Posted by Justin Kubatko on January 28, 2009
This morning I woke up to the following message in my inbox:
Can Reggie Miller's HOF chance really be .037? That seems inconsistent with traditional stats and modern stats.
That's a good question, and one I receive fairly often, so I thought I would address it in a blog post. Let me start by explaining that the Hall of Fame probabilities do not reflect my personal opinion. The method was developed to try to identify what factors the voters have deemed to be the most important over the years. Thus factors like points per game and championships won are included while factors like steals per game and field goal percentage are not. While you may not necessarily agree with that, the factors were chosen based on the past behavior of Hall of Fame voters.
That said, let's take a closer look at Reggie Miller. The reality is that he does not have the resume that the Hall of Fame voters have looked favorably upon in the past:
- For a shooting guard, Miller's career scoring average of 18.2 points per game is good, but not great.
- Miller's rebound (3.0/game) and assist (3.0/game) averages weren't particularly impressive.
- Miller was selected to play in only five All-Star Games, a low total for a Hall of Famer. There are 22 players who have been selected to play in exactly five NBA All-Star Games and are eligible for the Hall, and only nine of them have been elected.
- Miller received MVP votes in only two different seasons, finishing his career with a grand total of just 3 points in the MVP voting.
- Despite being on numerous good teams, Miller was never on a team that won an NBA championship.
Personally, I like Miller, and I think he probably should be elected to the Hall of Fame. (Note to self: run Miller though the Keltner List soon.) But, as I said, he's lacking the accomplishments that usually get a player elected to the Hall of Fame.
What do you think? Is Reggie Miller a Hall of Famer?