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Early Win Shares-Projected 2009-10 Standings

Posted by Neil Paine on September 21, 2009

So, after a long week of programming, here's the first pass at a Win Shares-based projection system... The calculation is structured the same as the Simple Projection System, except that this method is used. Playing time was estimated based on Ed Kupfer's formula for game missed due to injury, a minutes per game formula (MPG = 10.16 + (0.557*MPG_Y-1)+(0.029*MPG_Y-2)), and total team minutes were forced to reconcile to 60% for starters, 30% for 2nd-stringers, and 10% for benchwarmers (HoopsHype's depth charts were used for the designations). And a final note, remember that these projections will be unrealistically close to the mean for players, teams, and playing time numbers, because of the heavy degree of regression being used. Anyway, here are the results:

Team Conf Wins
CLE E 50.3
BOS E 49.5
ORL E 49.0
TOR E 43.4
IND E 40.3
CHI E 39.1
DET E 39.0
PHI E 38.7
ATL E 38.0
NYK E 37.0
CHA E 36.5
WAS E 36.3
NJN E 36.2
MIA E 35.9
MIL E 33.6
Team Conf Wins
LAL W 51.5
UTA W 51.3
SAS W 47.2
DAL W 47.1
NOH W 46.6
DEN W 45.8
PHO W 45.8
POR W 44.6
HOU W 42.7
GSW W 42.1
MIN W 34.5
OKC W 33.2
SAC W 33.0
MEM W 32.1
LAC W 29.7
1230.0
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Al Horford 3 23 ATL C 2281 5.5
Joe Johnson 10 28 ATL G 2629 5.3
Josh Smith 17 24 ATL F 2368 5.0
Marvin Williams 2 23 ATL F 2286 5.5
Mike Bibby 2 31 ATL G 2328 4.1
Jamal Crawford 8 29 ATL G 1969 2.8
Jeff Teague 19 21 ATL G 334 0.6
Joe Smith 1 34 ATL F 1149 2.2
Maurice Evans 61 31 ATL G 1344 2.6
Zaza Pachulia 42 25 ATL C 1151 2.5
Mario West 61 25 ATL G 563 0.8
Randolph Morris 61 24 ATL C 516 0.7
Jason Collins 18 31 ATL C 903 0.5
Total ATL 19822 38.0
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Kendrick Perkins 27 25 BOS C 2213 5.3
Kevin Garnett 5 33 BOS F 2167 7.5
Paul Pierce 10 32 BOS F 2601 7.9
Rajon Rondo 21 23 BOS G 2387 7.9
Ray Allen 5 34 BOS G 2526 7.3
Brian Scalabrine 34 31 BOS F 732 1.0
Eddie House 37 31 BOS G 1008 2.3
Glen Davis 35 24 BOS F 1123 2.2
Marquis Daniels 61 29 BOS G-F 1502 1.4
Rasheed Wallace 4 35 BOS F-C 1582 3.4
Bill Walker 47 22 BOS F 389 0.6
J.R. Giddens 30 24 BOS G 166 0.2
Shelden Williams 5 26 BOS F 555 0.8
Tony Allen 25 28 BOS G 872 1.6
Total BOS 19822 49.5
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Boris Diaw 21 27 CHA F-C 2397 3.8
Gerald Wallace 25 27 CHA F 2462 6.3
Raja Bell 61 33 CHA G 2338 3.7
Raymond Felton 5 25 CHA G 2571 3.3
Tyson Chandler 2 27 CHA C 2125 5.7
D.J. Augustin 9 22 CHA G 1758 3.5
Derrick Brown 40 22 CHA F 647 1.0
DeSagana Diop 8 28 CHA C 1347 2.5
Gerald Henderson 12 21 CHA G 647 1.2
Vladimir Radmanovic 12 29 CHA F 1548 2.4
Alexis Ajinca 20 21 CHA C 233 0.4
Andre Brown 61 28 CHA F 410 0.6
Cartier Martin 61 25 CHA F 313 0.4
Dwayne Jones 61 26 CHA F-C 346 0.7
Nazr Mohammed 29 32 CHA C 362 0.6
Sean Singletary 42 24 CHA G 318 0.4
Total CHA 19822 36.5
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Brad Miller 61 33 CHI C 2278 4.6
Derrick Rose 1 21 CHI G 2475 4.8
John Salmons 26 30 CHI G 2659 4.3
Luol Deng 7 24 CHI F 2284 6.2
