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Early SPM-Projected 2009-10 Standings, Part II

Posted by Neil Paine on September 14, 2009

Last week, we took a very preliminary look at what our Statistical Plus/Minus projection system saw in the cards for the 2009-10 NBA Season. To project minutes played, we used a very simplistic regression equation that took a weighted average of a player's minutes over the past three seasons and regressed it heavily to the mean. Of course, this is a very rough way to estimate what a player's minutes will be next season; in fact, the standard error of the playing time regression (done on all players from 1978-2009) was 674.8, meaning that the prediction was likely to be off by a significant amount in either direction, too high or too low. As you might guess, this could severely impact the accuracy of the projected standings.

So one suggestion was to treat all starters the same, all backups the same, and all bench-filler players the same -- no regressions based on past playing time trends, but rather use a set amount of minutes based on depth chart position. That's actually something I dabbled in before last season, so I decided to give it a whirl here as well. The premise is that, historically, a team's "starters" (its 5 leading minutes-earners, that is) use 60% of the team's total player-minutes; its "2nd-stringers" (#6-10 in team MP) use 30% of the team's minutes; and the rest of the roster uses 10% of team MP combined. So that's the playing time standard I applied to our SPM projections, using ESPN's depth charts once again to determine which "tier" to place each player in. I'll call these our "talent" ratings, because they do not reflect a player's durability, but rather his true +/- talent and the coach's willingness to play him. If each season goes according to plan injury-wise for each team, here is SPM's best guess at the standings for 2010:

East EffDiff Wins Losses
CLE 10.08 68.0 14.0
BOS 6.46 58.3 23.7
ORL 6.45 58.3 23.7
WAS 1.66 45.5 36.5
TOR 0.57 42.5 39.5
ATL -0.20 40.5 41.5
IND -0.47 39.7 42.3
CHI -1.61 36.7 45.3
MIA -1.88 36.0 46.0
CHA -2.16 35.2 46.8
DET -2.40 34.6 47.4
MIL -2.84 33.4 48.6
NJN -4.89 27.9 54.1
PHI -5.54 26.2 55.8
NYK -6.82 22.7 59.3
West EffDiff Wins Losses
POR 6.11 57.4 24.6
SAS 5.38 55.4 26.6
LAL 5.29 55.2 26.8
UTA 4.47 53.0 29.0
DAL 3.33 49.9 32.1
NOH 3.01 49.1 32.9
DEN 2.88 48.7 33.3
HOU 1.54 45.1 36.9
PHO -0.71 39.1 42.9
GSW -1.93 35.8 46.2
MEM -2.94 33.1 48.9
MIN -5.42 26.5 55.5
OKC -5.74 25.6 56.4
LAC -5.83 25.4 56.6
SAC -5.85 25.3 56.7

And the player ratings that generated those standings:

Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 JoeJohnson 2010 28 ATL 80 G 1.58
1 MikeBibby 2010 31 ATL 73 G 0.94
1 JoshSmith 2010 24 ATL 81 F 2.97
1 AlHorford 2010 23 ATL 82 C 0.85
1 MarvinWilliams 2010 23 ATL 81 F -0.44
2 JamalCrawford 2010 29 ATL 78 G -1.03
2 MauriceEvans 2010 31 ATL 77 G -2.09
2 ZazaPachulia 2010 25 ATL 83 C -0.96
2 JoeSmith 2010 34 ATL 82 F -2.31
2 JeffTeague 2010 21 ATL 74 G -1.68
3 JasonCollins 2010 31 ATL 84 C -4.45
3 RandolphMorris 2010 24 ATL 82 C -2.83
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 PaulPierce 2010 32 BOS 78 F 3.19
1 RayAllen 2010 34 BOS 77 G 1.88
1 RajonRondo 2010 23 BOS 73 G 5.22
1 KendrickPerkins 2010 25 BOS 82 C -0.64
1 KevinGarnett 2010 33 BOS 83 F 4.12
2 RasheedWallace 2010 35 BOS 82 F 2.61
2 MarquisDaniels 2010 29 BOS 78 G -3.17
2 EddieHouse 2010 31 BOS 73 G 1.00
2 BillWalker 2010 22 BOS 78 F -1.13
2 SheldenWilliams 2010 26 BOS 81 F -2.72
3 TonyAllen 2010 28 BOS 76 G -0.87
3 GlenDavis 2010 24 BOS 81 F -1.06
3 BrianScalabrine 2010 31 BOS 81 F -2.50
3 J.R.Giddens 2010 24 BOS 77 G -1.43
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 BorisDiaw 2010 27 CHA 80 F -0.78
1 GeraldWallace 2010 27 CHA 79 F 4.90
1 RajaBell 2010 33 CHA 77 G -1.17
1 D.J.Augustin 2010 22 CHA 72 G -0.32
1 TysonChandler 2010 27 CHA 85 C -0.71
2 VladimirRadmanovic 2010 29 CHA 82 F -1.68
2 DeSaganaDiop 2010 28 CHA 84 C -1.27
2 GeraldHenderson 2010 21 CHA 76 G -1.68
2 DerrickBrown 2010 22 CHA 80 F -1.68
2 DontellJefferson 2010 26 CHA 77 G -1.31
3 NazrMohammed 2010 32 CHA 82 C -2.69
3 AlexisAjinca 2010 21 CHA 84 C -1.71
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 JohnSalmons 2010 30 CHI 79 G -0.75
1 DerrickRose 2010 21 CHI 75 G -1.11
1 BradMiller 2010 33 CHI 83 C 1.63
1 JoakimNoah 2010 24 CHI 83 C 2.78
1 LuolDeng 2010 24 CHI 80 F -0.69
2 TyrusThomas 2010 23 CHI 81 F 0.23
2 KirkHinrich 2010 29 CHI 75 G 1.00
2 JanneroPargo 2010 30 CHI 73 G -2.65
2 JeromeJames 2010 34 CHI 84 C -3.31
3 JamesJohnson 2010 22 CHI 81 F -1.68
3 TajGibson 2010 24 CHI 81 F -1.68
3 LindseyHunter 2010 39 CHI 74 G -2.30
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 LeBronJames 2010 25 CLE 80 F 15.62
1 MoWilliams 2010 27 CLE 73 G 0.78
1 ShaquilleO'Neal 2010 37 CLE 85 C 1.77
1 AndersonVarejao 2010 27 CLE 82 F 0.62
1 DelonteWest 2010 26 CLE 76 G 0.51
2 AnthonyParker 2010 34 CLE 78 G 0.13
2 JamarioMoon 2010 29 CLE 80 F 1.01
2 ZydrunasIlgauskas 2010 34 CLE 87 C -0.48
2 DanielGibson 2010 23 CLE 74 G -0.84
2 J.J.Hickson 2010 21 CLE 81 F -2.44
3 LeonPowe 2010 26 CLE 80 F 0.84
3 DannyGreen 2010 22 CLE 78 G -1.68
3 DarnellJackson 2010 24 CLE 81 F -2.39
3 JawadWilliams 2010 26 CLE 81 F -1.95
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 DirkNowitzki 2010 31 DAL 84 F 3.99
1 JasonKidd 2010 36 DAL 76 G 4.07
1 ShawnMarion 2010 31 DAL 79 F 1.31
