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Archive for February, 2011

NY Times: The Story Arc of the 3-Point Shot

11th February 2011

From way downtown...BANG!

Keeping Score: The Story Arc of the 3-Point Shot

Read all about it in Friday's print edition too.

Posted in NY Times | 5 Comments »

Layups: Ken Pomeroy on Single-Game Plus-Minus

10th February 2011

Ken Pomeroy (of the outstanding college hoops stat site Kenpom.com) ran an interesting simulation last month with regard to the randomness inherent in single-game plus-minus scores:

A treatise on plus/minus - the kenpom.com blog

According to Ken's simulation, a player with precisely average "true +/- skill" can show up with wildly variant observed +/- values over the course of a game, or even 20 games.

Just for fun, I re-ran this experiment for ten thousand games, tracking the observed +/- impact of the player through various checkpoints. Here were the results:

#Sims On Off MOV per40
1 5.00 -17.00 -12.00 44.00
10 0.70 -2.60 -1.90 6.60
100 0.49 -0.85 -0.36 2.68
500 -0.39 -1.02 -1.41 1.26
1000 -0.16 -0.46 -0.61 0.60
5000 -0.06 0.10 0.04 -0.31
10000 -0.13 0.12 -0.01 -0.51

Even after 10,000 games, a massive sample that would never be possible to achieve in real life, our perfectly average "player" appears to be a half-point per 40 min worse than average by raw on/off-court plus minus. As Ken says, "respect randomness"!

Posted in Analysis, Layups, Statgeekery | 3 Comments »

2011 APBRmetric All-Stars

9th February 2011

Just as we did last season, let's take a look at which players would have made the All-Star teams if various advanced stats were the only criteria in the voting. To pick teams, I used the official positional designations from the 2011 ballot; each team must have 4 guards, 4 forwards, and 2 centers, with room for 2 wild cards from any position to fill out the roster. Players in bold are starters; "*" designates the player as a member of the real-life All-Star team.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in All-Star Game, Analysis, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 142 Comments »

NBA Elo Player Rater

8th February 2011

Today I would like to introduce a new feature that I think will be a lot of fun: the NBA Elo Player Rater.

The Elo rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in two-player games. The creator of the system, Arpad Elo, was a professor of physics at Marquette University who wanted an improved chess rating system. Although the system has its roots in chess, today it is used in many other games.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Announcements | 228 Comments »

Replacing an Institution

7th February 2011

In last night's Super Bowl, the Packers defeated the Steelers on the strength of an MVP effort from quarterback Aaron Rodgers. What made Rodgers' accomplishment more impressive was the fact that, less than three years ago, he was tasked with replacing Brett Favre, an institution at QB for Green Bay. Favre had been the Pack's starter for 16 consecutive years before the team moved on to Rodgers, but it's hard to argue that the decision was anything other than a success in light of their championship last night. Here are some similar situations in the NBA (when a team replaced a longtime fixture at a given position), many of which didn't work out as well as the Favre/Rodgers transition did:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in History, Trivia | 10 Comments »

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (February 4, 2011)

4th February 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on February 3, 2011:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 14 Comments »

Reminder: Super Bowl Squares App Now Available!

4th February 2011

Another friendly reminder that our Super Bowl Squares mobile app is available for $0.99 at the iTunes store and the Android Marketplace.

If you're playing Super Bowl squares this weekend, this app will tell you which squares have the best chance of winning (based on game data from 1994-2010). For more information about features, as well as links to posts about Super Bowl squares theory, click here.

Posted in Announcements, Just For Fun, Non-Basketball | Comments Off

NY Times: Kevin Love’s Rare Combination of Talents

3rd February 2011

Some love for Love:

Keeping Score: Kevin Love’s Rare Combination of Talents

This will also appear in tomorrow's print edition.

Posted in NY Times | 15 Comments »

Team W-L Record in Games as a Leading Scorer

3rd February 2011

This post is a major data dump, and really more for trivia purposes than anything else. But I put together a list of every player who led an NBA team in scoring in a regular-season game from 1987-2011, along with their PPG in those team-leading games, and the team's W-L record in those games (for the full list of players, click here). Here were the 50 players with the most games as a leading scorer:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Data Dump, History, Statgeekery, Totally Useless, Trivia | 8 Comments »

NBA Players and Rookies of the Month

2nd February 2011

This is just a short announcement to let you know that pages for NBA Players of the Month and Rookies of the Month have been added to the Awards and Honors section of the site. These awards have also been added to the leaderboards table on each player's page.

Posted in Announcements | 7 Comments »