Tyrus Thomas 4 23 CHI F 2196 5.2
Aaron Gray 49 25 CHI C 1318 1.9
Jannero Pargo 61 30 CHI G 812 0.8
Joakim Noah 9 24 CHI C 1924 4.6
Kirk Hinrich 7 29 CHI G 1893 4.0
DeMarcus Nelson 61 24 CHI G 670 0.8
James Johnson 16 22 CHI F 190 0.3
Jerome James 36 34 CHI C 377 0.5
Lindsey Hunter 10 39 CHI G 554 0.7
Taj Gibson 26 24 CHI F 190 0.3
Total CHI 19822 39.1
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Anderson Varejao 30 27 CLE F 2178 5.7
Delonte West 24 26 CLE G 2312 4.6
LeBron James 1 25 CLE F 2655 13.8
Mo Williams 47 27 CLE G 2510 5.5
Shaquille O'Neal 1 37 CLE C 2239 5.0
Anthony Parker 21 34 CLE G 1586 2.7
Daniel Gibson 42 23 CLE G 1181 2.8
J.J. Hickson 19 21 CLE F 601 1.1
Jamario Moon 61 29 CLE F 1273 2.2
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 20 34 CLE C 1306 3.1
Danny Green 46 22 CLE G 222 0.3
Darnell Jackson 52 24 CLE F 532 0.7
Jawad Williams 61 26 CLE F 295 0.3
Leon Powe 49 26 CLE F 492 1.7
Tarence Kinsey 61 25 CLE G 441 0.7
Total CLE 19822 50.3
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Dirk Nowitzki 9 31 DAL F 2651 9.7
Erick Dampier 10 34 DAL C 1990 5.3
Jason Kidd 2 36 DAL G 2574 5.6
Jason Terry 10 32 DAL G 2442 6.6
Josh Howard 29 29 DAL F-G 2236 5.4
Drew Gooden 4 28 DAL F 1318 2.5
Jose Barea 61 25 DAL G 1130 1.7
Kris Humphries 14 24 DAL F 664 1.5
Quinton Ross 61 28 DAL G 1024 1.1
Shawn Marion 9 31 DAL F 1811 4.7
James Singleton 61 28 DAL F 459 0.7
Matt Carroll 61 29 DAL G 381 0.6
Nathan Jawai 41 23 DAL F 14 0.0
Rodrigue Beaubois 25 21 DAL G 14 -0.0
Shawne Williams 17 23 DAL F 389 0.7
Tim Thomas 7 32 DAL F 725 0.9
Total DAL 19822 47.1
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Carmelo Anthony 3 25 DEN F 2501 7.0
Chauncey Billups 3 33 DEN G 2615 9.1
J.R. Smith 18 24 DEN G 2053 5.8
Kenyon Martin 1 32 DEN F 2371 4.4
Nene Hilario 7 27 DEN F-C 2353 7.0
Anthony Carter 61 34 DEN G 1479 2.0
Arron Afflalo 27 24 DEN G 1183 1.9
Chris Andersen 61 31 DEN F 1287 2.3
Malik Allen 61 31 DEN F 943 1.1
Renaldo Balkman 20 25 DEN F 1057 2.5
Johan Petro 25 24 DEN C 1257 1.4
Ty Lawson 18 21 DEN G 725 1.3
Total DEN 19822 45.8
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Ben Gordon 3 26 DET G 2718 6.6
Charlie Villanueva 7 25 DET F 2278 4.3
Kwame Brown 1 27 DET F 1686 2.6
Rodney Stuckey 15 23 DET G 2433 4.2
Tayshaun Prince 23 29 DET F 2778 5.8
Austin Daye 15 21 DET F 464 0.8
Chris Wilcox 8 27 DET F 1217 2.1
Jason Maxiell 26 26 DET F 1306 3.4
Richard Hamilton 7 31 DET G-F 1944 4.2
Will Bynum 61 27 DET G 1017 1.2
Ben Wallace 61 35 DET F-C 1227 2.5
DaJuan Summers 35 21 DET F 252 0.4
Deron Washington 59 23 DET F 252 0.3
Jonas Jerebko 39 22 DET F 252 0.4
Total DET 19822 39.0
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Andris Biedrins 11 23 GSW C 2586 9.5
Corey Maggette 13 30 GSW F 2545 5.9
Monta Ellis 40 24 GSW G 2656 6.1
Stephen Curry 7 21 GSW G 1144 2.1
Stephen Jackson 42 31 GSW F 2962 4.0
Anthony Randolph 14 20 GSW F 954 1.8
Brandan Wright 8 22 GSW F 931 2.0
C.J. Watson 61 25 GSW G 1258 1.9
Kelenna Azubuike 61 26 GSW G 1623 3.1
Ronny Turiaf 37 27 GSW F 1181 2.7
Acie Law 11 25 GSW G 191 0.3
Anthony Morrow 61 24 GSW G 639 0.9
