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Early SPM-Projected 2009-10 Standings

Posted by Neil Paine on September 9, 2009

Since everyone seems to be jumping on the projection bandwagon right now, here are the preliminary projected standings for 2010 (I'll explain the process at the bottom):

Team EffDiff Wins Losses
CLE 12.12 73.4 8.6
BOS 7.13 60.1 21.9
ORL 6.38 58.0 24.0
POR 6.31 57.8 24.2
LAL 5.55 55.8 26.2
NOH 4.75 53.7 28.3
SAS 4.28 52.4 29.6
UTA 4.06 51.8 30.2
DAL 3.90 51.4 30.6
DEN 2.33 47.2 34.8
TOR 1.26 44.3 37.7
HOU 0.97 43.5 38.5
ATL -0.01 40.9 41.1
PHO -0.59 39.3 42.7
MIA -0.90 38.5 43.5
IND -0.95 38.3 43.7
WAS -1.52 36.8 45.2
CHI -1.53 36.8 45.2
DET -1.73 36.3 45.7
MEM -2.50 34.2 47.8
CHA -2.57 34.0 48.0
GSW -3.68 31.0 51.0
PHI -4.10 29.9 52.1
NJN -4.40 29.1 52.9
OKC -4.45 29.0 53.0
LAC -5.19 27.0 55.0
MIL -5.34 26.6 55.4
SAC -6.05 24.6 57.4
MIN -6.73 22.8 59.2
NYK -6.81 22.6 59.4
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
JoeJohnson 2010 28 ATL 80 G 2674 1.69
JamalCrawford 2010 29 ATL 78 G 2251 -0.91
MikeBibby 2010 31 ATL 73 G 2240 1.06
JoshSmith 2010 24 ATL 81 F 2172 3.08
AlHorford 2010 23 ATL 82 C 2084 0.97
MarvinWilliams 2010 23 ATL 81 F 1963 -0.32
MauriceEvans 2010 31 ATL 77 G 1705 -1.97
ZazaPachulia 2010 25 ATL 83 C 1386 -0.85
JoeSmith 2010 34 ATL 82 F 1241 -2.20
JeffTeague 2010 21 ATL 74 G 989 -1.56
JasonCollins 2010 31 ATL 84 C 694 -4.33
RandolphMorris 2010 24 ATL 82 C 422 -2.71
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
PaulPierce 2010 32 BOS 78 F 2584 3.31
RayAllen 2010 34 BOS 77 G 2446 1.99
RajonRondo 2010 23 BOS 73 G 2274 5.34
KendrickPerkins 2010 25 BOS 82 C 1992 -0.52
RasheedWallace 2010 35 BOS 82 F 1934 2.73
KevinGarnett 2010 33 BOS 83 F 1695 4.24
MarquisDaniels 2010 29 BOS 78 G 1620 -3.05
EddieHouse 2010 31 BOS 73 G 1469 1.12
BillWalker 2010 22 BOS 78 F 536 -1.01
SheldenWilliams 2010 26 BOS 81 F 769 -2.60
TonyAllen 2010 28 BOS 76 G 768 -0.75
GlenDavis 2010 24 BOS 81 F 1220 -0.94
BrianScalabrine 2010 31 BOS 81 F 431 -2.38
J.R.Giddens 2010 24 BOS 77 G 87 -1.31
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
BorisDiaw 2010 27 CHA 80 F 2335 -0.66
GeraldWallace 2010 27 CHA 79 F 2280 5.02
RajaBell 2010 33 CHA 77 G 2075 -1.06
D.J.Augustin 2010 22 CHA 72 G 1613 -0.20
TysonChandler 2010 27 CHA 85 C 1544 -0.59
VladimirRadmanovic 2010 29 CHA 82 F 1447 -1.56
DeSaganaDiop 2010 28 CHA 84 C 1156 -1.15
GeraldHenderson 2010 21 CHA 76 G 989 -1.56
DerrickBrown 2010 22 CHA 80 F 989 -1.56
NazrMohammed 2010 32 CHA 82 C 766 -2.57
AlexisAjinca 2010 21 CHA 84 C 514 -1.60
DontellJefferson 2010 26 CHA 77 G 452 -1.20
Others CHA 3663 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
JohnSalmons 2010 30 CHI 79 G 2490 -0.63
DerrickRose 2010 21 CHI 75 G 2308 -0.99
BradMiller 2010 33 CHI 83 C 1951 1.75
TyrusThomas 2010 23 CHI 81 F 1896 0.35
JoakimNoah 2010 24 CHI 83 C 1788 2.89
LuolDeng 2010 24 CHI 80 F 1605 -0.57
KirkHinrich 2010 29 CHI 75 G 1428 1.12
JamesJohnson 2010 22 CHI 81 F 989 -1.56
TajGibson 2010 24 CHI 81 F 989 -1.56
LindseyHunter 2010 39 CHI 74 G 572 -2.18
JanneroPargo 2010 30 CHI 73 G 512 -2.53
JeromeJames 2010 34 CHI 84 C 399 -3.19
Others CHI 2894 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
