Posted by Neil Paine on September 18, 2009
Recently, we've been focused on projecting various "meta-stats" for the upcoming 2009-2010 NBA season, starting with Statistical +/- and now moving to Win Shares, with the goal of predicting how each team will finish based on their current rosters. Rate stats are, of course, relatively easy to project for basketball players because they don't fluctuate a ridiculous amount from season to season -- they are generally a function of the player's ability level, with teammates, coaches, and other external factors playing a role as well. Playing time, however, is always difficult to project because much of it stems from factors outside the player's control, like injuries, coaching decisions, trades, etc.
So, while I continue to work on an acceptable method to project minutes, I thought I'd tide you over on a Friday afternoon with the projected Win Share rates I've been working on. It uses a framework similar to the SPS, with the added wrinkle of draft position being accounted for with inexperienced players. Here are the projected top 10 in WS/minute for 2010:
You can also download the entire spreadsheet (including every 2010 rookie and every player who played in the NBA from 2007-2009) here. Insert your own playing time figures, make sure the team totals equal 19,822 minutes, and see how many games you can make your favorite team win.