1 ErickDampier 2010 34 DAL 83 C 0.63
1 JoshHoward 2010 29 DAL 79 F 0.81
2 JasonTerry 2010 32 DAL 74 G 1.64
2 JoseBarea 2010 25 DAL 72 G -2.19
2 DrewGooden 2010 28 DAL 82 F -2.31
2 ShawneWilliams 2010 23 DAL 81 F -1.87
2 NathanJawai 2010 23 DAL 82 F -1.96
3 TimThomas 2010 32 DAL 82 F -0.84
3 QuintonRoss 2010 28 DAL 78 G -3.67
3 RodrigueBeaubois 2010 21 DAL 72 G -1.68
3 GregBuckner 2010 33 DAL 76 G -3.06
3 MattCarroll 2010 29 DAL 78 G -3.36
3 KrisHumphries 2010 24 DAL 81 F -1.27
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 ChaunceyBillups 2010 33 DEN 75 G 3.62
1 CarmeloAnthony 2010 25 DEN 80 F 2.58
1 NeneHilario 2010 27 DEN 83 F 1.77
1 KenyonMartin 2010 32 DEN 81 F -0.36
1 J.R.Smith 2010 24 DEN 78 G 2.22
2 AnthonyCarter 2010 34 DEN 73 G -1.46
2 ChrisAndersen 2010 31 DEN 82 F 1.18
2 ArronAfflalo 2010 24 DEN 77 G -2.06
2 RenaldoBalkman 2010 25 DEN 80 F 1.04
2 MalikAllen 2010 31 DEN 82 F -5.30
3 TyLawson 2010 21 DEN 71 G -1.68
3 JohanPetro 2010 24 DEN 84 C -2.93
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 TayshaunPrince 2010 29 DET 81 F -0.43
1 RodneyStuckey 2010 23 DET 77 G -0.31
1 RichardHamilton 2010 31 DET 78 G 0.21
1 CharlieVillanueva 2010 25 DET 83 F 0.78
1 KwameBrown 2010 27 DET 83 F -1.06
2 BenGordon 2010 26 DET 75 G -0.02
2 BenWallace 2010 35 DET 81 F 0.86
2 ChrisWilcox 2010 27 DET 82 F -1.84
2 AustinDaye 2010 21 DET 83 F -1.68
2 WillBynum 2010 27 DET 72 G -1.04
3 JasonMaxiell 2010 26 DET 79 F -0.98
3 DeronWashington 2010 23 DET 79 F -1.68
3 DaJuanSummers 2010 21 DET 80 F -1.68
3 JonasJerebko 2010 22 DET 82 F -1.68
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 StephenJackson 2010 31 GSW 80 F 0.26
1 AndrisBiedrins 2010 23 GSW 83 C 2.26
1 CoreyMaggette 2010 30 GSW 78 F 0.95
1 MontaEllis 2010 24 GSW 75 G -1.08
1 AnthonyRandolph 2010 20 GSW 82 F -0.76
2 KelennaAzubuike 2010 26 GSW 77 G -1.78
2 RonnyTuriaf 2010 27 GSW 82 F 0.99
2 AnthonyMorrow 2010 24 GSW 77 G -1.67
2 StephenCurry 2010 21 GSW 75 G -1.68
2 BrandanWright 2010 22 GSW 81 F -1.03
3 MikkiMoore 2010 34 GSW 83 C -2.55
3 DeveanGeorge 2010 32 GSW 80 G -3.60
3 AcieLaw 2010 25 GSW 75 G -3.44
3 SpeedyClaxton 2010 31 GSW 71 G -2.90
3 C.J.Watson 2010 25 GSW 74 G -1.06
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 LuisScola 2010 29 HOU 81 F 0.53
1 AaronBrooks 2010 25 HOU 72 G -1.25
1 TrevorAriza 2010 24 HOU 80 F 3.10
1 TracyMcGrady 2010 30 HOU 80 F 2.88
1 DavidAndersen 2010 29 HOU 83 F -1.68
2 ShaneBattier 2010 31 HOU 80 F 1.56
2 KyleLowry 2010 23 HOU 72 G 1.19
2 CarlLandry 2010 26 HOU 81 F -0.41
2 BrentBarry 2010 38 HOU 78 G -0.07
2 PopsMensah-Bonsu 2010 26 HOU 81 F -2.42
3 ChuckHayes 2010 26 HOU 78 F 0.35
3 JermaineTaylor 2010 22 HOU 76 G -1.68
3 ChaseBudinger 2010 21 HOU 79 F -1.68
3 BrianCook 2010 29 HOU 81 F -3.29
3 JamesWhite 2010 27 HOU 79 G -2.19
3 JoeyDorsey 2010 26 HOU 80 F -1.66