LeBronJames 2010 25 CLE 80 F 2578 15.74
MoWilliams 2010 27 CLE 73 G 2392 0.90
AnthonyParker 2010 34 CLE 78 G 2290 0.25
ShaquilleO'Neal 2010 37 CLE 85 C 1984 1.89
AndersonVarejao 2010 27 CLE 82 F 1957 0.74
JamarioMoon 2010 29 CLE 80 F 1935 1.13
DelonteWest 2010 26 CLE 76 G 1874 0.62
ZydrunasIlgauskas 2010 34 CLE 87 C 1700 -0.36
DanielGibson 2010 23 CLE 74 G 1698 -0.72
J.J.Hickson 2010 21 CLE 81 F 847 -2.33
LeonPowe 2010 26 CLE 80 F 361 0.96
DannyGreen 2010 22 CLE 78 G 105 -1.56
DarnellJackson 2010 24 CLE 81 F 50 -2.28
JawadWilliams 2010 26 CLE 81 F 50 -1.83
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
DirkNowitzki 2010 31 DAL 84 F 2558 4.11
JasonKidd 2010 36 DAL 76 G 2465 4.19
JasonTerry 2010 32 DAL 74 G 2182 1.76
ShawnMarion 2010 31 DAL 79 F 2138 1.43
ErickDampier 2010 34 DAL 83 C 1702 0.75
JoshHoward 2010 29 DAL 79 F 1682 0.93
JoseBarea 2010 25 DAL 72 G 1459 -2.07
DrewGooden 2010 28 DAL 82 F 1368 -2.19
ShawneWilliams 2010 23 DAL 81 F 592 -1.75
NathanJawai 2010 23 DAL 82 F 410 -1.84
TimThomas 2010 32 DAL 82 F 860 -0.73
QuintonRoss 2010 28 DAL 78 G 771 -3.55
RodrigueBeaubois 2010 21 DAL 72 G 506 -1.56
GregBuckner 2010 33 DAL 76 G 496 -2.94
MattCarroll 2010 29 DAL 78 G 470 -3.25
KrisHumphries 2010 24 DAL 81 F 163 -1.15
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
ChaunceyBillups 2010 33 DEN 75 G 2373 3.74
CarmeloAnthony 2010 25 DEN 80 F 2077 2.70
NeneHilario 2010 27 DEN 83 F 1985 1.89
KenyonMartin 2010 32 DEN 81 F 1960 -0.24
J.R.Smith 2010 24 DEN 78 G 1939 2.34
AnthonyCarter 2010 34 DEN 73 G 1734 -1.34
ChrisAndersen 2010 31 DEN 82 F 1331 1.30
ArronAfflalo 2010 24 DEN 77 G 1283 -1.94
TyLawson 2010 21 DEN 71 G 989 -1.56
RenaldoBalkman 2010 25 DEN 80 F 967 1.16
MalikAllen 2010 31 DEN 82 F 864 -5.19
JohanPetro 2010 24 DEN 84 C 854 -2.81
Others DEN 1466 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
TayshaunPrince 2010 29 DET 81 F 2551 -0.31
BenGordon 2010 26 DET 75 G 2480 0.10
RodneyStuckey 2010 23 DET 77 G 2111 -0.19
RichardHamilton 2010 31 DET 78 G 2033 0.33
CharlieVillanueva 2010 25 DET 83 F 1896 0.89
BenWallace 2010 35 DET 81 F 1398 0.98
ChrisWilcox 2010 27 DET 82 F 1184 -1.73
KwameBrown 2010 27 DET 83 F 1081 -0.94
AustinDaye 2010 21 DET 83 F 989 -1.56
WillBynum 2010 27 DET 72 G 909 -0.92
JasonMaxiell 2010 26 DET 79 F 1145 -0.87
DeronWashington 2010 23 DET 79 F 681 -1.56
DaJuanSummers 2010 21 DET 80 F 681 -1.56
JonasJerebko 2010 22 DET 82 F 681 -1.56
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
StephenJackson 2010 31 GSW 80 F 2122 0.38
KelennaAzubuike 2010 26 GSW 77 G 2071 -1.66
AndrisBiedrins 2010 23 GSW 83 C 1742 2.37
CoreyMaggette 2010 30 GSW 78 F 1612 1.07
RonnyTuriaf 2010 27 GSW 82 F 1602 1.11
AnthonyMorrow 2010 24 GSW 77 G 1363 -1.55
MikkiMoore 2010 34 GSW 83 C 1359 -2.43
MontaEllis 2010 24 GSW 75 G 1219 -0.96
AnthonyRandolph 2010 20 GSW 82 F 1117 -0.64
StephenCurry 2010 21 GSW 75 G 989 -1.56
DeveanGeorge 2010 32 GSW 80 G 903 -3.48
BrandanWright 2010 22 GSW 81 F 874 -0.91
AcieLaw 2010 25 GSW 75 G 843 -3.32
SpeedyClaxton 2010 31 GSW 71 G 384 -2.79
Others GSW 1623 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
LuisScola 2010 29 HOU 81 F 2188 0.65
ShaneBattier 2010 31 HOU 80 F 1919 1.68
