS W% RS SRS Playoffs Conf Champs RS W% RS SRS Playoffs Conf Champs RS W% RS SRS Playoffs Conf Champs
-10.74 0.603 2.93 0.566 1.92 86% 12% 0.536 1.05 72% 20% 0.523 0.53 68% 10%

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Posted in Analysis, History | 14 Comments »

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Washington Wizards

27th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Washington Wizards

Coach: Flip Saunders

2010 Summary:
Record: 26-56, Finished 5th in NBA Southeast Division
SRS: -4.72 (26th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.6 (21st of 30)
Off Rtg: 104.2 (25th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 109.4 (18th of 30)
Expected W-L: 28-54 (26th of 30)

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Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | 1 Comment »

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Orlando Magic

27th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Orlando Magic

Coach: Stan Van Gundy

2010 Summary:
Record: 59-23, Finished 1st in NBA Southeast Division
SRS: 7.12 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.0 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.4 (4th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.3 (3rd of 30)
Expected W-L: 61-21 (1st of 30)

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Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | Comments Off

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Denver Nuggets

27th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Denver Nuggets

Coach: George Karl

2010 Summary:
Record: 53-29, Finished 1st in NBA Northwest Division
SRS: 4.15 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 94.8 (5th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.8 (3rd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.5 (16th of 30)
Expected W-L: 52-30 (8th of 30)

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Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | Comments Off

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Golden State Warriors

27th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Golden State Warriors

Coach: Keith Smart

2010 Summary:
Record: 26-56, Finished 4th in NBA Pacific Division
SRS: -3.27 (22nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 100.4 (1st of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.1 (14th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 111.7 (29th of 30)
Expected W-L: 32-50 (22nd of 30)

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Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | 1 Comment »

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Cleveland Cavaliers

26th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Cleveland Cavaliers

Coach: Byron Scott

2010 Summary:
Record: 61-21, Finished 1st in NBA Central Division
SRS: 6.17 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.4 (25th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.2 (6th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 104.1 (7th of 30)
Expected W-L: 59-23 (2nd of 30)

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Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | 1 Comment »

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Memphis Grizzlies

26th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Memphis Grizzlies

Coach: Lionel Hollins

2010 Summary:
Record: 40-42, Finished 4th in NBA Southwest Division
SRS: -1.38 (17th of 30) ▪ Pace: 93.6 (10th of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.3 (13th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 109.9 (19th of 30)
Expected W-L: 37-45 (17th of 30)

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Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | Comments Off

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Boston Celtics

26th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Boston Celtics

Coach: Doc Rivers

2010 Summary:
Record: 50-32, Finished 1st in NBA Atlantic Division
SRS: 3.37 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.6 (22nd of 30)
Off Rtg: 107.7 (15th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.8 (5th of 30)
Expected W-L: 52-30 (9th of 30)

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Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | 11 Comments »

2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews: Sacramento Kings

26th October 2010

Welcome to our 2010-11 NBA Blogosphere Previews, in which we contact the finest team bloggers on the web and ask them to contribute their thoughts on the squad they cover. What follows is their take, along with the team's depth chart (courtesy of ESPN.com), projected 2011 stats via our Simple Projection System, and polls where you get to have your say. Enjoy!

Sacramento Kings

Coach: Paul Westphal

2010 Summary:
Record: 25-57, Finished 5th in NBA Pacific Division
SRS: -4.06 (25th of 30) ▪ Pace: 94.0 (7th of 30)
Off Rtg: 105.3 (22nd of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 109.9 (20th of 30)
Expected W-L: 29-53 (25th of 30)

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Posted in Analysis, From the NBA Blogosphere, Polls, Projections, Season Preview | Comments Off

2010-11 Projected NBA Standings

25th October 2010

It's that time of year again... Time to plug a ton of projected numbers into a computer, simulate the NBA schedule thousands of times, and see what kind of predictions it spits out. This year I ran three sets of 2,500 simulated seasons -- one based on statistical plus/minus (the raw version of which I posted here, but also adjusted for team using past franchise & coaching histories), one based on Win Shares (using the Simple Projection System method), and one based on a heavily regressed-to-the-mean version of last year's Simple Ratings (not so much for prediction purposes, but as an experiment to see how well the "dumbest" possible projections fare vs. complex methods). To see the individual minutes and ratings that went into these projections, click here.

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Posted in Analysis, BBR Rankings, Projections, Season Preview, SRS, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 33 Comments »