3 YaoMing 2010 29 HOU 90 C 2.37
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 DannyGranger 2010 26 IND 80 F 3.59
1 TroyMurphy 2010 29 IND 83 F 2.95
1 T.J.Ford 2010 26 IND 72 G -0.23
1 JeffFoster 2010 33 IND 83 F 0.74
1 DahntayJones 2010 29 IND 78 G -3.38
2 EarlWatson 2010 30 IND 73 G -2.46
2 BrandonRush 2010 24 IND 78 F -3.40
2 RoyHibbert 2010 23 IND 86 C -0.26
2 MikeDunleavyJr. 2010 29 IND 81 G 0.53
2 JoshMcRoberts 2010 22 IND 82 F -0.85
3 TylerHansbrough 2010 23 IND 81 F -1.68
3 A.J.Price 2010 22 IND 74 G -1.68
3 TravisDiener 2010 27 IND 73 G -0.32
3 SolomonJones 2010 25 IND 82 F -1.82
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 AlThornton 2010 26 LAC 80 F -3.15
1 BaronDavis 2010 30 LAC 75 G 2.49
1 EricGordon 2010 21 LAC 75 G -0.61
1 ChrisKaman 2010 27 LAC 84 C -1.98
1 BlakeGriffin 2010 20 LAC 82 F -1.68
2 RasualButler 2010 30 LAC 79 G -2.34
2 SebastianTelfair 2010 24 LAC 72 G -2.16
2 MarcusCamby 2010 35 LAC 83 F 2.26
2 CraigSmith 2010 26 LAC 79 F -1.35
2 RickyDavis 2010 30 LAC 78 G -2.53
3 MardyCollins 2010 25 LAC 78 G -3.22
3 DeAndreJordan 2010 21 LAC 83 C -1.30
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 KobeBryant 2010 31 LAL 78 G 5.85
1 PauGasol 2010 29 LAL 84 F 2.85
1 DerekFisher 2010 35 LAL 73 G -0.49
1 RonArtest 2010 30 LAL 78 F 3.10
1 AndrewBynum 2010 22 LAL 84 C 0.90
2 LamarOdom 2010 30 LAL 82 F 2.22
2 SashaVujacic 2010 25 LAL 79 G 1.15
2 JordanFarmar 2010 23 LAL 74 G -1.37
2 LukeWalton 2010 29 LAL 80 F -1.88
2 D.J.Mbenga 2010 29 LAL 84 C -1.72
3 JoshPowell 2010 27 LAL 81 F -5.25
3 AdamMorrison 2010 25 LAL 80 F -3.92
3 ShannonBrown 2010 24 LAL 76 G -2.50
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 RudyGay 2010 23 MEM 81 F -0.53
1 O.J.Mayo 2010 22 MEM 76 G -1.00
1 MikeConley 2010 22 MEM 73 G -0.28
1 MarcGasol 2010 25 MEM 85 C 1.13
1 ZachRandolph 2010 28 MEM 81 F 0.24
2 AllenIverson 2010 34 MEM 72 G 0.54
2 DarrellArthur 2010 21 MEM 81 F -1.28
2 DeMarreCarroll 2010 23 MEM 80 F -1.68
2 HasheemThabeet 2010 22 MEM 87 C -1.68
2 MarkoJaric 2010 31 MEM 79 G -1.63
3 MarcusWilliams 2010 24 MEM 75 G -2.73
3 SamYoung 2010 24 MEM 78 F -1.68
3 HamedHaddadi 2010 24 MEM 86 C -0.20
3 TreyGilder 2010 24 MEM 81 F -1.68
3 StevenHunter 2010 28 MEM 84 C -3.31
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 DwyaneWade 2010 28 MIA 76 G 9.10
1 UdonisHaslem 2010 29 MIA 80 F -3.08
1 MarioChalmers 2010 23 MIA 73 G 2.27
1 JermaineO'Neal 2010 31 MIA 83 F -1.75
1 JamesJones 2010 29 MIA 80 F -1.83
2 DaequanCook 2010 22 MIA 77 G -1.89
2 MichaelBeasley 2010 21 MIA 82 F -1.49
2 ChrisQuinn 2010 26 MIA 74 G -1.21
2 YakhoubaDiawara 2010 27 MIA 79 F -3.93
2 JamaalMagloire 2010 31 MIA 83 C -4.05
3 QuentinRichardson 2010 29 MIA 78 G -1.69
3 JoelAnthony 2010 27 MIA 81 C -2.18
3 DorellWright 2010 24 MIA 79 G -1.63