AaronBrooks 2010 25 HOU 72 G 1732 -1.14
TrevorAriza 2010 24 HOU 80 F 1697 3.22
KyleLowry 2010 23 HOU 72 G 1676 1.31
CarlLandry 2010 26 HOU 81 F 1405 -0.29
TracyMcGrady 2010 30 HOU 80 F 1341 3.00
ChuckHayes 2010 26 HOU 78 F 1066 0.47
DavidAndersen 2010 29 HOU 83 F 989 -1.56
JermaineTaylor 2010 22 HOU 76 G 989 -1.56
ChaseBudinger 2010 21 HOU 79 F 989 -1.56
BrentBarry 2010 38 HOU 78 G 963 0.05
PopsMensah-Bonsu 2010 26 HOU 81 F 577 -2.30
BrianCook 2010 29 HOU 81 F 548 -3.17
JamesWhite 2010 27 HOU 79 G 402 -2.07
JoeyDorsey 2010 26 HOU 80 F 402 -1.54
YaoMing 2010 29 HOU 90 C 50 2.49
Others HOU 889 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
DannyGranger 2010 26 IND 80 F 2171 3.71
TroyMurphy 2010 29 IND 83 F 2151 3.07
T.J.Ford 2010 26 IND 72 G 1907 -0.11
JeffFoster 2010 33 IND 83 F 1714 0.86
EarlWatson 2010 30 IND 73 G 1711 -2.35
BrandonRush 2010 24 IND 78 F 1546 -3.28
DahntayJones 2010 29 IND 78 G 1289 -3.26
RoyHibbert 2010 23 IND 86 C 1041 -0.14
TylerHansbrough 2010 23 IND 81 F 989 -1.56
A.J.Price 2010 22 IND 74 G 989 -1.56
TravisDiener 2010 27 IND 73 G 987 -0.21
MikeDunleavyJr. 2010 29 IND 81 G 955 0.65
SolomonJones 2010 25 IND 82 F 828 -1.70
JoshMcRoberts 2010 22 IND 82 F 579 -0.73
Others IND 965 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
AlThornton 2010 26 LAC 80 F 2308 -3.03
BaronDavis 2010 30 LAC 75 G 2104 2.61
EricGordon 2010 21 LAC 75 G 2103 -0.49
RasualButler 2010 30 LAC 79 G 2101 -2.22
SebastianTelfair 2010 24 LAC 72 G 1893 -2.05
MarcusCamby 2010 35 LAC 83 F 1851 2.38
CraigSmith 2010 26 LAC 79 F 1450 -1.23
ChrisKaman 2010 27 LAC 84 C 1147 -1.87
RickyDavis 2010 30 LAC 78 G 1131 -2.41
MardyCollins 2010 25 LAC 78 G 1012 -3.10
BlakeGriffin 2010 20 LAC 82 F 989 -1.56
DeAndreJordan 2010 21 LAC 83 C 889 -1.18
Others LAC 844 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
KobeBryant 2010 31 LAL 78 G 2536 5.96
PauGasol 2010 29 LAL 84 F 2499 2.97
DerekFisher 2010 35 LAL 73 G 2129 -0.37
RonArtest 2010 30 LAL 78 F 2121 3.22
LamarOdom 2010 30 LAL 82 F 2120 2.34
AndrewBynum 2010 22 LAL 84 C 1381 1.02
SashaVujacic 2010 25 LAL 79 G 1330 1.27
JordanFarmar 2010 23 LAL 74 G 1304 -1.25
LukeWalton 2010 29 LAL 80 F 1272 -1.76
JoshPowell 2010 27 LAL 81 F 963 -5.13
AdamMorrison 2010 25 LAL 80 F 798 -3.80
ShannonBrown 2010 24 LAL 76 G 722 -2.38
D.J.Mbenga 2010 29 LAL 84 C 545 -1.61
Others LAL 103 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
RudyGay 2010 23 MEM 81 F 2531 -0.41
O.J.Mayo 2010 22 MEM 76 G 2385 -0.88
MikeConley 2010 22 MEM 73 G 2136 -0.17
AllenIverson 2010 34 MEM 72 G 2017 0.66
MarcGasol 2010 25 MEM 85 C 2003 1.25
ZachRandolph 2010 28 MEM 81 F 1690 0.36
DarrellArthur 2010 21 MEM 81 F 1330 -1.16
DeMarreCarroll 2010 23 MEM 80 F 989 -1.56
HasheemThabeet 2010 22 MEM 87 C 989 -1.56
MarkoJaric 2010 31 MEM 79 G 971 -1.51
MarcusWilliams 2010 24 MEM 75 G 489 -2.61
SamYoung 2010 24 MEM 78 F 856 -1.56
HamedHaddadi 2010 24 MEM 86 C 341 -0.08
TreyGilder 2010 24 MEM 81 F 856 -1.56
StevenHunter 2010 28 MEM 84 C 240 -3.19
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
DwyaneWade 2010 28 MIA 76 G 2494 9.22
UdonisHaslem 2010 29 MIA 80 F 2156 -2.96
MarioChalmers 2010 23 MIA 73 G 2070 2.39
JermaineO'Neal 2010 31 MIA 83 F 1756 -1.63
