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Archive for August, 2011

Trade Partners

26th August 2011

This is just a quick post to let you know that I have added a Trade Partners script to the Frivolities section of the site. Simply select two franchises from the search form and you can see:

  • all of the trades between the two franchises;
  • the statistics for each player on their "old" and "new" teams; and
  • a summary of the number of Win Shares coming and going in the deal.

I hope you enjoy this new feature, and as always please contact us should you have any comments or questions.

Posted in Announcements | 11 Comments »

Layups: Similarity in skills makes Miami’s duo unique

26th August 2011

Zach Lowe of SI's Point Forward blog (which you should subscribe to in your RSS reader if you haven't already) wrote today on a very interesting topic I've pondered before as well -- namely, the substantial overlap in skillsets between LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, and how it impacts Miami's efficiency.

Posted in Layups | 8 Comments »

Layups: Jordan Gallery; Highlights of All 82 Bulls Games in 1996

17th August 2011

Ryan from Mixmakers.net passed along some links that you might enjoy:

  • Rare. Air. - A great collection of black & white photos from Michael Jordan's career
  • '96 Bulls Highlights (Part I) - Want to watch highlights of every game from the Bulls' 1996 season? That's the place to start. I swear I'm going to watch them all back-to-back at some point.

Posted in History, Layups, YouTube Finds | 7 Comments »

Mailbag: Highest Percentage of Games Started by Rookies

16th August 2011

Nathan emailed us this question today:

"I stumbled across the 97-98 Cavaliers page for some reason and noticed that during that season they started Wesley Person, Shawn Kemp, Cedric Henderson, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Brevin Knight, with Derek Anderson starting 13 games. So that's 8th-year player Kemp, 3rd-year player Person, and 4 rookies in the top 6 in terms of starts! And they made the playoffs!

That has to be the highest percentage of games started by rookies right (discounting the first few seasons of the NBA)?"

Unfortunately our complete start data only goes back to 1983, so I can't speak to teams from early in the NBA's existence (except to say that, obviously, everyone would be a rookie in 1949-50). Since 1983, though, here are the teams that gave the most starts to 1st-year players:

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in BBR Mailbag, History, Trivia | 15 Comments »

Layups: Hoop Stream iPhone App

4th August 2011

BBR reader Darko Sancanin just released a new iPhone app called Hoop Stream:

Hoop Stream

It's pretty cool -- you can use it to follow the Twitter accounts of all active players on a given team, plus retired players as well.

Be sure to check Hoop Stream out in the App Store, and go to Darko's site to see the other apps he's developed.

Posted in Layups, No Math Required, Offseason | Comments Off

High School Recruiting Ranking vs. NBA Success

3rd August 2011

High school recruiting rankings, particularly the historical variety, have long fascinated me. There's something really interesting about looking back at them with the benefit of hindsight, and comparing a player's actual career trajectory to that which was predicted when he was just 18 years old.

With that idea in mind, I put together this post to see how often players of a certain ranking end up with a certain type of NBA career. For every player, I classified them in one of six categories:

  • Superstar - Either made 1st-team All-NBA or was Top-5 in MVP voting at least once in his career
  • All-Star - Made an All-Star roster at least once in his career
  • Starter - Finished top-5 on a team in games started at least once in his career
  • Regular - Not a starter, but played at least half of a team's games in a season at least once in his career
  • Scrub - Not a regular, but played at least 1 NBA game in his career
  • Did Not Play - Never played an NBA game

I then looked at the recruiting rankings on this site, gathering the data from 1998-2003 ('03 being the final HS class for which you can reasonably say every player has been given a full chance to reach his NBA potential -- if a guy hasn't made it by now, it's probably never going to happen). Based on their national prospect rankings coming out of high school, how many players ended up in each category in the NBA?

Rank Did Not Play Scrub Regular Starter All-Star Superstar
1-5 16% 10% 16% 35% 16% 6%
6-10 38% 10% 10% 31% 7% 3%
11-25 46% 16% 16% 19% 2% 0%
26-50 70% 9% 7% 12% 2% 0%
51-100 82% 5% 7% 5% 1% 0%
Rank Did Not Play Scrub Regular Starter All-Star Superstar
Top5 16% 10% 16% 35% 16% 6%
Top10 27% 10% 13% 33% 12% 5%
Top25 38% 14% 15% 25% 6% 2%
Top50 54% 12% 11% 18% 4% 1%
Top100 68% 9% 9% 12% 2% 1%

This is a sobering reminder of how elite the NBA's talent level really is.

Even if you're one of the 100 best high school players in all of America, there's almost a 70% chance you never play in the NBA, and almost an 80% chance that, at best, you'll be a journeyman scrub who doesn't play regularly. And while top-5 talents have a decent probability of being an NBA starter or better (58%), after that the drop-off is steep: 41% for players ranked 6-10, 21% for #11-25, 14% for #26-50, and only 6% for players ranked outside the top 50 (including just a 1% chance of being an All-Star).

Not to harsh the mellow of any budding BMOCs out there, but the typical top prospect's NBA career is, in the words of Thomas Hobbes, nasty, brutish, and short.

For the full list of recruits used in the study (and the categories they fell into), click here.

Posted in Analysis, NCAA, Prospects | 30 Comments »