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Archive for April, 2011

Layups: 10 Best Opening-Round Series in NBA Playoff History

21st April 2011

College Crunch has its picks for the 10 Best Opening-Round Series in NBA Playoff History.

Posted in Layups, Playoffs | 12 Comments »

Playoff RAPM Power Rankings

21st April 2011

What happens if you create power rankings using Jeremias Engelmann's 4-year Regularized Plus-Minus ratings (the most predictive version of APM) and each playoff team's distribution of minutes through two games?

Take a look:

Team MP Offense Defense Overall
MIA 479 11.0 6.2 17.0
LAL 482 6.9 6.9 13.9
BOS 479 4.1 9.0 13.2
POR 479 6.3 6.6 13.1
ORL 482 7.7 5.3 12.9
DAL 480 6.7 5.9 12.6
SAS 480 6.3 5.9 11.9
DEN 480 5.8 4.9 10.6
CHI 478 3.8 6.5 10.3
OKC 481 4.0 5.4 9.3
MEM 480 3.0 5.4 8.2
NYK 482 7.3 -1.0 6.4
PHI 479 2.1 3.5 5.5
NOH 480 2.7 2.7 5.4
ATL 481 2.1 3.3 5.3
IND 479 1.7 2.9 4.7

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, Insane ideas, Statgeekery | 19 Comments »

Danny Crawford and the Mavs

19th April 2011

ESPN had an interesting news story today about Danny Crawford's history with the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs:

NBA playoffs 2011: Referee Danny Crawford assigned to Game 2 of Dallas Mavericks-Portland Trail Blazers series - ESPN Dallas

The gist is this:

"The Mavs have a 2-16 record in playoff games officiated by Crawford, including 16 losses in the last 17 games. Dallas is 48-41 in the rest of their playoff games during the ownership tenure of Mark Cuban, who has been fined millions of dollars in the last 11 years for publicly complaining about officiating."

At the risk of running afoul of the Wyatt Earp Effect again, what is the probability that this has happened due to chance alone?

In his book Mathletics, Wayne Winston finds that the final margin of victory  in an NBA game can be approximated by a normal random variable with a mean of the point spread and a standard deviation of 12. Using that knowledge and the handy chart ESPN provided at the bottom of their story on Crawford, we can calculate the probability of Dallas winning each of their Crawford-officiated games since 2001:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Analysis, Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Playoffs, Rants & Ramblings, Statgeekery | 36 Comments »

Layups: NBA.com Statscube

19th April 2011

In case you haven't already seen it, NBA.com just launched a sweet stat tool called StatsCube:

StatsCube - Advanced basketball statistics for NBA players and teams on NBA.com

John Schuhmann had been using it in his columns for a while, but now the public can sift through the data for themselves.

Posted in Layups, Statgeekery | 3 Comments »

Layups: Charlie Rose’s NBA Interviews

18th April 2011

On April 29, 2011, Google Video is shutting down. While hockey fans will lament the loss of these full-length games (some of which are also available on Hulu), this doesn't mean a lot to the NBA fan -- after all, games like this can also be found on YouTube, and who really wants to see grainy footage of a 2005 Celtics-Sixers game?

However, Google Videos also housed a number of old Charlie Rose interviews with basketball players and writers (Rose, from North Carolina, is a big fan of the game). Here are some that you should watch while you still can:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Layups, YouTube Finds | 1 Comment »

Best Road Performances in Opening-Round Game 1s?

18th April 2011

It was a banner weekend for underdogs, as the away teams kicked off the 2011 Playoffs with 3 wins, including victories by the Western Conference #8 and #7 seeds. How do the road teams' performances in this set of opening-round game 1s compare to other years since the playoffs expanded in 1984?

Let's take a look (all numbers from the perspective of the average road team in Game 1 of the 1st round):

Year roadW roadL WPct Margin expected Mgn Diff
2011 3 5 0.375 -0.63 -7.37 6.75
2010 1 7 0.125 -7.88 -4.88 -2.99
2009 4 4 0.500 -5.88 -7.46 1.58
2008 2 6 0.250 -7.13 -6.25 -0.88
2007 3 5 0.375 -2.75 -7.71 4.96
2006 1 7 0.125 -10.38 -6.14 -4.24
2005 2 6 0.250 -8.25 -6.23 -2.02
2004 0 8 0.000 -14.75 -7.02 -7.73
2003 4 4 0.500 -1.13 -6.95 5.82
2002 1 7 0.125 -8.25 -5.92 -2.33
2001 3 5 0.375 -1.25 -5.03 3.78
2000 2 6 0.250 -3.63 -6.29 2.67
1999 2 6 0.250 -7.75 -6.41 -1.34
1998 2 6 0.250 -8.13 -6.67 -1.45
1997 1 7 0.125 -15.13 -7.42 -7.70
1996 3 5 0.375 -5.00 -7.94 2.94
1995 1 7 0.125 -17.63 -6.90 -10.73
1994 2 6 0.250 -8.88 -6.41 -2.46
1993 2 6 0.250 -10.75 -8.19 -2.56
1992 1 7 0.125 -12.50 -9.63 -2.87
1991 3 5 0.375 -1.75 -9.25 7.50
1990 0 8 0.000 -11.75 -8.46 -3.29
1989 2 6 0.250 -4.75 -9.61 4.86
1988 0 8 0.000 -10.00 -9.86 -0.14
1987 1 7 0.125 -12.00 -10.24 -1.76
1986 1 7 0.125 -16.25 -9.91 -6.34
1985 1 7 0.125 -11.38 -7.78 -3.60
1984 3 5 0.375 -2.00 -7.87 5.87

(Click column headers to sort by each category.)

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Posted in Analysis, History, Playoffs, SRS, Statgeekery, Trivia | 3 Comments »

Layups: Entire Slam Dunk Contest History On One Poster

15th April 2011

Typical Hoopism awesomeness (with guest artist Robb Harskamp).

Posted in All-Star Game, Layups | 1 Comment »

Layups: 2011 Internet Basketball Awards

15th April 2011

Vote in the second annual Internet Basketball Awards at BBall Prospectus: Link

Posted in Announcements, Awards, Layups | Comments Off

Playoff Preview: #4 Oklahoma City vs. #5 Denver

15th April 2011

Oklahoma City Thunder

55-27, 1st in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Scott Brooks (55-27)

PTS/G: 104.8 (5th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 101.0 (18th of 30)
SRS: 3.81 (9th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.7 (13th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.2 (5th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.2 (15th of 30)
Expected W-L: 51-31 (9th of 30)

Arena: Ford Center ▪ Attendance: 726,071 (14th of 30)

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Playoffs, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 6 Comments »

Playoff Preview: #3 Dallas vs. #6 Portland

15th April 2011

Dallas Mavericks

57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)

PTS/G: 100.2 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 96.0 (10th of 30)
SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)

Arena: American Airlines Center ▪ Attendance: 803,968 (6th of 30)

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Playoffs, Statgeekery, Statistical +/-, Win Shares | 1 Comment »