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Layups: Kevin Martin = Adam Dunn

Posted by Neil Paine on September 8, 2009

Kevin Arnovitz has a nice post over at TrueHoop about Kevin Martin's "hidden" efficiency... Similar to low-batting-average/high-on-base-percentage baseball players like Carlos Pena or Dunn (at least before this year — in '09 Dunn's hitting a respectable .283), Martin's low shooting percentage obscures the awesome impact of his scoring. Like those low-average sluggers who mitigate their BA by walking a lot and hitting plenty of home runs, Martin makes up for his .420 FG% by knocking down 3-pointers at a high rate (.415 3P%), drawing a ton of fouls (his .650 FTA/FGA is downright monstrous for a guard), and making the most of his chances at the stripe (.867 FT%). In 2009 it all added up to a .601 TS% and an offensive rating of 114.9, much better numbers than you'd expect if you merely looked at his raw FG%.

6 Responses to “Layups: Kevin Martin = Adam Dunn”

  1. Mike G Says:

    "..60% TS for a #1 option is INSANE. LeBron's never cracked 60%. Neither has Kobe, ..."

    Reggie Miller did this in 13 seasons. His 18-year total is .614 . As high as .650 ; never below .580.

  2. Mike G Says:

    ORtg of 114.9? Reggie was 114 in his rookie year, over 118 thereafter.

  3. Neil Paine Says:

    Reggie never used 26% of the team's possessions when on the court, though. Most he ever had was 24.4 in 1996. That year, though, he did still have a crazy 120.6 ORtg. Then again, Jordan put up a 125 ORtg on 31% of the Bulls' possessions one year. That's so far off the charts that it makes Reggie and Kevin look like Desmond Mason by comparison...

  4. Neil Paine Says:

    That's right, Des. I'm still taking shots at your (lack of) efficiency last year.

  5. Jason J Says:

    I think TS% is more telling than FG% without a doubt, but it always bothers me a little that we don't consider the negative impact of unsuccessful offensive possessions. Just in terms of clock management I mean. Making 2 threes is just as good as making 3 twos, and if it takes you 5 or 6 possessions to do either that's great most of the time. But in situations, such as end of quarter, where you really need to get a bucket and not give the ball back to the other team on a missed field goad and an empty offensive possession - that's when the higher percentage shot, the shot less likely to lead to a miss, is important. In a case like that, I think FG% matters. And in the case of Kevin Martin, looking at FG%, you'd question his ability to use a possession without creating a miss.

    But of course if a player is taking ton of threes because it's more efficient overall, then that will skew his FG%. Maybe just keeping track of inside, midrange, and threes and making sure the shot with the maximum chance of success is attempted makes the best sense. If we do that then we'll know the Martin is a actually a good shooter inside as well (hypothetically, I don't know his shooting percentage from ranges), and he just looks bad because he takes SO many threes.

  6. Daniel Song Says:

    Is Kevin Martin a younger version of Corey Maggette?

    I think this is a good case of advanced statistics showing that Martin is a good player despite his low shooting percentage.

    FYI, Bob Cousy never shot 40% for a season. He is also considered to be one of the greatest players of all time. More recently Allen Iverson has been chided for his low FG% and Kobe for a mediocre FG%. Both of them will be joining Cousy in the Basketball Hall of Fame once they retire.

    As for Adam Dunn he has been a top 20 hitter in baseball throughout his career. He has been pilloried by fans and sportswriters, but make no mistake; general managers and fellow players know just how good he really is at the plate.