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The 50 Biggest Playoff Upsets, 1991-2009

Posted by Neil Paine on December 4, 2009

9107003_Lakers_v_76ersBack in the spring, I used Statistical Plus/Minus to predict individual playoff series outcomes (and to pretty decent effect, too -- I mean, yes, it did miss on Cleveland-Orlando, but then again so did just about everyone, including the bigwigs at Nike). Anyway, today I'm going to use a similar method to look back on every playoff game from 1991-2009 and see which games ended in the most unlikely outcomes.

Here's the method: I took the updated SPM formula (the regression for which which I ran a month ago, dumping some of those insignificant variables and getting back to Prof. Rosenbaum's original model), and instead of fitting it to team efficiency differential, I made it sum to each team's Simple Rating, which takes into account strength of schedule. I did this because we can calculate an expected winning % for each team in a game, given their SRS, their opponent's SRS, and the location of the game. In fact, you can use the following equation to predict a team's probability of winning with that information in hand:

xWP = 1 / (1 + exp(0.622 - 0.168(tm_srs) + 0.168(opp_srs) - 1.244(homecourt)))

Where homecourt = 1 if the team is at home and 0 if they're on the road. So an example of this would be the game last night between the Nuggets and the Heat -- Denver had an SRS of 4.46, Miami had an SRS of 0.71, and the Nuggets were the home team (homecourt = 1), so I estimated their probability of winning as 0.778 .

I did this for every playoff game since 1991, but with a twist: instead of using the team's standard, full-season SRS, I took their distribution of minutes from the game in question and calculated with their expected SRS would be given the seasonal SRS-SPM's of their players. For example: when the Spurs beat the Cavs in Game 1 of the 2007 NBA Finals, the two teams fielded these lineups:

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Bruce Bowen SAS 40 -1.84 LeBron James CLE 44 8.20
Tim Duncan SAS 39 7.65 Sasha Pavlovic CLE 36 -1.87
Tony Parker SAS 38 1.43 Anderson Varejao CLE 31 2.88
Manu Ginobili SAS 28 8.84 Daniel Gibson CLE 27 -2.25
Robert Horry SAS 23 2.55 Drew Gooden CLE 25 -0.90
Michael Finley SAS 19 -1.39 Larry Hughes CLE 23 -0.88
Fabricio Oberto SAS 17 -1.02 Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 23 0.50
Francisco Elson SAS 15 -1.68 Donyell Marshall CLE 15 0.85
Jacque Vaughn SAS 9 -2.58 Damon Jones CLE 11 -3.41
Brent Barry SAS 7 3.26 Eric Snow CLE 0 -2.45
Beno Udrih SAS 0 -4.05

That distribution of minutes gave San Antonio an SRS of 10.97 and Cleveland a 5.66 mark; using the equation above, you find that teams playing at home with an SRS of 10.97 vs. an opponent of 5.66 tend to win 82.0% of the time (and San Antonio did win, 85-76). For this game, I'm giving the Spurs +0.18 "credit" for the victory, or (1 - 0.82), the amount by which they exceeded their expected win probability by actually winning the game. Teams that are favored will obviously never get more than 0.5 "credits" in a game, since they're always expected to win more than half of the time. But teams that pull off huge upsets will receive large amounts of credit -- in the Cavs-Spurs example, had Cleveland managed to win they would have exceeded their win expectancy by 0.82 (100% - 18%), and would have gotten that credit for the improbable win.

And that's the basis for this list. For every game I calculated what percentage of the time a certain outcome "should" have happened given the location of the game and the players on the court. Here are the games in which the outcome contradicted that prediction by the greatest amount:

50. April 30, 1995: Hornets 106, Bulls 89 (Bulls xW% = 81.0%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Alonzo Mourning CHH 44 1.93 Scottie Pippen CHI 43 9.15
Larry Johnson CHH 41 1.28 Michael Jordan CHI 40 7.47
Muggsy Bogues CHH 36 1.18 B.J. Armstrong CHI 35 -0.77
Hersey Hawkins CHH 28 2.72 Toni Kukoc CHI 31 3.74
Dell Curry CHH 24 -0.03 Luc Longley CHI 25 -1.86
Robert Parish CHH 23 -5.88 Steve Kerr CHI 22 -2.13
David Wingate CHH 16 -4.07 Will Perdue CHI 21 -0.58
Michael Adams CHH 11 2.98 Bill Wennington CHI 10 -3.02
Darrin Hancock CHH 9 -4.17 Pete Myers CHI 9 -3.11
Kenny Gattison CHH 8 -3.53 Jud Buechler CHI 3 -0.68
Team 0.46 Corie Blount CHI 1 -1.54
Team 12.79

49. April 24, 2003: T-Wolves 114 @ Lakers 110 (Lakers xW% = 81.0%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Wally Szczerbiak MIN 49 0.61 Kobe Bryant LAL 50 7.71
Kevin Garnett MIN 43 9.13 Shaquille O'Neal LAL 46 7.38
Troy Hudson MIN 40 -1.32 Derek Fisher LAL 35 -1.93
Anthony Peeler MIN 34 -0.73 Rick Fox LAL 34 -0.76
Rasho Nesterovic MIN 32 -0.88 Robert Horry LAL 33 1.72
Kendall Gill MIN 21 -3.04 Devean George LAL 23 -1.74
Marc Jackson MIN 20 -3.00 Jannero Pargo LAL 18 -5.91
Rod Strickland MIN 14 -0.79 Mark Madsen LAL 14 -3.81
Gary Trent MIN 7 -0.56 Brian Shaw LAL 12 -4.33
Joe Smith MIN 5 -0.57 Team 8.24
Team 3.30

48. May 1, 1997: Magic 99, Heat 91 (Heat xW% = 81.1%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Anfernee Hardaway ORL 48 5.33 Tim Hardaway MIA 45 5.76
Darrell Armstrong ORL 40 1.15 Alonzo Mourning MIA 43 3.79
Derek Strong ORL 36 -3.01 P.J. Brown MIA 39 0.21
Gerald Wilkins ORL 33 -4.25 Voshon Lenard MIA 38 1.30
Dennis Scott ORL 30 -0.40 Jamal Mashburn MIA 33 0.82
Danny Schayes ORL 26 -4.38 Dan Majerle MIA 27 2.79
Nick Anderson ORL 19 3.75 Keith Askins MIA 15 -0.35
Brian Shaw ORL 8 -1.94 Team 12.01
Team -0.34