QuentinRichardson 2010 29 MIA 78 G 1755 -1.57
DaequanCook 2010 22 MIA 77 G 1709 -1.77
MichaelBeasley 2010 21 MIA 82 F 1677 -1.37
ChrisQuinn 2010 26 MIA 74 G 1138 -1.10
JoelAnthony 2010 27 MIA 81 C 1116 -2.06
YakhoubaDiawara 2010 27 MIA 79 F 968 -3.81
JamesJones 2010 29 MIA 80 F 898 -1.71
JamaalMagloire 2010 31 MIA 83 C 840 -3.93
DorellWright 2010 24 MIA 79 G 528 -1.51
Others MIA 718 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
LukeRidnour 2010 28 MIL 74 G 1770 -0.16
LucMbahaMoute 2010 23 MIL 80 F 1744 -0.65
CharlieBell 2010 30 MIL 75 G 1635 -2.18
KurtThomas 2010 37 MIL 81 F 1426 0.27
MichaelRedd 2010 30 MIL 78 G 1393 1.01
AndrewBogut 2010 25 MIL 84 C 1339 0.49
FranciscoElson 2010 33 MIL 84 C 1073 -2.71
DanGadzuric 2010 31 MIL 83 C 1033 -1.55
BrandonJennings 2010 19 MIL 73 G 989 -1.56
JodieMeeks 2010 22 MIL 76 G 989 -1.56
RokoUkic 2010 25 MIL 77 G 965 -3.24
JoeAlexander 2010 23 MIL 80 F 854 -1.96
CarlosDelfino 2010 27 MIL 78 G 563 1.11
WalterSharpe 2010 23 MIL 81 F 411 -1.49
ErsanIlyasova 2010 22 MIL 81 F 376 -0.82
Others MIL 3263 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
RyanGomes 2010 27 MIN 79 F 2259 -1.69
RamonSessions 2010 23 MIN 75 G 1828 1.32
AlJefferson 2010 25 MIN 82 F 1812 1.71
KevinLove 2010 21 MIN 82 F 1702 -0.09
DariusSongaila 2010 31 MIN 81 F 1509 -2.51
BrianCardinal 2010 32 MIN 80 F 1015 -0.41
BobbyBrown 2010 25 MIN 74 G 991 -4.41
JonnyFlynn 2010 20 MIN 72 G 989 -1.56
WayneEllington 2010 21 MIN 76 G 989 -1.56
DamienWilkins 2010 30 MIN 78 F 944 -2.70
CoreyBrewer 2010 23 MIN 81 F 777 -1.48
RyanHollins 2010 25 MIN 84 C 731 -1.49
ChuckyAtkins 2010 35 MIN 71 G 650 -3.38
MarkBlount 2010 34 MIN 84 C 629 -5.91
OleksiyPecherov 2010 24 MIN 84 C 607 -2.47
Others MIN 2391 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
DevinHarris 2010 26 NJN 75 G 2145 3.95
BrookLopez 2010 21 NJN 84 C 1991 -0.76
KeyonDooling 2010 29 NJN 75 G 1822 -1.34
JarvisHayes 2010 28 NJN 79 F 1659 -2.53
BobbySimmons 2010 29 NJN 79 G 1654 -0.88
CourtneyLee 2010 24 NJN 77 G 1633 -0.96
YiJianlian 2010 22 NJN 84 F 1470 -1.89
JoshBoone 2010 25 NJN 82 F 1197 -1.57
TonyBattie 2010 33 NJN 83 C 1128 -3.92
EduardoNajera 2010 33 NJN 80 F 733 -0.66
RaferAlston 2010 33 NJN 74 G 1865 1.24
TrentonHassell 2010 30 NJN 77 G 844 -5.05
TerrenceWilliams 2010 22 NJN 78 G 710 -1.56
ChrisDouglasRoberts 2010 23 NJN 79 G 491 -2.95
SeanWilliams 2010 23 NJN 82 F 482 -1.38
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
ChrisPaul 2010 24 NOH 72 G 2562 14.25
DavidWest 2010 29 NOH 81 F 2546 0.48
EmekaOkafor 2010 27 NOH 82 F 2335 -0.28
PejaStojakovic 2010 32 NOH 81 F 1994 -0.27
JamesPosey 2010 33 NOH 80 F 1903 1.01
AntonioDaniels 2010 34 NOH 76 G 1228 -2.26
HiltonArmstrong 2010 25 NOH 83 F 1153 -2.66
DevinBrown 2010 31 NOH 77 G 1093 -2.35
MorrisPeterson 2010 32 NOH 79 F 874 -1.66
IkeDiogu 2010 26 NOH 80 F 549 -2.78
DarrenCollison 2010 22 NOH 72 G 916 -1.56
MarcusThornton 2010 22 NOH 76 G 916 -1.56
JulianWright 2010 22 NOH 80 F 881 -1.32
SeanMarks 2010 34 NOH 82 F 871 -4.83
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
ChrisDuhon 2010 27 NYK 73 G 2357 -1.22
WilsonChandler 2010 22 NYK 80 F 2209 -0.82
AlHarrington 2010 29 NYK 81 F 2184 0.22
LarryHughes 2010 31 NYK 77 G 1487 -0.76
