3rd June 2011
Dallas' Series Win Probability Graph after Game 2:
Dallas' Quarter-by-Quarter Series Win Probability Data:
| Minutes Elapsed |
p(win) |
| 0 |
47% |
| 12 |
48% |
| 24 |
49% |
| 36 |
42% |
| 48 |
34% |
| 60 |
34% |
| 72 |
35% |
| 84 |
29% |
| 96 |
54% |
(For more info on the Series Win Probability methodology, click here)
Honestly, just looking at the quarter-by-quarter stats vastly understates the magnitude of Dallas' comeback.
They were down 88-73 with 6 minutes and 19 seconds left in the game. Using the win probability methodology Wayne Winston laid out in Mathletics, a team winning by 15 at home with 6.32 minutes left in the game should win 99.978% of the time, putting the chances of a Dallas comeback at 1 in 4,550. As a second opinion, Ed Kupfer's win probability metric says a team winning by 15 at home with 6:19 to play should win 99.592% of the time, making the Mavs' comeback a 1 in 245 proposition.
Either way, Miami was less than a half of a percentage point away from taking a 2-0 lead to Dallas and giving themselves a 79% probability of winning a championship. Instead, they now sit at 46%. It's not quite on the level of Dallas blowing a 90% chance in 2006... but it's shockingly close.
Posted in Playoffs, Statgeekery | 33 Comments »
2nd June 2011
Keeping Score: They Won a Lot of Games, and Soon a Title
At the NY Times, I highlight the unprecedented group of superstars currently seeking their first ring.
Posted in History, Layups, NY Times, Win Shares | 4 Comments »
2nd June 2011
BBR reader Jamey wrote in with this question:
"I'm watching the NBA Finals, and one of the hosts of the pre-game show said that there are 7 players who have won the MVP award that have not won an NBA championship ring. Can you tell me who they are?"
Sure can. In fact, in order to answer this question, I had to create a query that counted rings for all MVPs. Here is that list (I only counted a player as having won a ring if he played in the postseason with an NBA or BAA championship team):
| Player |
Rings |
MVPs |
| Bill Russell |
11 |
1958, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1965 |
| Bob Cousy |
6 |
1957 |
| Michael Jordan |
6 |
1988, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1998 |
| Kareem Abdul-Jabbar |
6 |
1971, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1980 |
| Kobe Bryant |
5 |
2008 |
| Magic Johnson |
5 |
1987, 1989, 1990 |
| Shaquille O'Neal |
4 |
2000 |
| Tim Duncan |
4 |
2002, 2003 |
| Larry Bird |
3 |
1984, 1985, 1986 |
| Willis Reed |
2 |
1970 |
| Dave Cowens |
2 |
1973 |
| Bob McAdoo |
2 |
1975 |
| Bill Walton |
2 |
1978 |
| Hakeem Olajuwon |
2 |
1994 |
| David Robinson |
2 |
1995 |
| Wilt Chamberlain |
2 |
1960, 1966, 1967, 1968 |
| Oscar Robertson |
1 |
1964 |
| Wes Unseld |
1 |
1969 |
| Julius Erving |
1 |
1981 |
| Kevin Garnett |
1 |
2004 |
| Bob Pettit |
1 |
1956, 1959 |
| Moses Malone |
1 |
1979, 1982, 1983 |
| Charles Barkley |
0 |
1993 |
| Allen Iverson |
0 |
2001 |
| Dirk Nowitzki |
0 |
2007 |
| Derrick Rose |
0 |
2011 |
| Karl Malone |
0 |
1997, 1999 |
| Steve Nash |
0 |
2005, 2006 |
| LeBron James |
0 |
2010, 2009 |
The 7 MVPs who never won a ring are, of course, Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James, & Derrick Rose. And no matter what happens in the 2011 Finals, either Dirk or LeBron will be able to remove himself from that list.
Posted in Awards, BBR Mailbag, History, Trivia | 9 Comments »
1st June 2011
Miami's Series Win Probability Graph after Game 1:
Miami's Quarter-by-Quarter Series Win Probability Data:
| Minutes Elapsed |
p(win) |
| 0 |
53.3% |
| 12 |
52.0% |
| 24 |
51.2% |
| 36 |
57.7% |
| 48 |
66.0% |
For more info on the Series Win Probability methodology, click here.
Posted in Playoffs, Statgeekery | 22 Comments »