47. May 20, 2009: Magic 107 @ Cavaliers 106 (Cavs xWP% = 81.2%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Rashard Lewis ORL 41 3.37 Delonte West CLE 46 1.14
Hedo Turkoglu ORL 40 1.95 LeBron James CLE 41 14.66
Dwight Howard ORL 38 6.84 Mo Williams CLE 41 1.19
Rafer Alston ORL 31 1.57 Anderson Varejao CLE 36 0.93
Mickael Pietrus ORL 29 -0.36 Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 32 -0.97
Courtney Lee ORL 27 -1.44 Joe Smith CLE 15 -1.96
Anthony Johnson ORL 14 -2.24 Wally Szczerbiak CLE 13 -1.43
Marcin Gortat ORL 9 0.09 Ben Wallace CLE 9 0.58
Tony Battie ORL 6 -4.27 Daniel Gibson CLE 3 -1.51
Team 8.92 Team 13.92

46. June 6, 2004: Pistons 87 @ Lakers 75 (Lakers xW% = 81.5%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Richard Hamilton DET 43 0.06 Kobe Bryant LAL 47 6.63
Ben Wallace DET 41 4.77 Shaquille O'Neal LAL 45 6.00
Chauncey Billups DET 39 3.94 Karl Malone LAL 44 2.93
Tayshaun Prince DET 35 -0.01 Gary Payton LAL 31 1.10
Rasheed Wallace DET 29 2.59 Devean George LAL 27 -0.67
Elden Campbell DET 18 -0.94 Derek Fisher LAL 20 -1.10
Lindsey Hunter DET 13 -0.33 Kareem Rush LAL 16 -4.78
Corliss Williamson DET 11 -3.76 Stanislav Medvedenko LAL 6 -3.01
Mehmet Okur DET 6 0.61 Rick Fox LAL 4 -2.22
Darvin Ham DET 4 -3.37 Team 12.52
Mike James DET 1 1.04
Team 7.40

45. May 22, 2008: Pistons 103 @ Celtics 97 (Celtics xW% = 81.8%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Tayshaun Prince DET 44 -0.38 Paul Pierce BOS 46 4.80
Richard Hamilton DET 41 0.87 Kevin Garnett BOS 41 7.31
Antonio McDyess DET 38 0.07 Rajon Rondo BOS 41 1.83
Rasheed Wallace DET 36 4.91 Ray Allen BOS 29 1.59
Chauncey Billups DET 32 7.08 Kendrick Perkins BOS 25 -0.06
Rodney Stuckey DET 17 -0.43 P.J. Brown BOS 18 -2.22
Theo Ratliff DET 14 -1.04 James Posey BOS 16 2.95
Lindsey Hunter DET 10 -1.29 Glen Davis BOS 6 -2.14
Jason Maxiell DET 4 -0.23 Eddie House BOS 6 0.40
Arron Afflalo DET 0 -2.77 Tony Allen BOS 4 -1.85
Team 8.25 Leon Powe BOS 2 0.62
Team 13.48

44. April 23, 1998: Rockets 103 @ Jazz 90 (Jazz xW% = 81.9%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Hakeem Olajuwon HOU 37 4.34 Karl Malone UTA 42 8.76
Clyde Drexler HOU 36 4.97 Bryon Russell UTA 34 1.82
Matt Maloney HOU 34 -2.97 Jeff Hornacek UTA 33 3.24
Mario Elie HOU 31 -0.45 John Stockton UTA 33 4.20
Kevin Willis HOU 31 -2.89 Greg Foster UTA 18 -6.26
Charles Barkley HOU 27 5.04 Shandon Anderson UTA 16 -1.13
Eddie Johnson HOU 15 -3.75 Adam Keefe UTA 16 -0.28
Matt Bullard HOU 14 -0.66 Howard Eisley UTA 15 -1.87
Brent Price HOU 14 -1.10 Greg Ostertag UTA 15 -0.86
Charles Jones HOU 1 -2.09 Antoine Carr UTA 14 -4.07
Team 3.92 Chris Morris UTA 4 -0.22
Team 9.20

43. April 28, 2008: Hawks 97, Celtics 92 (Celtics xW% = 81.9%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Joe Johnson ATL 46 1.04 Ray Allen BOS 44 1.59
Al Horford ATL 43 -0.68 Kevin Garnett BOS 41 7.31
Mike Bibby ATL 40 -0.18 Paul Pierce BOS 35 4.80
Josh Smith ATL 37 4.27 Rajon Rondo BOS 35 1.83
Josh Childress ATL 31 0.69 Kendrick Perkins BOS 24 -0.06
Marvin Williams ATL 22 -1.58 Leon Powe BOS 21 0.62
Zaza Pachulia ATL 11 -3.81 James Posey BOS 18 2.95
Solomon Jones ATL 3 -12.03 Sam Cassell BOS 6 -1.80
Acie Law ATL 3 -7.04 Eddie House BOS 6 0.40
Mario West ATL 0 -0.17 Glen Davis BOS 4 -2.14
Team 1.21 Team 13.88

42. May 18, 1999: Knicks 100, Hawks 92 (Hawks xW% = 82.2%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Allan Houston NYK 35 -2.97 Dikembe Mutombo ATL 46 4.58
Larry Johnson NYK 33 1.17 Mookie Blaylock ATL 38 4.56
Latrell Sprewell NYK 33 0.46 Grant Long ATL 37 2.71
Kurt Thomas NYK 33 -0.46 Chris Crawford ATL 34 -4.48
Chris Dudley NYK 31 -1.32 Steve Smith ATL 31 2.87
Chris Childs NYK 27 1.37 Tyrone Corbin ATL 28 -1.11
Charlie Ward NYK 21 3.44 Anthony Johnson ATL 18 -2.37
Patrick Ewing NYK 17 1.05 Ed Gray ATL 6 -8.42
Marcus Camby NYK 10 1.49 Mark West ATL 2 -1.31
Team 0.73 Team 6.12

41. May 7, 1994: Nuggets 98 @ Sonics 94 (Sonics xW% = 82.2%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Dikembe Mutombo DEN 45 4.58 Shawn Kemp SEA 47 6.52
Bryant Stith DEN 39 -0.52 Kendall Gill SEA 42 0.80
Reggie Williams DEN 37 1.94 Detlef Schrempf SEA 39 -0.34
Robert Pack DEN 36 -1.33 Gary Payton SEA 38 1.93
LaPhonso Ellis DEN 35 1.29 Sam Perkins SEA 38 -0.05
Bison Dele DEN 34 1.12 Nate McMillan SEA 20 7.59
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf DEN 21 -1.60 Michael Cage SEA 17 -1.29
Rodney Rogers DEN 13 -0.49 Vincent Askew SEA 16 -0.20
Tom Hammonds DEN 5 -2.88 Ricky Pierce SEA 8 0.04
Team 4.51 Team 9.91