JaredJeffries 2010 28 NYK 83 F 1337 -2.36
DarkoMilicic 2010 24 NYK 84 F 1182 -1.47
ToneyDouglas 2010 23 NYK 73 G 989 -1.56
JordanHill 2010 22 NYK 82 F 989 -1.56
ChrisHunter 2010 25 NYK 83 F 989 -1.56
CuttinoMobley 2010 34 NYK 76 G 841 -3.36
DaniloGallinari 2010 21 NYK 82 F 660 -0.50
EddyCurry 2010 27 NYK 83 C 497 -3.72
JoeCrawford 2010 23 NYK 77 F 413 -1.10
Others NYK 3687 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
KevinDurant 2010 21 OKC 81 F 2517 1.67
JeffGreen 2010 23 OKC 81 F 2455 -0.91
RussellWestbrook 2010 21 OKC 75 G 2097 -0.02
NickCollison 2010 29 OKC 81 F 1736 0.07
ThaboSefolosha 2010 25 OKC 77 G 1448 -0.29
NenadKrstic 2010 26 OKC 84 C 1188 -3.31
KyleWeaver 2010 23 OKC 78 G 1141 -0.90
JamesHarden 2010 20 OKC 77 G 989 -1.56
B.J.Mullens 2010 20 OKC 84 C 989 -1.56
SergeIbaka 2010 19 OKC 82 C 989 -1.56
KevinOllie 2010 37 OKC 76 G 949 -3.21
EtanThomas 2010 31 OKC 81 F 565 -4.14
ShaunLivingston 2010 24 OKC 79 G 509 -1.38
D.J.White 2010 23 OKC 81 F 481 -0.72
Others OKC 1769 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
VinceCarter 2010 33 ORL 79 G 2504 3.18
RashardLewis 2010 30 ORL 82 F 2478 3.25
DwightHoward 2010 24 ORL 83 C 2440 7.04
MattBarnes 2010 29 ORL 79 F 1827 0.63
BrandonBass 2010 24 ORL 80 F 1555 -2.20
AnthonyJohnson 2010 35 ORL 75 G 1467 -2.47
JameerNelson 2010 27 ORL 72 G 1378 2.66
MickaelPietrus 2010 27 ORL 78 G 1334 -0.30
RyanAnderson 2010 21 ORL 82 F 1234 -0.08
J.J.Redick 2010 25 ORL 76 G 1120 -1.91
MarcinGortat 2010 25 ORL 84 F 908 -0.33
JasonWilliams 2010 34 ORL 73 G 548 -0.67
AdonalFoyle 2010 34 ORL 82 C 506 -2.89
Others ORL 524 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
AndreIguodala 2010 26 PHI 78 G 2740 5.00
ThaddeusYoung 2010 21 PHI 80 F 2197 -0.49
SamuelDalembert 2010 28 PHI 83 C 1914 -2.18
LouisWilliams 2010 23 PHI 74 G 1794 0.95
WillieGreen 2010 28 PHI 76 G 1721 -3.22
JasonKapono 2010 28 PHI 80 F 1680 -4.45
MarreeseSpeights 2010 22 PHI 82 F 1202 -0.66
RoyalIvey 2010 28 PHI 75 G 1080 -2.52
JrueHolliday 2010 19 PHI 75 G 989 -1.56
EltonBrand 2010 30 PHI 80 F 942 -0.74
JasonSmith 2010 23 PHI 84 F 511 -2.09
PrimozBrezec 2010 30 PHI 86 C 427 -4.18
Others PHI 2625 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
JasonRichardson 2010 29 PHO 78 G 2215 1.71
SteveNash 2010 35 PHO 75 G 2202 0.93
GrantHill 2010 37 PHO 80 F 2135 0.24
AmareStoudemire 2010 27 PHO 82 F 1850 2.80
LeandroBarbosa 2010 27 PHO 75 G 1671 1.60
JaredDudley 2010 24 PHO 79 F 1274 -0.03
SashaPavlovic 2010 26 PHO 80 G 1155 -2.42
LouisAmundson 2010 27 PHO 81 F 1067 -1.42
EarlClark 2010 21 PHO 81 F 989 -1.56
TaylorGriffin 2010 23 PHO 79 F 989 -1.56
ChanningFrye 2010 26 PHO 83 F 967 -2.54
GoranDragic 2010 23 PHO 76 G 862 -1.76
RobinLopez 2010 21 PHO 84 C 789 -1.43
AlandoTucker 2010 25 PHO 78 F 583 -3.49
Others PHO 1074 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
LaMarcusAldridge 2010 24 POR 83 F 2549 1.04
AndreMiller 2010 33 POR 74 G 2533 1.75
BrandonRoy 2010 25 POR 78 G 2485 5.97
TravisOutlaw 2010 25 POR 81 F 2016 -0.54
SteveBlake 2010 29 POR 75 G 1988 0.40
JoelPrzybilla 2010 30 POR 85 C 1810 -0.32
RudyFernandez 2010 24 POR 78 G 1667 2.69
NicolasBatum 2010 21 POR 80 F 1324 0.84
GregOden 2010 22 POR 84 C 1235 1.55
