You Are Here > Basketball-Reference.com > BBR Blog > NBA and College Basketball Analysis

SITE NEWS: We are moving all of our site and company news into a single blog for Sports-Reference.com. We'll tag all Basketball-Reference content, so you can quickly and easily find the content you want.

Also, our existing Basketball-Reference blog rss feed will be redirected to the new site's feed.

Basketball-Reference.com // Sports Reference

For more from Neil, check out his new work at BasketballProspectus.com.

Boxscore Breakdown: Finals, Game 2

Posted by Neil Paine on June 8, 2009

Another game, another crushing loss for the Magic. This one wasn't crushing because it was a blowout, mind you, but for the exact opposite reason: Orlando had the game in their grasp at various points in the 4th quarter (a buzzer-beating, game-winning alley-oop attempt by Courtney Lee literally missed by inches) and overtime, yet in the end they could not stave off the Lakers when it came down to making a key stop in the closing sequences. First, here's the advanced box score:

Name Tm Pos Min Poss PProd ORtg %Pos Floor% Stops Stop% DRtg
Hedo Turkoglu ORL SF 47.3 20.2 19.5 96.4 23.3 0.418 7.8 0.451 106.8
Rashard Lewis ORL PF 45.3 21.8 32.2 147.4 26.3 0.604 7.7 0.466 106.1
Dwight Howard ORL C 47.2 19.7 18.4 93.1 22.8 0.449 15.0 0.866 88.9
Courtney Lee ORL SG 11.8 2.3 1.6 71.3 10.6 0.357 1.8 0.421 108.1
Rafer Alston ORL PG 26.0 9.1 6.5 72.1 19.0 0.319 3.6 0.375 110.1
Mickael Pietrus ORL SG 23.2 3.3 1.6 49.9 7.8 0.250 4.1 0.488 105.2
Marcin Gortat ORL C 15.5 6.9 4.2 60.7 24.2 0.327 2.3 0.405 108.8
J.J. Redick ORL SG 27.1 8.4 5.4 64.1 16.8 0.262 3.7 0.376 110.0
Jameer Nelson ORL PG 16.7 5.1 4.1 80.5 16.6 0.432 2.2 0.361 110.7
Tony Battie ORL C 5.0 0.5 1.0 200.0 5.3 1.000 0.8 0.427 107.8
Orlando Magic 97.1 96 98.8 104.0
Name Tm Pos Min Poss PProd ORtg %Pos Floor% Stops Stop% DRtg
Trevor Ariza LAL SF 37.7 12.4 9.0 72.4 18.0 0.287 9.0 0.651 94.6
Pau Gasol LAL FC 43.9 17.0 22.9 134.5 21.1 0.633 10.4 0.647 94.8
Andrew Bynum LAL C 16.4 6.3 5.5 87.4 20.9 0.416 3.2 0.538 99.7
Kobe Bryant LAL SG 48.5 32.2 30.3 94.0 36.2 0.447 8.5 0.478 102.3
Derek Fisher LAL PG 41.1 11.2 11.6 103.8 14.9 0.425 7.8 0.516 100.6
Lamar Odom LAL PF 45.7 11.4 17.0 149.3 13.6 0.738 9.4 0.563 98.5
Luke Walton LAL SF 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.000 2.3 0.419 105.0
Jordan Farmar LAL PG 6.1 4.6 4.0 86.0 41.1 0.423 1.7 0.750 90.2
Sasha Vujacic LAL SG 4.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.000 0.8 0.479 102.3
Shannon Brown LAL SG 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.6 0.306 110.0
Los Angeles Lakers 97.1 101 104.0 98.8

Neither offense was clicking on all cylinders last night -- Kobe Bryant scored 29 inefficient points on 32 possessions, Trevor Ariza, Andrew Bynum, & Derek Fisher combined for a paltry .366 Floor%, and literally everyone except Rashard Lewis struggled on the Orlando side. Lewis came through huge, with 32 points produced and a 147.4 offensive rating, and Pau Gasol was his usual high-efficiency self, but the real unsung hero was Lamar Odom, who produced an efficient 17 points for L.A. on 11 possessions and made 9 defensive stops for a game-best +10 plus/minus. But all in all, the two squads combined for a 101.4 offensive rating, well below both the Lakers' (112.7) and Magic's (109.2) seasonal averages.

Luckily for the Lakers, though, they mustered the points when they needed to down the stretch. Bryant owned the free throw line in the 4th, while Odom carried the offense at times, and Gasol was there for a critical game-tying lay-in with 30 seconds left that eventually forced OT when Lee's buzzer-beater rimmed out. In the extra period, L.A.'s defense allowed only 8 points in 10 trips down the floor and they made all 9 of their shots from the charity stripe, rendering Rashard Lewis' 3-pointer with 26 seconds left (a shot reminiscent of the game-winner he drilled in Game 4 of the Cleveland series) largely irrelevant when Lamar Odom sank his freebies a few moments later.

Needless to say, going down 2-0 is devastating to the Magic's chances. If we use the point differential-based model we employed before the series began, Orlando now has just an 11.6% probability of winning the championship, with the most likely outcomes being as follows:

Outcome Prob
Lakers in 4 23.2%
Lakers in 5 24.1%
Lakers in 6 26.3%
Magic in 6 4.5%
Lakers in 7 14.9%
Magic in 7 7.1%

As I noted in an interview with the Magic blog Third Quarter Collapse before the series began, winning at least 1 game, and probably 2, at Staples Center was necessary if the Magic wanted to have a chance to beat L.A. Now they've whiffed on 2 opportunities to do that, including a Game 2 that was right there for the taking. And, realistically speaking, they now cannot afford to lose any of their 3 home games this week if they're going to have a shot. This team has faced and overcome long odds in the past, but right now it looks like they're going to have to channel the 2006 Heat or something to come away with the Larry O'Brien Trophy this season (and Dwyane Wade's not walking through that door).

ShareThis

6 Responses to “Boxscore Breakdown: Finals, Game 2”

  1. Jeremy Gibbs Says:

    Question: what is the probability an NBA team wins the series when leading 2 games to 0? Is this probability different in the finals?

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    Teams that go up 2-0 in the Finals with the first 2 games coming at home have won 24 out of 27 instances (89%); in all other rounds of the playoffs, their series winning percentage is 95%. This difference could be attributable to the 2-3-2 format (which supposedly gives the underdog more of an opportunity to overcome an 0-2 deficit), but since less than half of those Finals instances have occurred since the move to 2-3-2 (1986, 1987, 1989, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008), and the favorite's percentage is actually better under the current format, I think you can explain the discrepancy simply with the fact that the Finals are theoretically going to be the most evenly-matched series of the playoffs (certainly more so than your typical 1st-round series).

  3. Eddy Says:

    Looks like you're Lakers in 6 prediction is looking good, Neil.

    Hah.

  4. Sports Geek Says:

    I actually predict Lakers in 5. I don't think Orlando can match up with the depth the Lakers have in the front court, and how effectively the guards have disrupted Howard's shooting motion.

    Check out the debate over at The Sports Debates about how Orlando can win, or if the Lakers have it wrapped up:

    http://www.thesportsdebates.com

  5. basketbol nba Says:

    I predict about this series as Lakers won 4-2 ,but if Howard grows his performance up,it could be a 7 game series,beat la,go hedo

  6. Janella Rekemeyer Says:

    great post thanks ive bookmarked this for later use