40. May 16, 1999: Knicks 78 @ Heat 77 (Heat xW% = 82.5%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Patrick Ewing NYK 40 1.05 Tim Hardaway MIA 41 2.78
Allan Houston NYK 39 -2.97 Alonzo Mourning MIA 41 5.80
Larry Johnson NYK 39 1.17 Dan Majerle MIA 37 1.18
Latrell Sprewell NYK 38 0.46 P.J. Brown MIA 36 0.49
Charlie Ward NYK 34 3.44 Terry Porter MIA 30 2.58
Chris Childs NYK 19 1.37 Jamal Mashburn MIA 24 -0.86
Marcus Camby NYK 15 1.49 Clarence Weatherspoon MIA 15 -0.42
Kurt Thomas NYK 15 -0.46 Voshon Lenard MIA 14 -3.13
Rick Brunson NYK 1 -2.15 Keith Askins MIA 1 -2.92
Team 3.02 Duane Causwell MIA 1 -8.19
Team 8.52

39. May 10, 1992: Knicks 93, Bulls 86 (Bulls xW% = 82.6%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Xavier McDaniel NYK 38 -2.09 Scottie Pippen CHI 46 6.79
Gerald Wilkins NYK 38 -2.66 Michael Jordan CHI 44 11.46
Patrick Ewing NYK 34 5.70 Horace Grant CHI 42 6.04
Charles Oakley NYK 30 0.25 B.J. Armstrong CHI 28 -3.90
Anthony Mason NYK 27 -0.25 Bill Cartwright CHI 24 -4.51
John Starks NYK 25 3.61 John Paxson CHI 18 -3.78
Greg Anthony NYK 24 -1.50 Scott Williams CHI 14 1.71
Mark Jackson NYK 24 2.72 Cliff Levingston CHI 8 -0.11
Team 2.78 Will Perdue CHI 8 -1.10
Craig Hodges CHI 5 -6.52
Stacey King CHI 3 -3.97
Team 15.72

38. April 29, 1995: Cavaliers 90 @ Knicks 84 (Knicks xW% = 82.8%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Chris Mills CLE 45 -0.89 Anthony Mason NYK 42 2.57
Hot Rod Williams CLE 43 1.00 Patrick Ewing NYK 39 3.79
Bobby Phills CLE 40 -0.73 Charles Oakley NYK 38 1.18
Mark Price CLE 37 2.40 Derek Harper NYK 35 -0.47
Tyrone Hill CLE 33 -0.19 John Starks NYK 34 2.04
Michael Cage CLE 20 0.23 Charles Smith NYK 19 -1.40
Steve Colter CLE 11 -1.52 Hubert Davis NYK 15 -1.58
Tony Campbell CLE 8 -2.37 Greg Anthony NYK 13 1.90
Danny Ferry CLE 3 1.28 Herb Williams NYK 5 -5.66
Team 0.61 Team 6.24

37. May 12, 2005: Heat 102 @ Wizards 95 (Wizards xW% = 83.0%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Dwyane Wade MIA 44 4.69 Gilbert Arenas WAS 48 4.93
Eddie Jones MIA 41 2.04 Larry Hughes WAS 48 6.44
Udonis Haslem MIA 40 -0.08 Antawn Jamison WAS 44 -1.49
Damon Jones MIA 40 1.56 Brendan Haywood WAS 34 0.27
Alonzo Mourning MIA 35 -2.28 Juan Dixon WAS 30 -1.78
Keyon Dooling MIA 18 -3.91 Jared Jeffries WAS 20 -1.89
Michael Doleac MIA 13 -4.77 Michael Ruffin WAS 16 -0.43
Shandon Anderson MIA 9 -2.17 Team 8.15
Team 2.44

36. April 21, 2004: Bucks 92 @ Pistons 88 (Pistons xW% = 83.0%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Desmond Mason MIL 43 -1.09 Ben Wallace DET 41 4.77
Michael Redd MIL 41 2.27 Rasheed Wallace DET 41 2.59
Joe Smith MIL 31 0.05 Chauncey Billups DET 40 3.94
Brevin Knight MIL 27 1.65 Richard Hamilton DET 35 0.06
Toni Kukoc MIL 26 2.13 Tayshaun Prince DET 28 -0.01
Brian Skinner MIL 24 -2.18 Lindsey Hunter DET 20 -0.33
Damon Jones MIL 22 -0.65 Corliss Williamson DET 14 -3.76
Keith Van Horn MIL 20 1.67 Mike James DET 10 1.04
Erick Strickland MIL 6 -0.29 Darvin Ham DET 8 -3.37
2.35 Mehmet Okur DET 3 0.61
8.06

35. May 10, 2008: Pistons 90 @ Magic 89 (Magic xW% = 83.2%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Tayshaun Prince DET 45 -0.38 Dwight Howard ORL 44 4.51
Richard Hamilton DET 43 0.87 Hedo Turkoglu ORL 44 2.97
Rasheed Wallace DET 41 4.91 Rashard Lewis ORL 41 3.13
Antonio McDyess DET 39 0.07 Jameer Nelson ORL 35 1.08
Lindsey Hunter DET 26 -1.29 Maurice Evans ORL 30 -0.69
Rodney Stuckey DET 21 -0.43 Keith Bogans ORL 21 0.18
Jason Maxiell DET 14 -0.23 Keyon Dooling ORL 18 -1.69
Jarvis Hayes DET 4 -0.64 Marcin Gortat ORL 3 -1.64
Juan Dixon DET 2 -3.93 Team 9.39
Team 3.58

34. April 28, 1992: Nets 109, Cavaliers 104 (Cavs xW% = 83.5%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Derrick Coleman NJN 40 2.03 Larry Nance CLE 45 5.60
Mookie Blaylock NJN 37 1.81 Brad Daugherty CLE 44 5.64
Drazen Petrovic NJN 37 -0.81 Mark Price CLE 39 4.73
Chris Morris NJN 33 2.06 Hot Rod Williams CLE 36 4.56
Sam Bowie NJN 30 0.59 Steve Kerr CLE 30 -0.71
Terry Mills NJN 23 -1.59 John Battle CLE 18 -6.41
Chris Dudley NJN 18 0.24 Mike Sanders CLE 15 0.87
Tate George NJN 13 -4.54 Craig Ehlo CLE 9 0.60
Kenny Anderson NJN 9 -3.44 Danny Ferry CLE 4 -2.53
Team 1.70 Team 15.01