Devean George 23 32 GSW G-F 451 0.5
Jermareo Davidson 36 25 GSW F 138 0.2
Mikki Moore 61 34 GSW C 458 0.8
Speedy Claxton 20 31 GSW G 106 0.1
Total GSW 19822 42.1
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Aaron Brooks 26 25 HOU G 2692 4.5
David Andersen 37 29 HOU F 1369 1.6
Luis Scola 55 29 HOU F 3070 6.5
Tracy McGrady 9 30 HOU F 2114 4.8
Trevor Ariza 43 24 HOU F 2648 8.1
Carl Landry 31 26 HOU F 1287 3.0
Chuck Hayes 61 26 HOU F 954 2.5
Joey Dorsey 33 26 HOU F 472 0.6
Kyle Lowry 24 23 HOU G 1385 3.1
Shane Battier 6 31 HOU F 1849 4.4
Brent Barry 15 38 HOU G 679 1.6
Brian Cook 24 29 HOU F 311 0.4
Chase Budinger 44 21 HOU F 83 0.1
James White 31 27 HOU G-F 184 0.2
Jermaine Taylor 32 22 HOU G 83 0.1
Pops Mensah-Bonsu 61 26 HOU F 553 0.7
Yao Ming 1 29 HOU C 89 0.3
Total HOU 19822 42.7
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Dahntay Jones 20 29 IND G 1882 2.3
Danny Granger 17 26 IND F 2709 7.4
Jeff Foster 21 33 IND F-C 2251 5.4
T.J. Ford 8 26 IND G 2420 5.0
Troy Murphy 14 29 IND F 2631 7.3
Earl Watson 39 30 IND G 1787 1.5
Luther Head 24 27 IND G 1238 2.5
Mike Dunleavy 3 29 IND F-G 1121 2.4
Roy Hibbert 17 23 IND C 1207 2.1
Tyler Hansbrough 13 23 IND F 593 1.0
A.J. Price 52 22 IND G 15 0.0
Brandon Rush 13 24 IND F 869 1.2
Josh McRoberts 37 22 IND F 262 0.5
Solomon Jones 33 25 IND F 357 0.8
Travis Diener 38 27 IND G 480 1.0
Total IND 19822 40.3
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Al Thornton 14 26 LAC F 2941 2.8
Baron Davis 3 30 LAC G 2812 5.1
Blake Griffin 1 20 LAC F 1124 2.2
Chris Kaman 6 27 LAC C 2332 3.1
Eric Gordon 7 21 LAC G 2683 5.2
DeAndre Jordan 35 21 LAC C 693 1.2
Marcus Camby 2 35 LAC C-F 1440 3.7
Rasual Butler 52 30 LAC G-F 1453 2.0
Ricky Davis 21 30 LAC G 1043 1.0
Sebastian Telfair 13 24 LAC G 1318 0.9
Brian Skinner 22 33 LAC F 217 0.2
Craig Smith 36 26 LAC F 296 0.6
Fred Jones 14 30 LAC G-F 714 0.8
Mardy Collins 29 25 LAC G 320 0.1
Mike Taylor 55 24 LAC G 164 0.2
Paul Davis 34 25 LAC C 92 0.1
Steve Novak 32 26 LAC F 178 0.4
Total LAC 19822 29.7
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Andrew Bynum 10 22 LAL C 2015 8.0
Derek Fisher 24 35 LAL G 2330 4.7
Kobe Bryant 13 31 LAL G 2625 9.7
Lamar Odom 4 30 LAL F 2315 6.0
Pau Gasol 3 29 LAL F 2608 9.2
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga 61 29 LAL C 707 1.2
Jordan Farmar 26 23 LAL G 1208 2.2
Josh Powell 61 27 LAL F 917 1.1
Luke Walton 32 29 LAL F 1191 2.1
Ron Artest 16 30 LAL F 1924 4.0
Adam Morrison 3 25 LAL F 651 0.6
Sasha Vujacic 27 25 LAL G 798 2.1
Shannon Brown 25 24 LAL G 533 0.7
Total LAL 19822 51.5
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Marc Gasol 48 25 MEM C 2190 3.5
Mike Conley 4 22 MEM G 2273 4.2
O.J. Mayo 3 22 MEM G 2487 4.1
Rudy Gay 8 23 MEM F 2627 3.9
Zach Randolph 19 28 MEM F 2316 3.8
Allen Iverson 1 34 MEM G 2457 5.3
DeMarre Carroll 27 23 MEM F 806 1.2
Hasheem Thabeet 2 22 MEM C 806 1.4
Marcus Williams 22 24 MEM G 1071 0.8
Sam Young 36 24 MEM F 806 1.1
Darius Miles 3 28 MEM F 362 0.5
Darrell Arthur 27 21 MEM F 751 1.3
Hamed Haddadi 61 24 MEM C 272 0.4
Marko Jaric 30 31 MEM G 502 0.5
Steven Hunter 15 28 MEM C 54 0.1
Trey Gilder 61 24 MEM F 42 0.1