JerrydBayless 2010 21 POR 75 G 815 -1.87
MartellWebster 2010 23 POR 81 G 579 -0.88
Others POR 822 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
BenoUdrih 2010 27 SAC 75 G 2034 -2.49
SpencerHawes 2010 21 SAC 84 C 1931 -1.38
JasonThompson 2010 23 SAC 83 F 1865 -1.57
AndresNocioni 2010 30 SAC 79 F 1840 -0.83
FranciscoGarcia 2010 28 SAC 79 F 1837 0.13
KevinMartin 2010 26 SAC 79 G 1799 2.33
SergioRodriguez 2010 23 SAC 75 G 1222 -0.71
TyrekeEvans 2010 19 SAC 78 G 989 -1.56
OmriCasspi 2010 21 SAC 81 F 989 -1.56
DonteGreene 2010 21 SAC 83 F 860 -2.88
SeanMay 2010 25 SAC 81 F 571 -3.46
KennyThomas 2010 32 SAC 79 F 434 -3.59
Others SAC 3451 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
RichardJefferson 2010 29 SAS 79 F 2551 0.13
TimDuncan 2010 33 SAS 83 F 2212 5.15
RogerMason 2010 29 SAS 77 G 2150 -1.43
TonyParker 2010 27 SAS 74 G 2141 1.70
MichaelFinley 2010 36 SAS 79 G 2068 -2.47
AntonioMcDyess 2010 35 SAS 81 F 1780 0.65
MattBonner 2010 29 SAS 82 F 1698 1.40
ManuGinobili 2010 32 SAS 78 G 1337 7.21
GeorgeHill 2010 23 SAS 74 G 1207 -0.45
TheoRatliff 2010 36 SAS 82 C 810 -0.30
DeJuanBlair 2010 20 SAS 79 F 825 -1.56
MalikHairston 2010 22 SAS 78 G 333 -1.16
MarcusWilliams(II) 2010 23 SAS 79 F 240 -1.22
IanMahinmi 2010 23 SAS 83 C 237 -0.86
MarcusHaislip 2010 29 SAS 82 F 234 -1.86
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
ChrisBosh 2010 25 TOR 82 F 2449 4.54
HedoTurkoglu 2010 30 TOR 82 F 2447 2.36
JarrettJack 2010 26 TOR 75 G 2294 -1.12
AndreaBargnani 2010 24 TOR 84 F 2112 -0.82
JoseCalderon 2010 28 TOR 75 G 2100 2.63
AntoineWright 2010 25 TOR 79 G 1486 -2.31
RashoNesterovic 2010 33 TOR 84 C 1284 -1.97
AmirJohnson 2010 22 TOR 81 F 1053 1.23
DemarDeRozan 2010 20 TOR 79 F 989 -1.56
MarcoBelinelli 2010 23 TOR 77 G 984 -2.19
ReggieEvans 2010 29 TOR 80 F 1107 -1.06
QuincyDouby 2010 25 TOR 75 G 487 -3.35
MarcusBanks 2010 28 TOR 74 G 393 -2.18
PatrickO'Bryant 2010 23 TOR 84 C 385 -1.23
SonnyWeems 2010 23 TOR 78 G 250 -2.49
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
RonnieBrewer 2010 24 UTA 79 G 2254 1.35
DeronWilliams 2010 25 UTA 75 G 2238 2.42
MehmetOkur 2010 30 UTA 83 F 2115 1.66
PaulMillsap 2010 24 UTA 80 F 1996 3.18
AndreiKirilenko 2010 28 UTA 81 F 1743 2.72
KyleKorver 2010 28 UTA 79 F 1716 -0.36
C.J.Miles 2010 22 UTA 78 G 1493 -0.86
CarlosBoozer 2010 28 UTA 81 F 1390 2.12
MattHarpring 2010 33 UTA 79 F 935 -2.43
RonniePrice 2010 26 UTA 74 G 915 -1.97
KostaKoufos 2010 20 UTA 84 C 758 -0.88
KyryloFesenko 2010 23 UTA 85 C 505 -0.65
EricMaynor 2010 22 UTA 75 G 989 -1.56
Others UTA 776 -1.82
Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos ProjMin Proj+/-
AntawnJamison 2010 33 WAS 80 F 2620 2.30
CaronButler 2010 29 WAS 79 F 2223 2.39
MikeMiller 2010 29 WAS 80 F 2088 0.96
RandyFoye 2010 26 WAS 76 G 2072 -0.48
DominicMcGuire 2010 24 WAS 81 F 1788 -1.12
NickYoung 2010 24 WAS 78 G 1686 -3.57
AndrayBlatche 2010 23 WAS 83 F 1637 -0.80
JaValeMcGee 2010 22 WAS 84 C 1126 -1.22
BrendanHaywood 2010 30 WAS 84 C 697 -0.91
GilbertArenas 2010 28 WAS 75 G 415 4.43
MikeJames 2010 34 WAS 74 G 1136 -4.33
JavarisCrittenton 2010 22 WAS 77 G 876 -2.08
DeShawnStevenson 2010 28 WAS 77 G 830 -2.30
FabricioOberto 2010 34 WAS 82 F 627 -0.36