33. May 10, 1999: Kings 101 @ Jazz 90 (Jazz xW% = 83.5%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Vlade Divac SAC 41 3.00 Karl Malone UTA 40 7.37
Chris Webber SAC 37 2.61 Bryon Russell UTA 38 2.32
Jason Williams SAC 35 0.12 John Stockton UTA 34 5.63
Vernon Maxwell SAC 29 -1.28 Jeff Hornacek UTA 32 2.28
Corliss Williamson SAC 25 -3.96 Greg Ostertag UTA 31 0.63
Tariq Abdul-Wahad SAC 22 -3.38 Howard Eisley UTA 24 -3.41
Jon Barry SAC 19 4.96 Shandon Anderson UTA 16 -2.64
Scot Pollard SAC 17 1.99 Thurl Bailey UTA 10 -3.29
Peja Stojakovic SAC 15 -1.28 Todd Fuller UTA 9 -6.91
Team 2.55 Greg Foster UTA 6 -6.75
Team 8.49

32. May 8, 1992: Celtics 110, Cavaliers 107 (Cavs xW% = 83.6%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Reggie Lewis BOS 45 2.21 Brad Daugherty CLE 45 5.64
Robert Parish BOS 39 0.49 Larry Nance CLE 42 5.60
Ed Pinckney BOS 39 3.04 Mark Price CLE 40 4.73
Kevin Gamble BOS 32 -0.06 Craig Ehlo CLE 36 0.60
Kevin McHale BOS 30 -0.25 Hot Rod Williams CLE 31 4.56
John Bagley BOS 28 -2.43 Mike Sanders CLE 23 0.87
Dee Brown BOS 19 -1.41 John Battle CLE 14 -6.41
Sherman Douglas BOS 4 -1.66 Steve Kerr CLE 8 -0.71
Joe Kleine BOS 4 -2.27 Henry James CLE 1 -7.24
Team 2.44 Team 15.80

31. April 29, 2001: Knicks 97 @ Raptors 89 (Raptors xW% = 83.8%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Latrell Sprewell NYK 47 -0.31 Vince Carter TOR 47 7.41
Allan Houston NYK 45 -0.76 Alvin Williams TOR 45 0.70
Kurt Thomas NYK 39 1.84 Chris Childs TOR 39 -0.57
Mark Jackson NYK 33 1.04 Antonio Davis TOR 39 -0.71
Glen Rice NYK 31 -0.98 Charles Oakley TOR 37 -0.71
Othella Harrington NYK 27 -3.30 Dell Curry TOR 13 -2.63
Charlie Ward NYK 17 3.22 Keon Clark TOR 10 0.33
Felton Spencer NYK 1 -1.09 Jerome Williams TOR 10 0.96
Team -0.17 Team 5.88

30. May 27, 2008: Lakers 93 @ Spurs 91 (Spurs xW% = 83.8%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Kobe Bryant LAL 41 7.84 Tim Duncan SAS 44 6.01
Pau Gasol LAL 37 2.41 Tony Parker SAS 42 0.76
Lamar Odom LAL 31 2.49 Manu Ginobili SAS 36 9.50
Vladimir Radmanovic LAL 31 -0.29 Bruce Bowen SAS 34 -1.74
Derek Fisher LAL 23 -0.81 Brent Barry SAS 27 3.71
Jordan Farmar LAL 22 -0.05 Fabricio Oberto SAS 21 1.27
Luke Walton LAL 20 -1.83 Robert Horry SAS 15 0.97
Sasha Vujacic LAL 19 -0.64 Michael Finley SAS 8 -2.42
Ronny Turiaf LAL 10 0.54 Ime Udoka SAS 8 0.21
Trevor Ariza LAL 1 2.32 Kurt Thomas SAS 0 1.50
Team 8.89 Team 14.95

29. May 4, 2009: Rockets 100 @ Lakers 92 (Lakers xW% = 83.9%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Ron Artest HOU 40 3.30 Pau Gasol LAL 44 3.14
Yao Ming HOU 40 2.40 Kobe Bryant LAL 43 6.38
Shane Battier HOU 39 2.02 Trevor Ariza LAL 38 3.01
Aaron Brooks HOU 36 -1.52 Derek Fisher LAL 32 -0.09
Luis Scola HOU 34 0.93 Lamar Odom LAL 31 2.53
Kyle Lowry HOU 17 1.22 Andrew Bynum LAL 15 0.90
Carl Landry HOU 12 -0.56 Sasha Vujacic LAL 13 2.26
Von Wafer HOU 7 -1.70 Shannon Brown LAL 12 -3.48
Brent Barry HOU 6 -1.83 Josh Powell LAL 5 -7.75
Chuck Hayes HOU 6 -0.21 Jordan Farmar LAL 2 -3.19
Team 5.77 Team 11.87

28. June 5, 1992: Blazers 115 @ Bulls 104 (Bulls xW% = 84.0%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Terry Porter POR 49 3.26 Michael Jordan CHI 50 11.46
Buck Williams POR 48 0.97 Scottie Pippen CHI 48 6.79
Kevin Duckworth POR 43 -4.75 Horace Grant CHI 46 6.04
Jerome Kersey POR 41 2.25 John Paxson CHI 42 -3.78
Clyde Drexler POR 38 9.93 Bill Cartwright CHI 34 -4.51
Danny Ainge POR 23 1.66 Scott Williams CHI 20 1.71
Clifford Robinson POR 18 0.32 Cliff Levingston CHI 9 -0.11
Ennis Whatley POR 5 0.41 B.J. Armstrong CHI 7 -3.90
Team 9.77 Bob Hansen CHI 6 -4.07
Will Perdue CHI 3 -1.10
Team 15.90

27. May 2, 2008: Hawks 103, Celtics 100 (Celtics xW% = 84.0%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Joe Johnson ATL 43 1.04 Ray Allen BOS 40 1.59
Mike Bibby ATL 41 -0.18 Kevin Garnett BOS 40 7.31
Al Horford ATL 35 -0.68 Paul Pierce BOS 34 4.80
Josh Smith ATL 29 4.27 Kendrick Perkins BOS 33 -0.06
Zaza Pachulia ATL 28 -3.81 Rajon Rondo BOS 28 1.83
Marvin Williams ATL 28 -1.58 James Posey BOS 20 2.95
Josh Childress ATL 26 0.69 Sam Cassell BOS 19 -1.80
Acie Law ATL 5 -7.04 Leon Powe BOS 15 0.62
Solomon Jones ATL 1 -12.03 P.J. Brown BOS 4 -2.22
Mario West ATL 0 -0.17 Glen Davis BOS 1 -2.14
Team -0.90 Tony Allen BOS 0 -1.85
Eddie House BOS 0 0.40
Team 12.64