Total MEM 19822 32.1
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Dwyane Wade 5 28 MIA G 2722 9.0
Jermaine O'Neal 17 31 MIA F-C 2251 3.0
Mario Chalmers 34 23 MIA G 2358 4.0
Michael Beasley 2 21 MIA F 2057 4.0
Udonis Haslem 61 29 MIA F 2505 4.4
Chris Quinn 61 26 MIA G 1431 2.7
Daequan Cook 21 22 MIA G 1869 2.5
Jamaal Magloire 19 31 MIA C 1269 1.3
James Jones 49 29 MIA F 1377 2.5
Dorell Wright 19 24 MIA G-F 343 0.6
Joel Anthony 61 27 MIA C 454 0.6
Quentin Richardson 18 29 MIA G 863 1.0
Yakhouba Diawara 61 27 MIA F 322 0.3
Total MIA 19822 35.9
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Andrew Bogut 1 25 MIL C 2582 5.2
Ersan Ilyasova 36 22 MIL F 1247 1.9
Hakim Warrick 19 27 MIL F 2642 5.0
Luke Ridnour 14 28 MIL G 2656 3.5
Michael Redd 43 30 MIL G 2766 6.1
Brandon Jennings 10 19 MIL G 524 1.0
Charlie Bell 61 30 MIL G 1656 2.0
Dan Gadzuric 33 31 MIL C 1138 1.5
Joe Alexander 8 23 MIL F 1012 1.6
Luc Mbah a Moute 37 23 MIL F 1617 2.7
Carlos Delfino 25 27 MIL G 11 0.0
Eddie Gill 61 31 MIL G 243 0.3
Francisco Elson 41 33 MIL C 601 0.8
Jodie Meeks 41 22 MIL G 11 0.0
Kurt Thomas 10 37 MIL F 659 1.4
Roko Ukic 41 25 MIL G 405 0.5
Walter Sharpe 32 23 MIL F 74 0.1
Total MIL 19822 33.6
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Al Jefferson 15 25 MIN F 2670 7.2
Corey Brewer 7 23 MIN F 1925 2.4
Kevin Love 5 21 MIN F 2233 4.8
Ramon Sessions 56 23 MIN G 2366 4.8
Ryan Gomes 50 27 MIN F 2699 4.0
Brian Cardinal 44 32 MIN F 1323 1.6
Damien Wilkins 61 30 MIN F 1371 1.3
Jonny Flynn 6 20 MIN G 694 1.3
Ryan Hollins 50 25 MIN C 1118 2.3
Sasha Pavlovic 19 26 MIN G-F 1441 2.0
Antonio Daniels 4 34 MIN G 585 1.0
Chucky Atkins 61 35 MIN G 537 0.8
Mark Blount 54 34 MIN C 452 0.4
Oleksiy Pecherov 18 24 MIN C 371 0.6
Wayne Ellington 28 21 MIN G 38 0.1
Total MIN 19822 34.5
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Brook Lopez 10 21 NJN C 2622 5.5
Courtney Lee 22 24 NJN G 2369 4.1
Devin Harris 5 26 NJN G 2897 7.9
Sean Williams 17 23 NJN F 1692 3.0
Yi Jianlian 6 22 NJN F 2311 3.1
Bobby Simmons 41 29 NJN G-F 1484 1.8
Josh Boone 23 25 NJN F-C 1133 2.4
Rafer Alston 39 33 NJN G 1841 3.3
Terrence Williams 11 22 NJN G 422 0.7
Tony Battie 5 33 NJN C-F 1067 1.6
Chris Douglas-Roberts 40 23 NJN G 171 0.3
Eduardo Najera 38 33 NJN F 136 0.3
Jarvis Hayes 10 28 NJN F 566 0.8
Keyon Dooling 10 29 NJN G 664 1.2
Maurice Ager 28 25 NJN G 6 0.0
Trenton Hassell 29 30 NJN G 439 0.4
Total NJN 19822 36.2
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Chris Paul 4 24 NOH G 2573 14.0
David West 18 29 NOH F 2583 6.1
Emeka Okafor 2 27 NOH C-F 2352 5.7
James Posey 18 33 NOH F-G 2099 4.5
Peja Stojakovic 14 32 NOH F-G 2285 4.6
Darius Songaila 49 31 NOH F 1550 2.1
Darren Collison 21 22 NOH G 601 1.0
Devin Brown 61 31 NOH G 1265 1.6
Hilton Armstrong 12 25 NOH F-C 1319 2.0
Julian Wright 13 22 NOH F 1212 2.2
Anthony Tolliver 61 24 NOH C 373 0.5
Bobby Brown 61 25 NOH G 451 0.5
Ike Diogu 9 26 NOH F 250 0.6
Marcus Thornton 43 22 NOH G 13 0.0
Morris Peterson 21 32 NOH F 441 0.7
Sean Marks 44 34 NOH F-C 482 0.7
Total NOH 19822 46.6
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Chris Duhon 38 27 NYK G 2790 4.7