Mind you, this is a completely automated projection system -- no human bias was introduced at any point... SPM was developed through a regression on adjusted plus/minus, I used the method described here to project SPM in 2010, last year's average rookie values of -1.56 SPM and 989 minutes were plugged for all 2010 rookies, a regression equation was used to project minutes played (MP_Y = 398.1 + 0.637*MP_Y-1 + 0.102*MP_Y-2 - 0.023*MP_Y-3), wins were calculated by (W = 40.9 + 2.68*EffDiff), and ESPN's depth charts were used for current rosters.

Now, discuss.

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24 Responses to “Early SPM-Projected 2009-10 Standings”

  1. Neil Paine Says:

    So, eye-catching items: Cleveland's insane win total, Portland over L.A. in the West, Denver ranked 7th in the conference, Western dominance, and Toronto's surprise season.

  2. Gerrit Says:

    Very surprising that you have Boston, Orlando, LA and San Antonio all winning fewer games despite adding talent and salary over the off season.

    That win total for Cleveland is massive. I'm taken aback by how good SPM projects them to be. I looked up the '96 Bulls to compare the efficiency differential and it shows that the Bulls had a higher efficiency differential (13.4 vs 12.12), but had a lower Pythagorean win total (70 vs 73.4). Why is that? Are you using a different formula than the main site?

  3. Eddy Says:

    Not too surprised at Toronto's projection. Colangelo did a good job of acquiring talent that, stylistically, fits what the Raptors are trying to accomplish.

  4. Jason J Says:

    And on the pedestal, these words appear:
    "I am LeBron James, King of Kings. Look on my stats, ye mighty, and despair."
    Nothing else remains.

  5. Neil Paine Says:

    I can't tell whether that was a Watchmen reference of your own or just a Shelley reference, but either way it doesn't bode well for Bron-Bron...

  6. Kevin Broom Says:

    How did you estimate minutes? Looking at the Wizards, the expectation is for Arenas and Haywood to play significant minutes (something around 2600 minutes for Arenas (a low-end projection), and probably 2100 minutes for Haywood). There's no way Mike James will get 1100+ minutes next season.

  7. Todd Says:

    It looks like the wins are being calculated linearly instead of using a Pythagorean method, which explains why the amount of wins projected for CLE is so high. The Pythagorean projected win total for CLE should still be below 70.

    Anyway, it seems like the biggest problem with this projection is with projecting minutes. The amount of minutes projected for Arenas seems unreasonably low, even for an injury-prone player, while the projected minutes for Adam Morrison is probably too high (since he won't be able to get off the bench in LAL). If you can figure out a better way of projecting minutes it would greatly improve how effective these projections are.

  8. twggyy Says:

    Does that mean LeBron is 3 times better than Kobe according to the Proj+/-? Lebron gets a +15.74 and Kobe gets a +5.96? That just seems odd, but I don't claim to understand the stats well. It seems to slant things, as Chris Paul gets a +/- as good as LeBron, and neither team won the title. I guess there is a lot that stats don't show, and I'm sure no one is going to argue that. It will be really intersting to compare this to the actual results at the end of the year.

  9. Neil Paine Says:

    Those results (CP3, Wade, and LeBron being 2-3 times as valuable on a per-possession basis as Bryant) are actually pretty consistent with what the low-noise adjusted plus/minus ratings -- which use no box score data -- find, especially when you consider that Kobe is past his prime and LeBron/Paul/Wade are just entering theirs. When both a pure boxscore metric and a pure non-boxscore metric agree on something like this, it effectively confirms that A) the LeBron/Wade/Paul troika is the best in the league going forward, and B) Bryant is pretty vastly overrated right now.

  10. Anon Says:

    "...Bryant is pretty vastly overrated right now."

    Careful, Neil. I already hear the Kobe fans coming to hunt you down.

  11. Anon Says:

    Hmmm...after looking at Justin's reliable Win Shares it too has James, Wade, and Paul being the cream of the crop in the NBA. Dwight Howard as well, WS and SPM has him in the league's upper echelon. I don't think I've seen the NBA have THIS much young talent dominate their league in quite some time (Wade's the "old man" of the group and he's 27).

  12. Neil Paine Says:

    LOL, they're firing up the old Kobe-Signal as we speak...

  13. Eddy Says:

    I just noticed that Jameer Nelson's projected minutes is awfully low, less than Anthony Johnson's. I know 'Meer has had the penchant of missing some time during the regular season, but even still, I think one has to give him the benefit of the doubt for projection purposes. Perhaps I'm wrong, not sure.

  14. khandor Says:

    Do you fellas actually think this type of uber in-depth "statistical analysis" helps you [and others] to understand how the NBA game works?

    From an elite level basketball perspective ... I can tell you that it simply does not.

    Understanding baseball numerology of this type is one thing ... that can be highly instructive for neophytes ... but, understanding and, then, applying basketball numerology of this type is a different matter altogether.

    e.g. No further statement need be made on the subject, as damning evidence of this fact, after reading:

    "[Kobe] Bryant is pretty vastly overrated right now."

    "Seasonal averages and percentages", "low noise" numerical distributions, and all manner of other "advanced stats" [etc.] do not win a team a NBA championship.

    Here's a predication/projection for the coming season which I will provide for you based on my Basketball Acumen ... rather than statistical research.

    The Cleveland Cavaliers WILL NOT win the 2009-2010 NBA championship.

    PS. I look forward to seeing how accurate my opinion turns out to be 10 months from now.