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 LukeRidnour 2010 28 MIL 74 G -0.28
1 LucMbahaMoute 2010 23 MIL 80 F -0.77
1 KurtThomas 2010 37 MIL 81 F 0.15
1 MichaelRedd 2010 30 MIL 78 G 0.89
1 AndrewBogut 2010 25 MIL 84 C 0.37
2 CharlieBell 2010 30 MIL 75 G -2.30
2 DanGadzuric 2010 31 MIL 83 C -1.66
2 BrandonJennings 2010 19 MIL 73 G -1.68
2 JoeAlexander 2010 23 MIL 80 F -2.08
2 CarlosDelfino 2010 27 MIL 78 G 0.99
3 FranciscoElson 2010 33 MIL 84 C -2.83
3 JodieMeeks 2010 22 MIL 76 G -1.68
3 RokoUkic 2010 25 MIL 77 G -3.36
3 WalterSharpe 2010 23 MIL 81 F -1.61
3 ErsanIlyasova 2010 22 MIL 81 F -0.94
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 RyanGomes 2010 27 MIN 79 F -1.81
1 RamonSessions 2010 23 MIN 75 G 1.20
1 AlJefferson 2010 25 MIN 82 F 1.59
1 KevinLove 2010 21 MIN 82 F -0.21
1 DamienWilkins 2010 30 MIN 78 F -2.82
2 JonnyFlynn 2010 20 MIN 72 G -1.68
2 WayneEllington 2010 21 MIN 76 G -1.68
2 CoreyBrewer 2010 23 MIN 81 F -1.60
2 RyanHollins 2010 25 MIN 84 C -1.61
2 OleksiyPecherov 2010 24 MIN 84 C -2.59
3 AntonioDaniels 2010 34 MIN 76 G -2.38
3 BrianCardinal 2010 32 MIN 80 F -0.53
3 ChuckyAtkins 2010 35 MIN 71 G -3.50
3 MarkBlount 2010 34 MIN 84 C -6.03
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 DevinHarris 2010 26 NJN 75 G 3.83
1 BrookLopez 2010 21 NJN 84 C -0.88
1 BobbySimmons 2010 29 NJN 79 G -1.00
1 CourtneyLee 2010 24 NJN 77 G -1.07
1 YiJianlian 2010 22 NJN 84 F -2.01
2 KeyonDooling 2010 29 NJN 75 G -1.46
2 JarvisHayes 2010 28 NJN 79 F -2.65
2 JoshBoone 2010 25 NJN 82 F -1.69
2 TonyBattie 2010 33 NJN 83 C -4.03
2 EduardoNajera 2010 33 NJN 80 F -0.78
3 RaferAlston 2010 33 NJN 74 G 1.12
3 TrentonHassell 2010 30 NJN 77 G -5.17
3 TerrenceWilliams 2010 22 NJN 78 G -1.68
3 ChrisDouglasRoberts 2010 23 NJN 79 G -3.07
3 SeanWilliams 2010 23 NJN 82 F -1.49
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 ChrisPaul 2010 24 NOH 72 G 14.14
1 DavidWest 2010 29 NOH 81 F 0.36
1 EmekaOkafor 2010 27 NOH 82 F -0.40
1 PejaStojakovic 2010 32 NOH 81 F -0.39
1 MorrisPeterson 2010 32 NOH 79 F -1.77
2 DariusSongaila 2010 31 NOH 81 F -2.63
2 JamesPosey 2010 33 NOH 80 F 0.89
2 HiltonArmstrong 2010 25 NOH 83 F -2.78
2 DevinBrown 2010 31 NOH 77 G -2.47
2 DarrenCollison 2010 22 NOH 72 G -1.68
3 BobbyBrown 2010 25 NOH 74 G -4.53
3 IkeDiogu 2010 26 NOH 80 F -2.90
3 MarcusThornton 2010 22 NOH 76 G -1.68
3 JulianWright 2010 22 NOH 80 F -1.44
3 SeanMarks 2010 34 NOH 82 F -4.95
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 ChrisDuhon 2010 27 NYK 73 G -1.34
1 WilsonChandler 2010 22 NYK 80 F -0.94
1 AlHarrington 2010 29 NYK 81 F 0.10
1 LarryHughes 2010 31 NYK 77 G -0.88
1 DarkoMilicic 2010 24 NYK 84 F -1.59
2 JaredJeffries 2010 28 NYK 83 F -2.47
2 ToneyDouglas 2010 23 NYK 73 G -1.68
2 JordanHill 2010 22 NYK 82 F -1.68
2 CuttinoMobley 2010 34 NYK 76 G -3.48
2 DaniloGallinari 2010 21 NYK 82 F -0.62