David Lee 30 26 NYK F 2783 8.8
Eddy Curry 4 27 NYK C 1247 1.8
Nate Robinson 21 25 NYK G 2491 5.9
Wilson Chandler 23 22 NYK F 2582 4.1
Al Harrington 25 29 NYK F 1927 3.4
Danilo Gallinari 6 21 NYK F 941 1.8
Darko Milicic 2 24 NYK F-C 1143 1.6
Larry Hughes 8 31 NYK G 1532 1.9
Toney Douglas 29 23 NYK G 404 0.6
Chris Hunter 61 25 NYK F 60 0.1
Gabe Pruitt 32 23 NYK G 350 0.6
Jared Jeffries 11 28 NYK F 973 0.9
Joe Crawford 58 23 NYK F 480 0.7
Jordan Hill 8 22 NYK F 60 0.1
Sun Yue 40 24 NYK G 60 0.1
Total NYK 19822 37.0
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
James Harden 3 20 OKC G 1117 2.1
Jeff Green 5 23 OKC F 2971 4.2
Kevin Durant 2 21 OKC F 3043 6.9
Nenad Krstic 24 26 OKC C 2129 3.0
Russell Westbrook 4 21 OKC G 2633 4.3
Etan Thomas 12 31 OKC F 817 1.1
Kyle Weaver 38 23 OKC G 1189 1.7
Nick Collison 12 29 OKC F 1522 3.1
Shaun Livingston 4 24 OKC G 1090 1.8
Thabo Sefolosha 13 25 OKC G 1329 2.0
B.J. Mullens 24 20 OKC C 118 0.2
D.J. White 29 23 OKC F 796 1.3
Kevin Ollie 61 37 OKC G 759 0.9
Serge Ibaka 24 19 OKC C 118 0.2
Steven Hill 61 24 OKC C 191 0.3
Total OKC 19822 33.2
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Dwight Howard 1 24 ORL C-F 2672 11.6
Jameer Nelson 20 27 ORL G 2194 5.8
Mickael Pietrus 11 27 ORL G-F 1987 4.0
Rashard Lewis 32 30 ORL F 2328 6.6
Vince Carter 5 33 ORL G-F 2712 6.3
Anthony Johnson 39 35 ORL G 1201 1.6
Brandon Bass 33 24 ORL F 1244 3.3
J.J. Redick 11 25 ORL G 1072 2.3
Marcin Gortat 57 25 ORL F 882 1.7
Matt Barnes 45 29 ORL F 1547 2.5
Adonal Foyle 8 34 ORL C 242 0.4
Jason Williams 7 34 ORL G 53 0.1
Jeremy Richardson 61 25 ORL G-F 309 0.4
Linton Johnson 61 29 ORL F 233 0.4
Morris Almond 25 24 ORL G 398 0.6
Ryan Anderson 21 21 ORL F 746 1.4
Total ORL 19822 49.0
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Andre Iguodala 9 26 PHI G-F 2874 7.6
Elton Brand 1 30 PHI F 2125 4.8
Louis Williams 45 23 PHI G 2141 4.8
Samuel Dalembert 26 28 PHI C 2222 4.6
Thaddeus Young 12 21 PHI F 2531 6.1
Jason Kapono 31 28 PHI F 1694 2.0
Jason Smith 20 23 PHI F 653 1.0
Jrue Holliday 17 19 PHI G 602 1.1
Marreese Speights 16 22 PHI F 1307 2.6
Willie Green 41 28 PHI G 1691 1.5
Primoz Brezec 27 30 PHI C 257 0.3
Rodney Carney 16 25 PHI F 973 1.5
Royal Ivey 37 28 PHI G 751 0.7
Total PHI 19822 38.7
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Amare Stoudemire 9 27 PHO F-C 2636 10.2
Grant Hill 3 37 PHO F 2530 5.1
Jason Richardson 5 29 PHO G 2585 5.4
Robin Lopez 15 21 PHO C 1474 2.7
Steve Nash 15 35 PHO G 2667 8.2
Alando Tucker 29 25 PHO F 981 1.4
Earl Clark 14 21 PHO F 623 1.1
Goran Dragic 45 23 PHO G 1154 1.6
Jared Dudley 22 24 PHO F 1422 2.7
Leandro Barbosa 28 27 PHO G 1768 4.5
Channing Frye 8 26 PHO F-C 590 0.8
Dee Brown 46 25 PHO G 627 0.8
Louis Amundson 61 27 PHO F 639 1.1
Taylor Griffin 48 23 PHO F 126 0.2
Total PHO 19822 45.8
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Andre Miller 8 33 POR G 2752 6.1
Brandon Roy 6 25 POR G 2742 9.2
Greg Oden 1 22 POR C 1836 3.9
LaMarcus Aldridge 2 24 POR F 2757 7.7
Nicolas Batum 25 21 POR F 1806 3.5
Joel Przybilla 9 30 POR C 1207 2.6
Juwan Howard 5 36 POR F 629 1.0
Rudy Fernandez 24 24 POR G 1200 2.2
Steve Blake 38 29 POR G 1530 2.5
