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Archive for June, 2011

2011 NBA Finals Series Win Probability After Game 2

3rd June 2011

Dallas' Series Win Probability Graph after Game 2:

Dallas' Quarter-by-Quarter Series Win Probability Data:

Minutes Elapsed p(win)
0 47%
12 48%
24 49%
36 42%
48 34%
60 34%
72 35%
84 29%
96 54%

(For more info on the Series Win Probability methodology, click here)

Honestly, just looking at the quarter-by-quarter stats vastly understates the magnitude of Dallas' comeback.

They were down 88-73 with 6 minutes and 19 seconds left in the game. Using the win probability methodology Wayne Winston laid out in Mathletics, a team winning by 15 at home with 6.32 minutes left in the game should win 99.978% of the time, putting the chances of a Dallas comeback at 1 in 4,550. As a second opinion, Ed Kupfer's win probability metric says a team winning by 15 at home with 6:19 to play should win 99.592% of the time, making the Mavs' comeback a 1 in 245 proposition.

Either way, Miami was less than a half of a percentage point away from taking a 2-0 lead to Dallas and giving themselves a 79% probability of winning a championship. Instead, they now sit at 46%. It's not quite on the level of Dallas blowing a 90% chance in 2006... but it's shockingly close.

Posted in Playoffs, Statgeekery | 33 Comments »

Keeping Score: They Won a Lot of Games, and Soon a Title – NYTimes.com

2nd June 2011

Keeping Score: They Won a Lot of Games, and Soon a Title

At the NY Times, I highlight the unprecedented group of superstars currently seeking their first ring.

Posted in History, Layups, NY Times, Win Shares | 4 Comments »

Mailbag: NBA MVPs and Their Rings

2nd June 2011

BBR reader Jamey wrote in with this question:

"I'm watching the NBA Finals, and one of the hosts of the pre-game show said that there are 7 players who have won the MVP award that have not won an NBA championship ring. Can you tell me who they are?"

Sure can. In fact, in order to answer this question, I had to create a query that counted rings for all MVPs. Here is that list (I only counted a player as having won a ring if he played in the postseason with an NBA or BAA championship team):

Player Rings MVPs
Bill Russell 11 1958, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1965
Bob Cousy 6 1957
Michael Jordan 6 1988, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1998
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 6 1971, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1980
Kobe Bryant 5 2008
Magic Johnson 5 1987, 1989, 1990
Shaquille O'Neal 4 2000
Tim Duncan 4 2002, 2003
Larry Bird 3 1984, 1985, 1986
Willis Reed 2 1970
Dave Cowens 2 1973
Bob McAdoo 2 1975
Bill Walton 2 1978
Hakeem Olajuwon 2 1994
David Robinson 2 1995
Wilt Chamberlain 2 1960, 1966, 1967, 1968
Oscar Robertson 1 1964
Wes Unseld 1 1969
Julius Erving 1 1981
Kevin Garnett 1 2004
Bob Pettit 1 1956, 1959
Moses Malone 1 1979, 1982, 1983
Charles Barkley 0 1993
Allen Iverson 0 2001
Dirk Nowitzki 0 2007
Derrick Rose 0 2011
Karl Malone 0 1997, 1999
Steve Nash 0 2005, 2006
LeBron James 0 2010, 2009

The 7 MVPs who never won a ring are, of course, Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James, & Derrick Rose. And no matter what happens in the 2011 Finals, either Dirk or LeBron will be able to remove himself from that list.

Posted in Awards, BBR Mailbag, History, Trivia | 9 Comments »

2011 NBA Finals Series Win Probability After Game 1

1st June 2011

Miami's Series Win Probability Graph after Game 1:

Miami's Quarter-by-Quarter Series Win Probability Data:

Minutes Elapsed p(win)
0 53.3%
12 52.0%
24 51.2%
36 57.7%
48 66.0%

For more info on the Series Win Probability methodology, click here.

Posted in Playoffs, Statgeekery | 22 Comments »