3 ChrisHunter 2010 25 NYK 83 F -1.68
3 EddyCurry 2010 27 NYK 83 C -3.83
3 JoeCrawford 2010 23 NYK 77 F -1.21
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 KevinDurant 2010 21 OKC 81 F 1.55
1 JeffGreen 2010 23 OKC 81 F -1.03
1 RussellWestbrook 2010 21 OKC 75 G -0.14
1 ThaboSefolosha 2010 25 OKC 77 G -0.40
1 NenadKrstic 2010 26 OKC 84 C -3.43
2 NickCollison 2010 29 OKC 81 F -0.05
2 JamesHarden 2010 20 OKC 77 G -1.68
2 EtanThomas 2010 31 OKC 81 F -4.26
2 ShaunLivingston 2010 24 OKC 79 G -1.50
3 KyleWeaver 2010 23 OKC 78 G -1.02
3 B.J.Mullens 2010 20 OKC 84 C -1.68
3 SergeIbaka 2010 19 OKC 82 C -1.68
3 KevinOllie 2010 37 OKC 76 G -3.33
3 D.J.White 2010 23 OKC 81 F -0.83
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 VinceCarter 2010 33 ORL 79 G 3.07
1 RashardLewis 2010 30 ORL 82 F 3.13
1 DwightHoward 2010 24 ORL 83 C 6.92
1 BrandonBass 2010 24 ORL 80 F -2.32
1 JameerNelson 2010 27 ORL 72 G 2.54
2 MattBarnes 2010 29 ORL 79 F 0.51
2 MickaelPietrus 2010 27 ORL 78 G -0.42
2 RyanAnderson 2010 21 ORL 82 F -0.20
2 MarcinGortat 2010 25 ORL 84 F -0.45
2 JasonWilliams 2010 34 ORL 73 G -0.79
3 AnthonyJohnson 2010 35 ORL 75 G -2.58
3 J.J.Redick 2010 25 ORL 76 G -2.02
3 AdonalFoyle 2010 34 ORL 82 C -3.01
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 AndreIguodala 2010 26 PHI 78 G 4.88
1 SamuelDalembert 2010 28 PHI 83 C -2.30
1 WillieGreen 2010 28 PHI 76 G -3.34
1 JrueHolliday 2010 19 PHI 75 G -1.68
1 EltonBrand 2010 30 PHI 80 F -0.86
2 ThaddeusYoung 2010 21 PHI 80 F -0.61
2 LouisWilliams 2010 23 PHI 74 G 0.83
2 JasonKapono 2010 28 PHI 80 F -4.57
2 MarreeseSpeights 2010 22 PHI 82 F -0.78
2 RoyalIvey 2010 28 PHI 75 G -2.64
3 JasonSmith 2010 23 PHI 84 F -2.21
3 PrimozBrezec 2010 30 PHI 86 C -4.29
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 JasonRichardson 2010 29 PHO 78 G 1.59
1 SteveNash 2010 35 PHO 75 G 0.81
1 GrantHill 2010 37 PHO 80 F 0.12
1 AmareStoudemire 2010 27 PHO 82 F 2.68
1 ChanningFrye 2010 26 PHO 83 F -2.66
2 LeandroBarbosa 2010 27 PHO 75 G 1.48
2 JaredDudley 2010 24 PHO 79 F -0.15
2 LouisAmundson 2010 27 PHO 81 F -1.54
2 GoranDragic 2010 23 PHO 76 G -1.88
2 RobinLopez 2010 21 PHO 84 C -1.55
3 SashaPavlovic 2010 26 PHO 80 G -2.54
3 EarlClark 2010 21 PHO 81 F -1.68
3 TaylorGriffin 2010 23 PHO 79 F -1.68
3 AlandoTucker 2010 25 PHO 78 F -3.61
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 LaMarcusAldridge 2010 24 POR 83 F 0.92
1 AndreMiller 2010 33 POR 74 G 1.63
1 BrandonRoy 2010 25 POR 78 G 5.85
1 NicolasBatum 2010 21 POR 80 F 0.73
1 GregOden 2010 22 POR 84 C 1.43
2 TravisOutlaw 2010 25 POR 81 F -0.66
2 SteveBlake 2010 29 POR 75 G 0.28
2 JoelPrzybilla 2010 30 POR 85 C -0.44
2 RudyFernandez 2010 24 POR 78 G 2.57
3 JerrydBayless 2010 21 POR 75 G -1.98
3 MartellWebster 2010 23 POR 81 G -1.00