Travis Outlaw 23 25 POR F 1381 2.6
Dante Cunningham 33 22 POR F 418 0.7
Jerryd Bayless 11 21 POR G 893 1.5
Martell Webster 6 23 POR G-F 671 1.1
Total POR 19822 44.6
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Andres Nocioni 61 30 SAC F 2612 4.3
Jason Thompson 12 23 SAC F 2549 4.1
Kevin Martin 26 26 SAC G 2847 8.8
Spencer Hawes 10 21 SAC C 2691 3.6
Tyreke Evans 4 19 SAC G 1195 2.4
Beno Udrih 28 27 SAC G 1826 1.8
Donte Greene 28 21 SAC F 971 1.4
Francisco Garcia 23 28 SAC F-G 1777 2.8
Jon Brockman 38 22 SAC F 458 0.7
Sean May 13 25 SAC F 915 1.4
Cedric Simmons 15 24 SAC F 71 0.1
Desmond Mason 17 32 SAC F 944 0.5
Kenny Thomas 22 32 SAC F 196 0.2
Omri Casspi 23 21 SAC F 7 0.0
Sergio Rodriguez 27 23 SAC G 402 0.6
Will Solomon 32 31 SAC G 363 0.4
Total SAC 19822 33.0
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Antonio McDyess 2 35 SAS F-C 2258 5.3
Manu Ginobili 57 32 SAS G 2019 7.3
Richard Jefferson 13 29 SAS F 2654 5.3
Tim Duncan 1 33 SAS F-C 2493 8.4
Tony Parker 28 27 SAS G 2470 7.2
George Hill 26 23 SAS G 897 1.4
Matt Bonner 45 29 SAS F 1245 3.2
Michael Finley 21 36 SAS G-F 1499 2.5
Roger Mason 30 29 SAS G 1555 2.5
Theo Ratliff 18 36 SAS C-F 751 1.3
Blake Ahearn 61 25 SAS G 348 0.5
DeJuan Blair 37 20 SAS F 89 0.1
Desmon Farmer 61 28 SAS G 745 0.8
Ian Mahinmi 28 23 SAS C 96 0.2
Malik Hairston 48 22 SAS G 466 0.7
Marcus Haislip 13 29 SAS F 89 0.1
Marcus Williams 33 23 SAS F 150 0.2
Total SAS 19822 47.2
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Andrea Bargnani 1 24 TOR F 2578 3.9
Chris Bosh 4 25 TOR F-C 2839 10.1
Demar DeRozan 9 20 TOR F 1001 1.9
Hedo Turkoglu 16 30 TOR F 2825 6.6
Jose Calderon 61 28 TOR G 2650 8.1
Antoine Wright 15 25 TOR G-F 1257 1.4
Jarrett Jack 22 26 TOR G 1712 2.7
Marco Belinelli 18 23 TOR G 1062 1.6
Rasho Nesterovic 17 33 TOR C 1009 2.0
Reggie Evans 61 29 TOR F 907 1.4
Amir Johnson 56 22 TOR F 560 1.8
Hassan Adams 54 25 TOR G 170 0.2
Marcus Banks 13 28 TOR G 384 0.5
Patrick O'Bryant 9 23 TOR C 258 0.5
Quincy Douby 19 25 TOR G 431 0.4
Sonny Weems 39 23 TOR G 179 0.3
Total TOR 19822 43.4
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Andrei Kirilenko 24 28 UTA F 2167 5.2
Carlos Boozer 34 28 UTA F-C 2221 6.4
Deron Williams 3 25 UTA G 2600 8.4
Mehmet Okur 37 30 UTA F-C 2453 6.5
Ronnie Brewer 14 24 UTA G-F 2453 7.7
Kosta Koufos 23 20 UTA C 852 1.6
Kyle Korver 51 28 UTA F 1478 2.9
Matt Harpring 15 33 UTA F 902 1.6
Paul Millsap 47 24 UTA F 1731 5.8
Ronnie Price 61 26 UTA G 984 1.2
C.J. Miles 34 22 UTA G 1178 2.6
Eric Maynor 20 22 UTA G 259 0.4
Kyrylo Fesenko 38 23 UTA C 545 0.9
Total UTA 19822 51.3
Player DP# Ag Team Pos PrjMP WS
Antawn Jamison 4 33 WAS F 2736 6.3
Brendan Haywood 20 30 WAS C 2078 4.5
Caron Butler 10 29 WAS F 2600 5.2
Gilbert Arenas 30 28 WAS G 2075 5.6
Mike Miller 5 29 WAS F 2404 4.2
Andray Blatche 49 23 WAS F 1184 1.8
DeShawn Stevenson 23 28 WAS G 1299 1.4
Fabricio Oberto 61 34 WAS F 704 1.7
Nick Young 16 24 WAS G 1117 1.3
Randy Foye 7 26 WAS G 1644 2.1
Dominic McGuire 47 24 WAS F 655 0.8
JaVale McGee 18 22 WAS C 214 0.4
Javaris Crittenton 19 22 WAS G 391 0.5
Mike James 61 34 WAS G 722 0.5
Total WAS 19822 36.3

