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Archive for March, 2011

Follow Us At the Sloan Convention via Twitter!

4th March 2011

You can follow my tweets from the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at the BBR Twitter feed:

Basketball Reference (bball_ref) on Twitter

Also, you can follow everyone's tweets by searching for the #ssac tag.

Posted in Announcements, Statgeekery | Comments Off

BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (March 4, 2011)

4th March 2011

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on March 3, 2011:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 42 Comments »

Top-10 Overall Despite Being Below-Average in Three of the Four Factors

3rd March 2011

While I'm en route to Boston for the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, here's a neat question SI's Zach Lowe had regarding the Memphis Grizzlies' defense:

"Memphis has emerged as a top-10 defensive team despite being good at only one of the four factors--forcing turnovers, which they do extremely well. They rank below the league average in eFG (barely below the avg), DRB rate (horrible) and FT/FGA (somewhere in between). I have a feeling it's unusual for a team to rank in the top-10 overall while ranking below the league average in 3 of the 4 defensive factors, but perhaps it's not as unusual as I think it might be."

It is very unusual, in fact. Since 1974, the first year we can compute the Factors, just eleven defenses (including Memphis) have ranked in the top 10 despite being below-average in 3 of 4 Factors. And if we expand it to include either offense or defense, the list contains only 27 teams:

Year Team Type Rtg Rk efg% <avg tov% <avg rb% <avg ftr <avg
1974 Philadelphia 76ers Defense 99.0 10 46.8 17.6 66.7 21.0
1975 Portland Trail Blazers Defense 97.7 6 45.0 16.0 69.6 22.8
1976 Phoenix Suns Defense 97.9 7 46.8 17.3 69.1 22.9
1976 Chicago Bulls Defense 98.0 9 46.7 15.8 74.6 23.2
1978 Atlanta Hawks Defense 99.8 6 47.4 19.9 67.0 32.9
1984 Milwaukee Bucks Defense 103.6 2 45.9 14.7 65.6 26.6
1986 Denver Nuggets Defense 105.9 9 49.5 16.9 64.1 26.6
1989 New York Knickerbockers Defense 107.5 10 50.4 16.7 65.1 24.9
2004 Toronto Raptors Defense 100.4 7 44.9 14.1 70.1 24.1
2009 Utah Jazz Defense 107.3 10 50.5 15.0 72.7 26.2
2011 Memphis Grizzlies Defense 104.8 8 49.8 15.7 71.9 23.3
1976 Cleveland Cavaliers Offense 99.5 3 45.4 13.5 29.9 17.5
1977 Kansas City Kings Offense 100.5 8 46.0 15.4 30.9 22.1
1977 Detroit Pistons Offense 100.3 9 48.3 16.6 30.7 18.5
1977 New York Knickerbockers Offense 100.1 10 48.6 16.6 26.4 21.1
1978 New York Knickerbockers Offense 101.7 9 48.8 16.7 31.0 21.4
1980 Los Angeles Lakers Offense 109.5 1 53.0 16.5 32.6 22.0
1980 Cleveland Cavaliers Offense 106.7 6 47.6 13.2 33.1 21.2
1984 Phoenix Suns Offense 108.9 10 51.4 15.1 31.4 23.2
1987 Denver Nuggets Offense 109.3 8 47.8 11.8 32.2 24.8
1988 Denver Nuggets Offense 110.1 8 48.6 11.7 29.7 23.1
1992 Milwaukee Bucks Offense 108.8 10 48.6 14.2 35.9 22.1
1993 Houston Rockets Offense 109.6 6 51.5 14.5 30.0 23.5
1995 Houston Rockets Offense 109.7 7 52.9 15.0 26.9 23.2
1997 Houston Rockets Offense 108.8 7 52.0 15.6 28.4 23.2
1999 Houston Rockets Offense 105.4 5 50.6 15.8 27.8 22.8
2008 Phoenix Suns Offense 113.3 2 55.1 13.4 22.4 22.8

I'll let Zach provide the commentary, so go check out his post at SI's Point Forward blog.

Posted in Data Dump, Statgeekery | 4 Comments »

Jobs @ Sports Reference: Web Developer

2nd March 2011

Jobs @ Sports Reference: Web Developer

Sports Reference is hiring a web developer this spring. Please see the link above for the job description and information on how to apply.

Posted in Announcements | Comments Off

Searching For the NBA’s Version of the Charlie Sheen Fiasco

2nd March 2011

In the wake of the ongoing Charlie Sheen chaos, I was (of course) racking my brain to find a comparable NBA analogy. Ideally you'd want to find a situation with the following parallels:

  • It involves a winning team. Although I have personally never seen an episode, Sheen's show Two and a Half Men is apparently wildly successful, as Sheen is quick to point out to anyone who will listen. So any NBA equivalent would have to involve a good team, probably one that had been a contender for multiple years.
  • It involves that team's best player. Monetarily speaking, Sheen is the #1 scorer on Two and a Half Men, and in fact the league's top player -- he made $1.8 million/episode in 2010, making him the highest-paid actor on television. The basketball equivalent would have to deal with a similar star in his prime.
  • The team releases that player mid-season. Production on Two and a Half Men's 8th season was halted midway due to Sheen's behavioral problems, so an NBA version would have to involve a team waiving their best player in the middle of the season.

Unfortunately, there isn't a single situation in NBA history that meets all of those requirements. In fact, as far as I can tell, there are only a few remotely comparable situations:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, History, Insane ideas, Just For Fun, No Math Required, Rants & Ramblings | 21 Comments »

Layups: Conference Tournament Win Probabilities

1st March 2011

If you're a long-time reader of this blog, you know that Ken Pomeroy's Kenpom.com is one of my favorite college basketball websites (just a notch below CBB @ Sports-Reference, of course). So it's great to see that Ken will once again be using his ratings to generate win probabilities for each conference tournament (and the NCAA tourney) over the next few weeks. You can find all of those posts at the Basketball Prospectus Unfiltered Blog, but to start you off, here are the odds for some of the early tournaments:

Let log5 season begin (Big South and Horizon)

Log5: A-Sun, OVC, and Patriot

Posted in Layups, NCAA, Statgeekery | Comments Off