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 BenoUdrih 2010 27 SAC 75 G -2.61
1 SpencerHawes 2010 21 SAC 84 C -1.50
1 JasonThompson 2010 23 SAC 83 F -1.69
1 FranciscoGarcia 2010 28 SAC 79 F 0.01
1 KevinMartin 2010 26 SAC 79 G 2.21
2 AndresNocioni 2010 30 SAC 79 F -0.95
2 SergioRodriguez 2010 23 SAC 75 G -0.83
2 TyrekeEvans 2010 19 SAC 78 G -1.68
2 DonteGreene 2010 21 SAC 83 F -3.00
3 OmriCasspi 2010 21 SAC 81 F -1.68
3 SeanMay 2010 25 SAC 81 F -3.58
3 KennyThomas 2010 32 SAC 79 F -3.71
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 RichardJefferson 2010 29 SAS 79 F 0.01
1 TimDuncan 2010 33 SAS 83 F 5.03
1 TonyParker 2010 27 SAS 74 G 1.58
1 AntonioMcDyess 2010 35 SAS 81 F 0.53
1.5 ManuGinobili 2010 32 SAS 78 G 7.09
1.5 RogerMason 2010 29 SAS 77 G -1.54
2 MichaelFinley 2010 36 SAS 79 G -2.59
2 MattBonner 2010 29 SAS 82 F 1.28
2 GeorgeHill 2010 23 SAS 74 G -0.57
2 TheoRatliff 2010 36 SAS 82 C -0.42
3 DeJuanBlair 2010 20 SAS 79 F -1.68
3 MalikHairston 2010 22 SAS 78 G -1.27
3 MarcusWilliams(II) 2010 23 SAS 79 F -1.34
3 IanMahinmi 2010 23 SAS 83 C -0.98
3 MarcusHaislip 2010 29 SAS 82 F -1.98
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 ChrisBosh 2010 25 TOR 82 F 4.42
1 HedoTurkoglu 2010 30 TOR 82 F 2.24
1 AndreaBargnani 2010 24 TOR 84 F -0.94
1 JoseCalderon 2010 28 TOR 75 G 2.52
1 MarcoBelinelli 2010 23 TOR 77 G -2.31
2 JarrettJack 2010 26 TOR 75 G -1.24
2 AntoineWright 2010 25 TOR 79 G -2.43
2 RashoNesterovic 2010 33 TOR 84 C -2.09
2 AmirJohnson 2010 22 TOR 81 F 1.11
2 DemarDeRozan 2010 20 TOR 79 F -1.68
3 ReggieEvans 2010 29 TOR 80 F -1.18
3 QuincyDouby 2010 25 TOR 75 G -3.47
3 MarcusBanks 2010 28 TOR 74 G -2.30
3 PatrickO'Bryant 2010 23 TOR 84 C -1.35
3 SonnyWeems 2010 23 TOR 78 G -2.61
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 RonnieBrewer 2010 24 UTA 79 G 1.23
1 DeronWilliams 2010 25 UTA 75 G 2.30
1 MehmetOkur 2010 30 UTA 83 F 1.54
1 AndreiKirilenko 2010 28 UTA 81 F 2.60
1 CarlosBoozer 2010 28 UTA 81 F 2.00
2 PaulMillsap 2010 24 UTA 80 F 3.06
2 KyleKorver 2010 28 UTA 79 F -0.48
2 C.J.Miles 2010 22 UTA 78 G -0.98
2 RonniePrice 2010 26 UTA 74 G -2.09
2 KostaKoufos 2010 20 UTA 84 C -0.99
3 MattHarpring 2010 33 UTA 79 F -2.55
3 KyryloFesenko 2010 23 UTA 85 C -0.77
3 EricMaynor 2010 22 UTA 75 G -1.68
Tier Player Year Ag Tm Ht Pos SPM
1 AntawnJamison 2010 33 WAS 80 F 2.18
1 CaronButler 2010 29 WAS 79 F 2.27
1 MikeMiller 2010 29 WAS 80 F 0.84
1 BrendanHaywood 2010 30 WAS 84 C -1.03
1 GilbertArenas 2010 28 WAS 75 G 4.31
2 RandyFoye 2010 26 WAS 76 G -0.59
2 DominicMcGuire 2010 24 WAS 81 F -1.24
2 NickYoung 2010 24 WAS 78 G -3.69
2 AndrayBlatche 2010 23 WAS 83 F -0.91
2 JaValeMcGee 2010 22 WAS 84 C -1.34
3 MikeJames 2010 34 WAS 74 G -4.45
3 JavarisCrittenton 2010 22 WAS 77 G -2.20
3 DeShawnStevenson 2010 28 WAS 77 G -2.41
3 FabricioOberto 2010 34 WAS 82 F -0.48

