Posted by Neil Paine on May 19, 2009
Here's an interesting article... You've heard of the pythagenport floating exponent in baseball, right? Zach Fein of FeinSports.com has come up with something similar for the NBA. The standard 14 that we use is very good, but you can get slightly better results from this formula:
Exp = sqrt(Poss.) / log(Poss.) x 0.75 - 2.8
Where "Poss." is possessions, as defined by our glossary. The overall increase in accuracy is small, but I think it's still a very worthwhile pursuit to find better exponents for the pythagorean method.
Oh, and can we call this the "Pythagenfein" formula from now on?