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Predicting Round 3 With SPM

Posted by Neil Paine on May 19, 2009

Using the technique I introduced a few weeks ago, here's what Statistical +/- sees in the cards for the Conference Finals:

East - 1. Cleveland vs. 3. Orlando

Player Ag Tm Ht Pos Skill Min
DelonteWest 25 CLE 76 G 0.51 321.0
LeBronJames 24 CLE 80 F 12.76 314.3
MoWilliams 26 CLE 73 G 0.79 287.6
AndersonVarejao 26 CLE 82 F 0.64 245.3
ZydrunasIlgauskas 33 CLE 87 C -0.34 230.0
JoeSmith 33 CLE 82 F -1.91 166.6
DanielGibson 22 CLE 74 G -1.25 101.9
WallySzczerbiak 31 CLE 79 F -1.53 92.6
BenWallace 34 CLE 81 F 1.15 88.3
SashaPavlovic 25 CLE 80 G -2.94 38.0
DarnellJackson 23 CLE 81 F -3.35 25.0
TarenceKinsey 24 CLE 78 G -2.97 9.4
Cavs 9.83 0.820
RashardLewis 29 ORL 82 F 3.38 521.5
HedoTurkoglu 29 ORL 82 F 2.44 481.7
DwightHoward 23 ORL 83 C 5.39 457.9
RaferAlston 32 ORL 74 G 1.38 393.2
MickaelPietrus 26 ORL 78 G -0.39 306.7
CourtneyLee 23 ORL 77 G -1.46 272.5
J.J.Redick 24 ORL 76 G -2.55 251.8
AnthonyJohnson 34 ORL 75 G -2.08 198.7
MarcinGortat 24 ORL 84 F -0.50 152.3
TonyBattie 32 ORL 83 C -3.47 73.5
AdonalFoyle 33 ORL 82 C -2.50 3.9
TyronnLue 31 ORL 72 G -3.29 3.9
JeremyRichardson 24 ORL 78 G -4.96 2.4
Magic 6.43 0.709
Cleveland in 4 16.8%
Orlando in 4 1.4%
Cleveland in 5 28.6%
Orlando in 5 2.9%
Cleveland in 6 18.8%
Orlando in 6 7.3%
Cleveland in 7 17.8%
Orlando in 7 6.3%
CLE wins series: 82.1%
ORL wins series: 17.9%

West - 1. Los Angeles vs. 2. Denver

Player Ag Tm Ht Pos Skill Min
CarmeloAnthony 24 DEN 80 F 2.17 379.4
ChaunceyBillups 32 DEN 75 G 4.29 375.0
NeneHilario 26 DEN 83 F 1.70 332.6
KenyonMartin 31 DEN 81 F -0.25 329.7
J.R.Smith 23 DEN 78 G 1.78 269.2
ChrisAndersen 30 DEN 82 F 1.36 190.7
DahntayJones 28 DEN 78 G -3.23 186.2
AnthonyCarter 33 DEN 73 G -1.18 166.0
LinasKleiza 24 DEN 80 F -2.16 116.1
JohanPetro 23 DEN 84 C -4.12 22.7
RenaldoBalkman 24 DEN 80 F 0.92 16.9
JasonHart 30 DEN 75 G -3.33 15.5
Nuggets 5.16 0.668
KobeBryant 30 LAL 78 G 6.44 468.9
PauGasol 28 LAL 84 F 2.99 466.8
LamarOdom 29 LAL 82 F 2.42 379.5
TrevorAriza 23 LAL 80 F 2.45 360.4
DerekFisher 34 LAL 73 G -0.34 289.5
ShannonBrown 23 LAL 76 G -3.50 191.0
AndrewBynum 21 LAL 84 C 0.69 186.3
SashaVujacic 24 LAL 79 G 1.01 172.3
LukeWalton 28 LAL 80 F -1.76 156.5
JordanFarmar 22 LAL 74 G -2.10 145.2
JoshPowell 26 LAL 81 F -5.68 55.4
D.J.Mbenga 28 LAL 84 C -1.61 8.4
Lakers 8.41 0.774
Los Angeles in 4 14.6%
Denver in 4 1.7%
Los Angeles in 5 26.7%
Denver in 5 3.6%
Los Angeles in 6 18.4%
Denver in 6 8.7%
Los Angeles in 7 18.8%
Denver in 7 7.4%
LAL wins series: 78.6%
DEN wins series: 21.4%

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3 Responses to “Predicting Round 3 With SPM”

  1. Anon Says:

    I really like these SPM predictions Neil. Although some conspiracy theorists out there would suggest that the chances of the Cavs and Lakers each getting to the Finals is actually 100%, thanks to the "evil" commissioner Mr. Stern. :)

    In your experience how do you think SPM compares to other box-score evaluation methods like ORtg/DRtg in making predictions?

  2. schtevie Says:

    Neil, any interest in seeing what the Lakers vs. Nuggets series would look using both teams' stats post-A.I./Billups trade? It seems relevant.

  3. Neil Paine Says:

    Anon: I won our little predict-off at APBRmetrics using it, but I haven't studied it extensively -- I've definitely maximized SPM's predictive power over the past few months, but we'll have to do an extensive retrodiction test this summer with various metrics (SPM, Win Shares, PER, Wins Produced, etc.).

    Schtevie: Going just by stats after the Billups trade is kinda what this exercise is trying to avoid -- the "true SPM skill" is a weighted average of the past 3 years, and it's supposed to represent impact independent of whether you're playing with Chauncey Billups or Allen Iverson (obviously you can't get completely away from context, but in theory that's what you want to do).