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11 Responses to “Early SPM-Projected 2009-10 Standings, Part II”

  1. Jason J Says:

    Manu projects to score a higher SPM than Timmy and Tony combined. Also it looks like Milsap should be getting more minutes than Boozer.

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    I actually don't see any problem with the first statement -- that team got drastically worse when he was injured, despite TP and TD's continued presence. And Boozer is coming off an injury-riddled down year while Millsap broke out and is only 24, so he should only be better this season. PER even rated Millsap > Boozer last year, so it's not really all that inconceivable to say that until Boozer proves he's 100% back to his old form, Millsap deserves the benefit of the doubt.

  3. Jared Ras Says:

    Where's Hakim Warrick? It looks like some players are missing from ESPN's page.

  4. Neil Paine Says:

    Yeah, they seem to have some weirdness with the Bucks in particular... They also continue to list Amir Johnson on the depth chart (while simultaneously having him on Toronto as well).

  5. Jason J Says:

    I wasn't disagreeing necessarily, just thought it was interesting how highly SPM valued Manu and Millsap. I do think considering Manu more valuable than Duncan and Parker combined is a real stretch.

  6. Neil Paine Says:

    The APBRMetric community has been saying this for years, but I'll reiterate: when Manu is healthy, he actually is as productive/valuable as the general population thinks Kobe Bryant is.

  7. Jason J Says:

    I'm, but I still don't think he's worth more than Tim and Tony combined. Maybe I'm wrong, but those two players constitute the key to the team d and rebounding, and their most prolific scorer. Not to take anything away from Manu. Maybe I overvalue the greatest PF of all time as he declines in his 30s and Eva's hubby as he continues to have those eyebrows.

  8. Mike G Says:

    Neil may corroborate, but I don't think you can say SPM is "considering Manu more valuable than Duncan and Parker combined ". An SPM (or any +/-) of zero is not a worthless player, it's an average player.

    This blog sometimes rates players with SPM and sometimes by Win Shares. They give different results. Is there any attempt in the works to fuse the two? Have you guys got an idea of where they most differ?

  9. Neil Paine Says:

    Yes, that's true, Mike. An average player is still above the replacement level and therefore has positive value to a team in the salary-cap era. If the replacement level is -4, then Duncan adds 9 points above that per 100 poss., Parker adds 5.5, and Manu adds 11.

    As far as Win Shares go, that's actually next on the to-do list, a similar projection for the 2010 season using past WS results. I just need to build the projection model. It should be interesting to see where they agree and disagree, though.

  10. Mike G Says:

    David Lee isn't figured into the Knicks' projection. May have something to do with their last-place 23 wins expected?

  11. Neil Paine Says:

    Yes, no Lee and no NateRob makes the Knicks a really bad team.