26. May 2, 1996: Pacers 83 @ Hawks 75 (Hawks xW% = 84.3%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Dale Davis IND 42 0.38 Steve Smith ATL 45 0.82
Mark Jackson IND 37 2.41 Mookie Blaylock ATL 43 6.47
Derrick McKey IND 35 1.57 Grant Long ATL 40 1.27
Antonio Davis IND 26 -0.71 Christian Laettner ATL 33 1.42
Rik Smits IND 26 -0.07 Stacey Augmon ATL 29 -0.90
Ricky Pierce IND 25 -0.15 Craig Ehlo ATL 22 -0.56
Travis Best IND 24 -3.14 Sean Rooks ATL 13 -2.12
Duane Ferrell IND 14 -2.54 Alan Henderson ATL 10 -2.53
Haywoode Workman IND 11 0.16 Reggie Jordan ATL 5 1.57
Team 0.56 Team 6.86

25. April 26, 1998: Knicks 96 @ Heat 86 (Heat xW% = 84.4%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Allan Houston NYK 42 -1.84 Alonzo Mourning MIA 45 1.66
Larry Johnson NYK 42 -0.69 Tim Hardaway MIA 44 4.81
John Starks NYK 31 1.47 P.J. Brown MIA 41 1.02
Terry Cummings NYK 27 -2.02 Voshon Lenard MIA 41 -0.07
Charles Oakley NYK 27 1.93 Dan Majerle MIA 24 1.76
Charlie Ward NYK 27 5.15 Keith Askins MIA 21 -1.31
Chris Childs NYK 22 0.57 Eric Murdock MIA 14 3.23
Chris Mills NYK 21 -0.60 Jamal Mashburn MIA 10 -0.72
Anthony Bowie NYK 1 -2.48 Team 7.88
Team 1.53

24. April 22, 2007: Nuggets 95 @ Spurs 89 (Spurs xW% = 84.9%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Allen Iverson DEN 44 1.39 Tim Duncan SAS 39 7.65
Carmelo Anthony DEN 40 3.11 Tony Parker SAS 37 1.43
Marcus Camby DEN 37 5.09 Michael Finley SAS 33 -1.39
Nene Hilario DEN 37 1.00 Manu Ginobili SAS 30 8.84
Steve Blake DEN 36 -2.96 Robert Horry SAS 24 2.55
Eduardo Najera DEN 19 0.38 Bruce Bowen SAS 19 -1.84
Linas Kleiza DEN 18 -2.72 Fabricio Oberto SAS 15 -1.02
J.R. Smith DEN 4 0.88 Francisco Elson SAS 13 -1.68
Team 5.67 Brent Barry SAS 12 3.26
Jacque Vaughn SAS 10 -2.58
Matt Bonner SAS 2 0.14
Team 12.25

23. April 19, 2003: Celtics 103 @ Pacers 100 (Pacers xW% = 85.0%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Antoine Walker BOS 46 0.31 Jermaine O'Neal IND 45 3.14
Paul Pierce BOS 45 5.77 Jamaal Tinsley IND 43 1.19
Tony Delk BOS 38 -0.10 Ron Artest IND 41 5.41
Eric Williams BOS 38 -0.72 Reggie Miller IND 29 0.95
Walter McCarty BOS 30 -0.27 Brad Miller IND 26 3.38
Mark Blount BOS 15 -3.11 Al Harrington IND 24 -2.89
Tony Battie BOS 10 -1.06 Austin Croshere IND 12 -0.24
J.R. Bremer BOS 10 -1.70 Jonathan Bender IND 7 -2.21
Grant Long BOS 6 -6.39 Tim Hardaway IND 5 1.81
Mark Bryant BOS 2 -11.57 Ron Mercer IND 5 -6.20
Team 2.06 Jeff Foster IND 2 -1.06
Erick Strickland IND 1 -1.10
Team 8.68

22. April 20, 2008: Sixers 90 @ Pistons 86 (Pistons xW% = 85.6%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Andre Iguodala PHI 45 5.38 Rasheed Wallace DET 40 4.91
Andre Miller PHI 44 1.12 Tayshaun Prince DET 39 -0.38
Samuel Dalembert PHI 33 -1.13 Richard Hamilton DET 38 0.87
Reggie Evans PHI 31 -0.37 Chauncey Billups DET 35 7.08
Willie Green PHI 28 -3.52 Jason Maxiell DET 29 -0.23
Thaddeus Young PHI 22 -0.51 Antonio McDyess DET 20 0.07
Louis Williams PHI 21 0.93 Lindsey Hunter DET 12 -1.29
Jason Smith PHI 9 -4.59 Rodney Stuckey DET 12 -0.43
Rodney Carney PHI 3 -2.09 Jarvis Hayes DET 5 -0.64
Team 2.23 Theo Ratliff DET 5 -1.04
Team 9.11

21. April 19, 2003: Suns 96 @ Spurs 95 (Spurs xW% = 86.1%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Stephon Marbury PHO 53 2.25 Tim Duncan SAS 46 7.95
Shawn Marion PHO 53 6.08 Stephen Jackson SAS 46 1.53
Anfernee Hardaway PHO 47 -1.10 Tony Parker SAS 40 -0.46
Amare Stoudemire PHO 39 -0.63 Manu Ginobili SAS 39 3.85
Joe Johnson PHO 37 -2.36 David Robinson SAS 31 2.01
Bo Outlaw PHO 14 1.20 Malik Rose SAS 28 -0.30
Scott Williams PHO 13 -3.88 Bruce Bowen SAS 21 -0.45
Jake Voskuhl PHO 7 0.16 Speedy Claxton SAS 13 0.51
Tom Gugliotta PHO 1 -4.89 Kevin Willis SAS 1 -4.18
Casey Jacobsen PHO 1 -3.08 Team 11.61
Team 4.48