Unlike our earlier projections with SPM, which had Cleveland as far and away the #1 team in the NBA, these Win Shares projections like the Lakers as the league's best team again. Utah is #2 in the West and the league, which is somewhat surprising, but somehow conceivable at the same time, if Boozer and the rest of their considerably-talented players stay healthy. Some other patterns are also emerging: Toronto and Indiana acquit themselves well here (just as in the other projections, where they make the playoffs), so both could be seeing a return to the postseason in 2010. The Hawks are not impressive in any of the projections we've trotted out so far -- they don't even make the playoffs here -- which could be bad news for a team that some expect to join the East's elite. Washington is a total mixed bag in our projections, with expectations ranging from 4th in the East to 12th... Which sort of sums up their past few seasons, I guess.

Out West, all of our projections so far see Denver taking a step backwards (though they'll still make the playoffs), with Dallas and New Orleans taking steps forward after a pair of disappointing 2009 campaigns. Portland is all over the place -- they were the top seed in the West in one projection, and they barely make the playoffs here -- and these projections see Houston hurting with the loss of Yao Ming, while Golden State bounces back from their 29-win debacle of 2009 to post a winning record and challenge for a playoff spot again. Oh, and your MVP? While the SPM-based projections have LeBron James blowing the doors off of everyone else, WS says Chris Paul will earn his first MVP trophy in 2010.

