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2010 Projected Win Share Rates

Posted by Neil Paine on September 18, 2009

Recently, we've been focused on projecting various "meta-stats" for the upcoming 2009-2010 NBA season, starting with Statistical +/- and now moving to Win Shares, with the goal of predicting how each team will finish based on their current rosters. Rate stats are, of course, relatively easy to project for basketball players because they don't fluctuate a ridiculous amount from season to season -- they are generally a function of the player's ability level, with teammates, coaches, and other external factors playing a role as well. Playing time, however, is always difficult to project because much of it stems from factors outside the player's control, like injuries, coaching decisions, trades, etc.

So, while I continue to work on an acceptable method to project minutes, I thought I'd tide you over on a Friday afternoon with the projected Win Share rates I've been working on. It uses a framework similar to the SPS, with the added wrinkle of draft position being accounted for with inexperienced players. Here are the projected top 10 in WS/minute for 2010:

Player DP# Ag Team Pos prjWS/mp
Chris Paul 4 24 NOH G 0.0058
LeBron James 1 25 CLE F 0.0055
Dwight Howard 1 24 ORL C-F 0.0046
Andrew Bynum 10 22 LAL C 0.0042
Amare Stoudemire 9 27 PHO F-C 0.0041
Kobe Bryant 13 31 LAL G 0.0039
Andris Biedrins 11 23 GSW C 0.0039
Dirk Nowitzki 9 31 DAL F 0.0039
Manu Ginobili 57 32 SAS G 0.0039
Chris Bosh 4 25 TOR F-C 0.0038
Pau Gasol 3 29 LAL F 0.0038
Chauncey Billups 3 33 DEN G 0.0037
Kevin Garnett 5 33 BOS F 0.0037
Yao Ming 1 29 HOU C 0.0037
Tim Duncan 1 33 SAS F-C 0.0036
Leon Powe 49 26 CLE F 0.0036
Paul Millsap 47 24 UTA F 0.0036
Brandon Roy 6 25 POR G 0.0036
Rajon Rondo 21 23 BOS G 0.0035
Dwyane Wade 5 28 MIA G 0.0035
Amir Johnson 56 22 TOR F 0.0035
Deron Williams 3 25 UTA G 0.0034
David Lee 30 26 NYK F 0.0034
Ronnie Brewer 14 24 UTA G-F 0.0033
Kevin Martin 26 26 SAC G 0.0033
Steve Nash 15 35 PHO G 0.0033
Jose Calderon 61 28 TOR G 0.0033
Trevor Ariza 43 24 HOU F 0.0033
Paul Pierce 10 32 BOS F 0.0032
Nene Hilario 7 27 DEN F-C 0.0032
Tony Parker 28 27 SAS G 0.0031
Carlos Boozer 34 28 UTA F-C 0.0031
Ray Allen 5 34 BOS G 0.0031
Rashard Lewis 32 30 ORL F 0.0030
J.R. Smith 18 24 DEN G 0.0030
Carmelo Anthony 3 25 DEN F 0.0030
LaMarcus Aldridge 2 24 POR F 0.0030
Troy Murphy 14 29 IND F 0.0029
Danny Granger 17 26 IND F 0.0029
Devin Harris 5 26 NJN G 0.0029

You can also download the entire spreadsheet (including every 2010 rookie and every player who played in the NBA from 2007-2009) here. Insert your own playing time figures, make sure the team totals equal 19,822 minutes, and see how many games you can make your favorite team win.


3 Responses to “2010 Projected Win Share Rates”

  1. Kevin Says:

    Is there anyway we can get WS/min or WS/3k as a stat added to the B-R database? I've grown weary of having to do the math on my own every time I want to compare the WS rates of players that have played differing levels of minutes. It would be huge to have this easily available, and I imagine it wouldn't be horribly difficult to accomplish.

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    I'll file it under suggestions and we'll see what we can do. :)

  3. Jason J Says:

    I second that request! That would be a time-saver for sure.

    Would love to have SPM available as well, though that seems like asking a lot ;-)

    Oh, and this appears to be a top 40 rather than a top 10 -

    "It uses a framework similar to the SPS, with the added wrinkle of draft position being accounted for with inexperienced players. Here are the projected top 10 in WS/minute for 2010:"