20. April 30, 1993: Lakers 107 @ Suns 103 (Suns xW% = 86.2%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Sedale Threatt LAL 40 1.20 Dan Majerle PHO 48 2.88
A.C. Green LAL 39 0.71 Charles Barkley PHO 44 10.19
Vlade Divac LAL 37 4.42 Tom Chambers PHO 28 -1.30
Byron Scott LAL 35 -1.77 Danny Ainge PHO 27 1.05
Elden Campbell LAL 32 -1.37 Cedric Ceballos PHO 26 0.28
James Worthy LAL 31 -2.38 Mark West PHO 22 -2.51
Tony Smith LAL 13 -0.46 Negele Knight PHO 21 -8.28
Doug Christie LAL 8 -0.56 Richard Dumas PHO 16 1.51
James Edwards LAL 5 -4.54 Frank Johnson PHO 4 -3.02
Team 0.55 Oliver Miller PHO 4 0.50
Team 7.72

19. May 8, 2006: Nets 100 @ Heat 88 (Heat xW% = 86.2%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Jason Kidd NJN 43 6.57 Dwyane Wade MIA 40 8.78
Vince Carter NJN 39 5.68 Antoine Walker MIA 31 -0.60
Lamond Murray NJN 33 -3.60 Jason Williams MIA 31 -0.03
Nenad Krstic NJN 25 -3.33 Shaquille O'Neal MIA 29 4.17
Jason Collins NJN 24 -3.16 Udonis Haslem MIA 27 -1.48
Richard Jefferson NJN 22 2.62 James Posey MIA 24 0.93
Clifford Robinson NJN 19 -2.62 Gary Payton MIA 23 -0.90
John Thomas NJN 16 -9.74 Derek Anderson MIA 15 -0.88
Jacque Vaughn NJN 14 -4.63 Michael Doleac MIA 10 -4.87
Antoine Wright NJN 0 -11.41 Alonzo Mourning MIA 6 0.01
Team 0.28 Team 7.47

18. April 22, 2007: Warriors 97 @ Mavericks 85 (Mavs xW% = 86.4%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
BaRon Davis GSW 44 5.16 Josh Howard DAL 43 3.26
Stephen Jackson GSW 44 -0.69 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 38 7.69
Jason Richardson GSW 41 1.14 Devin Harris DAL 37 1.90
Al Harrington GSW 37 -0.98 Jason Terry DAL 37 2.49
Matt Barnes GSW 24 1.12 Devean George DAL 31 -1.82
Monta Ellis GSW 23 -1.58 Jerry Stackhouse DAL 20 -0.79
Mickael Pietrus GSW 15 -1.74 DeSagana Diop DAL 16 1.42
Andris Biedrins GSW 7 0.30 Greg Buckner DAL 13 -2.01
Team 3.69 Erick Dampier DAL 2 -0.17
Team 10.95

17. April 25, 1997: Suns 106 @ Sonics 101 (Sonics xW% = 87.7%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Kevin Johnson PHO 42 5.01 Gary Payton SEA 45 5.42
Rex Chapman PHO 41 -0.58 Shawn Kemp SEA 43 2.58
Jason Kidd PHO 41 4.38 Hersey Hawkins SEA 41 3.54
Danny Manning PHO 30 1.57 Detlef Schrempf SEA 34 1.97
Wesley Person PHO 20 0.28 Terry Cummings SEA 25 -2.55
Hot Rod Williams PHO 20 1.17 Sam Perkins SEA 24 1.33
Wayman Tisdale PHO 18 -9.37 Nate McMillan SEA 20 4.83
Mark Bryant PHO 13 -1.78 David Wingate SEA 8 -2.77
Mike Brown PHO 11 -0.88 Team 12.71
Cedric Ceballos PHO 3 -1.68
Loren Meyer PHO 1 -8.34
Team 4.74

16. June 21, 2005: Pistons 95 @ Spurs 86 (Spurs xW% = 87.7%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Richard Hamilton DET 44 -0.21 Bruce Bowen SAS 41 -1.09
Tayshaun Prince DET 44 0.34 Manu Ginobili SAS 41 8.04
Ben Wallace DET 44 4.17 Tim Duncan SAS 40 8.02
Chauncey Billups DET 39 4.18 Tony Parker SAS 38 1.16
Antonio McDyess DET 28 -0.23 Robert Horry SAS 30 2.93
Rasheed Wallace DET 24 1.50 Brent Barry SAS 25 1.71
Lindsey Hunter DET 16 -0.81 Nazr Mohammed SAS 24 -1.31
Carlos Arroyo DET 1 -3.84 Beno Udrih SAS 1 -1.31
Team 7.60 Team 15.57

15. April 20, 2003: Magic 99 @ Pistons 94 (Pistons xW% = 87.8%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Tracy McGrady ORL 39 11.33 Ben Wallace DET 43 5.13
Drew Gooden ORL 35 -3.65 Clifford Robinson DET 42 0.06
Darrell Armstrong ORL 30 1.30 Chauncey Billups DET 37 4.42
Jacque Vaughn ORL 25 -3.91 Richard Hamilton DET 37 0.29
Gordan Giricek ORL 21 -4.00 Corliss Williamson DET 24 -2.20
Pat Garrity ORL 20 -1.06 Michael Curry DET 23 -3.17
Shawn Kemp ORL 19 -3.49 Chucky Atkins DET 12 -3.56
Chris Whitney ORL 19 -3.63 Jon Barry DET 11 3.53
Andrew DeClercq ORL 12 -1.64 Mehmet Okur DET 11 0.14
Steven Hunter ORL 11 -3.07 Team 5.62
Pat Burke ORL 9 -8.58
Team -2.41

14. May 27, 2003: Mavericks 103 @ Spurs 91 (Spurs xW% = 88.3%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Michael Finley DAL 44 0.55 Tim Duncan SAS 44 7.95
Nick Van Exel DAL 39 -1.45 Bruce Bowen SAS 39 -0.45
Steve Nash DAL 35 2.38 Tony Parker SAS 37 -0.46
Eduardo Najera DAL 33 1.36 Stephen Jackson SAS 36 1.53
Walt Williams DAL 32 0.42 Malik Rose SAS 27 -0.30
Raef LaFrentz DAL 24 1.66 David Robinson SAS 24 2.01
Raja Bell DAL 14 -2.36 Manu Ginobili SAS 21 3.85
Tariq Abdul-Wahad DAL 13 -1.61 Speedy Claxton SAS 11 0.51
Adrian Griffin DAL 6 -0.26 Kevin Willis SAS 1 -4.18
Team 1.95 Team 10.27