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13 Responses to “Early Win Shares-Projected 2009-10 Standings”

  1. Jason J Says:

    Oh if only MVP were voted on with that level of objectivity. The Hornets would have to be a top 3 - 5 team for CP3 even to garner enough attention to make the top 4 in MVP votes.

  2. Joe Schaller Says:

    I've learned over the years not to count on Utah living up to their projected potential.... maybe this will be their fluke year.

  3. Mo Says:

    Yeah, CP led the league in WS in 07-8 and didn't win squat. Was #2 in WS in 08-09 and didn't even garner top 3 MVP votes. Yeah. WS FTW! Woohoo.

  4. Bob Says:

    I would not trust these,WS
    it has andris biedrins at 9.5 and dwyane wade at 9.0

  5. Anonymous Says:

    wel to tell u at least 3 teams in the nba can win 60 games...well with good team improvement i can say still one or to but it'll be tough...this not good to trust!utah?!struggled well last yr 2nd on the west?!kidding me?!denver s.a and portland way down after utah?!i love them but this is way too futuristic....

  6. Anonymous Says:

    wel to tell u at least 3 teams in the nba can win 60 games...well with good team improvement i can say still one or two but it'll be tough...this not good to trust!utah?!struggled well last yr 2nd on the west?!kidding me?!denver s.a and portland way down after utah?!i love them but this is way too futuristic....

  7. BRValentine Says:

    Derrick Rose is third on the Bulls behind Luol and Tyrus? And basically tied with Brad Miller and Noah? Odd.

  8. Tyler Says:

    yo, why do you have Deron (pronounced DARREN!!!! COME ON) spelled DeRon??

    You're better than that, fix it

    thanks guys

  9. Neil Paine Says:

    Ha, thanks, it's been fixed. You know, that's actually the one flaw of the Linkify Tool -- if a player's name contains another player's name within it (i.e. "Deron Williams" has the string "Ron Williams" inside of it), the tool will automatically link the name within the name. This also happens for Baron Davis (he gets linked to Ron Davis) and Rasual Butler (Al Butler) quite a bit, so if you see it messed up like that, give a holler and we'll fix it.

  10. Dean Oliver Says:

    What is DP#?

  11. Neil Paine Says:

    Draft Pick # (overall) when they came out. It only came into play for players in their first 3 seasons.

  12. Sherbs Says:

    While I agree that it is unlikely for Utah to finish 2nd in the west, it is hardly as inconceivable as the above comments suggest. In fact you only have to look back one season to see that the Denver Nuggets finished the 8th seed in 07/08 and then jumped all the way up to the 2nd seed in 08/09.

    Don't forget that Utah had a bad run with injuries last year. If they had a full season from Deron Williams and even a 60 game season from Boozer it is not hard to imagine them winning another 6 games which would have put them up there with the 2nd placed Nuggets.

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