  15. Anon Says:

    "Do you fellas actually think this type of uber in-depth "statistical analysis" helps you [and others] to understand how the NBA game works?"

    Yes.

  16. Anon Says:

    "e.g. No further statement need be made on the subject, as damning evidence of this fact, after reading:

    '[Kobe] Bryant is pretty vastly overrated right now.'"

    See Neil? I told you they were coming for you. I tooooooooooooold you :)

  17. khandor Says:

    BTW ... and, FWIW, I am not a "Kobe fan".

  18. Tsunami Says:

    The Cavs have some good efficient players this year - I almost think last years loss was a fluke to Orlando - but as a Cleveland fan I obviously don't REALLY believe a Cleveland team will EVER win anything. But if it is supposed to happen - this will be the year. LeBron is by far the best player in the league and i really like the Moon/Parker/Powe signings.

  19. realtor Says:

    :)

    '[Kobe] Bryant is pretty vastly overrated right now.'"

    I guess yourself and your uber mensch statistics are vastly overrated.

    Your site is really cool mind you but this peculiar bias of yours is reaally annoying.Do yo get any commission from LeCrab by the way?

  20. Walter Says:

    Seeing Cleveland's win total so high is eye popping... kind of reminds of this past SPM prediction: "Cleveland vs Orlando in the playoffs... Cleveland wins 82.1%, Orlando wins 17.9%"
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2491

    We can see how SPM over-predicted the Cavs there, I would be willing to bet it is over-predicting again. Unless of course someone wants to take a bet they win 74+ games???

  21. Neil Paine Says:

    Hey, 17.9% still gave them a chance, and they won. Improbable doesn't mean impossible...

  22. Neil Paine Says:

    ...But, no, I wouldn't go to Vegas with this win total and bet the farm. Like I say, this is very preliminary work, with a very rudimentary playing-time projection in place.

  23. josh Says:

    B-roy has a better +/- than kobe! and portland is the best in the west. this pleases me.

  24. Ryan Says:

    Hey Neil,

    Can you please post the 2009-10 final results...I loved the all-time list that you generated for 1952-2008(9).

    Also, do you have an updated all-time database that has been uploaded anywhere?

    The SPM series is the most exciting I have experienced.

    If I were to mimic the Hall of Fame in size, the following would be my SPM hall of famers along with currently ineligibles:

    AdrianDantley Total
    AllenIverson Total
    AlvanAdams Total
    AlvinRobertson Total
    ArtisGilmore Total
    ArvydasSabonis Total
    BaileyHowell Total
    BaronDavis Total
    BillBridges Total
    BillRussell Total
    BillyCunningham Total
    BobbyJones Total
    BobCousy Total *
    BobLanier Total
    BobMcAdoo Total
    BobPettit Total
    CharlesBarkley Total
    ChaunceyBillups Total
    ChrisPaul Total
    ChrisWebber Total
    CliffHagan Total
    ClydeDrexler Total
    ConnieHawkins Total
    DanIssel Total
    DaveCowens Total
    DavidRobinson Total
    DerekHarper Total
    DirkNowitzki Total
    DocRivers Total
    DolphSchayes Total
    DominiqueWilkins Total
    DwyaneWade Total
    EddieJones Total
    EdMacauley Total
    ElginBaylor Total
    EltonBrand Total
    ElvinHayes Total
    FatLever Total
    GaryPayton Total
    GeorgeGervin Total
    GeorgeMcGinnis Total
    GeorgeMikan Total *
    GrantHill Total
    HakeemOlajuwon Total
    HarryGallatin Total
    IsiahThomas Total
    JackSikma Total
    JasonKidd Total
    JeffHornacek Total
    JerryLucas Total
    JerryWest Total
    JohnDrew Total
    JohnHavlicek Total
    JohnStockton Total
    JuliusErving Total
    KareemAbdul-Jabbar Total
    KarlMalone Total
    KevinGarnett Total
    KobeBryant Total
    LarryBird Total
    LarryFoust Total
    LarryNance Total
    LeBronJames Total
    LennyWilkens Total
    MagicJohnson Total
    ManuGinobili Total
    MarquesJohnson Total
    MauriceCheeks Total
    MichaelJordan Total
    MichealRayRichardson Total
    MookieBlaylock Total
    MosesMalone Total
    NateMcMillan Total
    NateThurmond Total
    NeilJohnston Total
    OscarRobertson Total
    PatrickEwing Total
    PaulArizin Total
    PaulPierce Total
    RayAllen Total
    ReggieMiller Total
    RichieGuerin Total
    RickBarry Total
    RobertParish Total
    SamLacey Total
    ScottiePippen Total
    ShaquilleO'Neal Total
    ShawnKemp Total
    ShawnMarion Total
    SidneyMoncrief Total
    TerryPorter Total
    TimDuncan Total
    TimHardaway Total
    TracyMcGrady Total
    VernMikkelsen Total
    VinceCarter Total
    VladeDivac Total
    WaltBellamy Total
    WaltFrazier Total
    WesUnseld Total
    WiltChamberlain Total

    Thanks again for all the hard work and effort you have put into this project...it has greatly enriched my understanding of the all-time greats...who knew Doc Rivers, Nate McMillan, and Alvan Adams were awesome!