13. May 7, 2002: Spurs 88 @ Lakers 85 (Lakers xW% = 88.6%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Tim Duncan SAS 46 7.54 Kobe Bryant LAL 43 4.49
Tony Parker SAS 34 -0.75 Shaquille O'Neal LAL 40 8.53
Bruce Bowen SAS 33 -1.80 Derek Fisher LAL 38 -0.17
Malik Rose SAS 31 -0.74 Robert Horry LAL 33 3.83
Danny Ferry SAS 24 -0.34 Rick Fox LAL 28 -0.57
Antonio Daniels SAS 20 -0.67 Samaki Walker LAL 22 -0.61
Mark Bryant SAS 19 -0.97 Devean George LAL 21 0.26
Steve Smith SAS 19 -0.68 Brian Shaw LAL 12 -0.94
Terry Porter SAS 14 1.12 Lindsey Hunter LAL 3 -3.25
Team 4.21 Team 12.69

12. April 28, 1996: Kings 90 @ Sonics 81 (Sonics xW% = 89.0%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Mitch Richmond SAC 48 3.50 Detlef Schrempf SEA 40 2.03
Brian Grant SAC 39 -1.12 Hersey Hawkins SEA 39 1.73
Billy Owens SAC 39 -0.75 Shawn Kemp SEA 38 4.03
Michael Smith SAC 30 2.73 Gary Payton SEA 35 4.58
Sarunas Marciulionis SAC 28 1.52 Sam Perkins SEA 26 1.78
Olden Polynice SAC 26 -2.59 Nate McMillan SEA 22 4.51
Tyus Edney SAC 20 -1.58 Vincent Askew SEA 17 -1.76
Lionel Simmons SAC 10 -0.75 Ervin Johnson SEA 15 -1.12
Team 2.36 Frank Brickowski SEA 8 -3.40
Team 11.10

11. April 29, 1995: Lakers 84 @ Sonics 82 (Sonics xW% = 89.0%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Nick Van Exel LAL 48 0.34 Gary Payton SEA 45 4.25
Vlade Divac LAL 46 5.32 Shawn Kemp SEA 38 3.24
Cedric Ceballos LAL 42 -0.17 Detlef Schrempf SEA 38 3.86
Anthony Peeler LAL 28 -2.58 Sam Perkins SEA 35 1.85
Elden Campbell LAL 27 -0.78 Nate McMillan SEA 32 4.64
Eddie Jones LAL 26 2.73 Vincent Askew SEA 20 -1.29
Sam Bowie LAL 12 -2.65 Kendall Gill SEA 19 -0.20
George Lynch LAL 11 -3.79 Ervin Johnson SEA 13 -5.10
Team 3.30 Team 12.05

10. April 24, 2005: Nuggets 93 @ Spurs 87 (Spurs xW% = 89.3%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Marcus Camby DEN 40 3.08 Tony Parker SAS 39 1.16
Kenyon Martin DEN 38 1.44 Manu Ginobili SAS 37 8.04
Andre Miller DEN 37 0.41 Tim Duncan SAS 35 8.02
Carmelo Anthony DEN 31 -0.37 Nazr Mohammed SAS 34 -1.31
Earl Boykins DEN 26 -0.74 Bruce Bowen SAS 33 -1.09
Greg Buckner DEN 19 2.77 Robert Horry SAS 24 2.93
DerMarr Johnson DEN 18 -0.54 Brent Barry SAS 19 1.71
Nene Hilario DEN 17 0.78 Beno Udrih SAS 9 -1.31
Wesley Person DEN 14 -2.43 Glenn Robinson SAS 6 -0.45
Team 3.85 Tony Massenburg SAS 4 -4.77
Team 12.75

9. May 6, 1998: Hornets 78 @ Bulls 76 (Bulls xW% = 89.7%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Anthony Mason CHH 40 2.38 Scottie Pippen CHI 41 5.93
Glen Rice CHH 37 -0.11 Dennis Rodman CHI 41 0.63
Vlade Divac CHH 36 4.89 Michael Jordan CHI 40 6.81
B.J. Armstrong CHH 28 -1.04 Steve Kerr CHI 26 -1.15
Dell Curry CHH 22 -1.89 Toni Kukoc CHI 25 1.63
Bobby Phills CHH 22 -0.11 Luc Longley CHI 25 -1.67
David Wesley CHH 21 0.75 Ron Harper CHI 19 1.82
J.R. Reid CHH 15 -2.75 Scott Burrell CHI 14 3.20
Donald Royal CHH 10 -4.78 Randy Brown CHI 4 -2.07
Matt Geiger CHH 5 1.53 Bill Wennington CHI 4 -6.66
Corey Beck CHH 4 -3.29 Jud Buechler CHI 1 -0.57
Team 2.40 Team 11.54

8. May 16, 1995: Lakers 98 @ Spurs 96 (Spurs xW% = 90.3%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Nick Van Exel LAL 53 0.34 David Robinson SAS 52 10.94
Cedric Ceballos LAL 46 -0.17 Avery Johnson SAS 50 -0.68
Vlade Divac LAL 43 5.32 Sean Elliott SAS 40 0.88
Elden Campbell LAL 41 -0.78 Dennis Rodman SAS 35 2.29
Eddie Jones LAL 35 2.73 Doc Rivers SAS 33 3.08
Anthony Peeler LAL 21 -2.58 Vinny Del Negro SAS 19 -0.64
Sam Bowie LAL 16 -2.65 Chuck Person SAS 17 -1.31
George Lynch LAL 10 -3.79 J.R. Reid SAS 12 -1.38
Team 3.18 Terry Cummings SAS 7 -3.46
Team 12.77

7. May 5, 1992: Knicks 94 @ Bulls 89 (Bulls xW% = 90.7%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Patrick Ewing NYK 44 5.70 Michael Jordan CHI 44 11.46
Xavier McDaniel NYK 42 -2.09 Horace Grant CHI 43 6.04
Anthony Mason NYK 32 -0.25 Scottie Pippen CHI 42 6.79
Gerald Wilkins NYK 28 -2.66 Bill Cartwright CHI 41 -4.51
Greg Anthony NYK 24 -1.50 John Paxson CHI 34 -3.78
Mark Jackson NYK 24 2.72 B.J. Armstrong CHI 16 -3.90
John Starks NYK 24 3.61 Scott Williams CHI 9 1.71
Charles Oakley NYK 16 0.25 Craig Hodges CHI 5 -6.52
Kiki Vandeweghe NYK 4 -2.79 Cliff Levingston CHI 4 -0.11
James Donaldson NYK 2 -3.52 Will Perdue CHI 2 -1.10
Team 3.80 Team 13.61

6. May 2, 1993: Lakers 86 @ Suns 81 (Suns xW% = 91.7%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Sedale Threatt LAL 43 1.20 Charles Barkley PHO 44 10.19
A.C. Green LAL 42 0.71 Kevin Johnson PHO 44 0.42
Elden Campbell LAL 41 -1.37 Dan Majerle PHO 40 2.88
Vlade Divac LAL 34 4.42 Tom Chambers PHO 31 -1.30
Byron Scott LAL 30 -1.77 Richard Dumas PHO 24 1.51
James Worthy LAL 24 -2.38 Mark West PHO 23 -2.51
Tony Smith LAL 18 -0.46 Danny Ainge PHO 20 1.05
Doug Christie LAL 5 -0.56 Oliver Miller PHO 10 0.50
James Edwards LAL 3 -4.54 Cedric Ceballos PHO 4 0.28
Team 0.85 Team 11.40

5. April 26, 1998: T-Wolves 98 @ Sonics 93 (Sonics xW% = 92.2%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Stephon Marbury MIN 44 0.06 Vin Baker SEA 43 1.55
Anthony Peeler MIN 41 1.34 Gary Payton SEA 43 5.75
Terry Porter MIN 41 1.14 Hersey Hawkins SEA 42 3.09
Sam Mitchell MIN 35 -0.91 Detlef Schrempf SEA 40 1.95
Tom Hammonds MIN 33 -3.20 Greg Anthony SEA 24 1.51
Kevin Garnett MIN 32 4.09 Nate McMillan SEA 20 2.59
MicheAl Williams MIN 14 -0.95 Sam Perkins SEA 12 0.54
Team 1.76 Jerome Kersey SEA 10 0.25
Dale Ellis SEA 6 -1.49
Team 12.70

4. June 6, 2001: Sixers 107 @ Lakers 101 (Lakers xW% = 92.4%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Allen Iverson PHI 52 7.47 Kobe Bryant LAL 52 5.11
Aaron McKie PHI 51 1.47 Shaquille O'Neal LAL 52 9.99
Dikembe Mutombo PHI 44 1.75 Rick Fox LAL 44 0.35
Tyrone Hill PHI 40 -2.95 Horace Grant LAL 27 -1.09
Eric Snow PHI 31 0.68 Robert Horry LAL 27 -0.12
Raja Bell PHI 19 -14.85 Derek Fisher LAL 23 1.44
Matt Geiger PHI 14 -5.01 Tyronn Lue LAL 22 -5.05
Jumaine Jones PHI 11 -1.76 Brian Shaw LAL 18 -1.78
Todd MacCulloch PHI 2 -1.66 Team 12.41
Kevin Ollie PHI 1 -2.46
Team 1.25

3. May 4, 1992: Celtics 104 @ Cavaliers 98 (Cavs xW% = 92.7%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Ed Pinckney BOS 43 3.04 Larry Nance CLE 42 5.60
Robert Parish BOS 42 0.49 Brad Daugherty CLE 37 5.64
Reggie Lewis BOS 39 2.21 Mark Price CLE 37 4.73
John Bagley BOS 35 -2.43 Hot Rod Williams CLE 36 4.56
Kevin Gamble BOS 32 -0.06 Mike Sanders CLE 29 0.87
Kevin McHale BOS 30 -0.25 John Battle CLE 25 -6.41
Sherman Douglas BOS 13 -1.66 Craig Ehlo CLE 23 0.60
Joe Kleine BOS 6 -2.27 Steve Kerr CLE 11 -0.71
Team 2.24 Team 13.63

2. April 30, 1995: Celtics 99 @ Magic 92 (Magic xW% = 93.2%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Dee Brown BOS 48 2.04 Shaquille O'Neal ORL 40 8.95
Sherman Douglas BOS 42 0.64 Horace Grant ORL 39 1.53
Dominique Wilkins BOS 39 -0.41 Anfernee Hardaway ORL 38 3.22
Dino Radja BOS 37 0.60 Nick Anderson ORL 37 3.06
Pervis Ellison BOS 23 -1.83 Dennis Scott ORL 28 1.09
Derek Strong BOS 19 -3.28 Donald Royal ORL 20 -2.66
Eric Montross BOS 17 -3.17 Brian Shaw ORL 15 -2.92
Xavier McDaniel BOS 9 -3.30 Jeff Turner ORL 9 -2.67
Greg Minor BOS 6 -1.61 Tree Rollins ORL 8 -4.75
Team -1.39 Anthony Bowie ORL 6 -3.85
Team 10.45

1. April 30, 2003: Blazers 103 @ Mavericks 99 (Mavs xW% = 93.3%)

Player Team MP SRSPM Player Team MP SRSPM
Bonzi Wells POR 45 1.00 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 48 7.88
Zach Randolph POR 40 -0.55 Michael Finley DAL 33 0.55
Dale Davis POR 37 0.75 Raef LaFrentz DAL 33 1.66
Rasheed Wallace POR 33 2.77 Nick Van Exel DAL 33 -1.45
Damon Stoudamire POR 28 -2.59 Steve Nash DAL 32 2.38
Ruben Patterson POR 18 -1.01 Shawn Bradley DAL 31 4.00
Scottie Pippen POR 16 1.78 Eduardo Najera DAL 30 1.36
Jeff McInnis POR 9 -6.42 Team 13.43
Arvydas Sabonis POR 9 5.80
Antonio Daniels POR 5 -0.84
Team 1.47

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9 Responses to “The 50 Biggest Playoff Upsets, 1991-2009”

  1. Raj Says:

    Great post. Is there a way you can extend this to see which individual teams had the most unlikely playoff runs?

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    Thanks! Sure, I can extend the same method to calculating each team's probability of winning each series, and then see which team won more series than it "should have".

  3. Jason J Says:

    That would be a very cool thing to see - the "overachievers" list.

  4. DSMok1 Says:

    Nice work, Neil. Why again did you drop the other factors in SPM? I've been running a game-by-game SPM analysis on OU Hoops.com using the model with height and age. Did you drop them because they do not reflect actual court performance? That might be reasonable...

    Could some of these results be biased because the bad teams were not playing their stars the whole time (because they were winning) while the losing teams were leaving their starters in?

    When I did the Statistical Plus/Minus for the NCAA last year, I summed to Ken Pomeroy's efficiency differential, which should be about the same as a SRS for college (right?)

  5. Neil Paine Says:

    I dropped them because they were statistically insignificant from zero. In fact, if you look at the updated regression, A/40 and DR/40 also have p-values that suggest their coefficients are nothing but a random fluctuation from a true coefficient of zero, but since Prof. Rosenbaum apparently found them significant in his original model, I decided to leave them in for now. I still don't see how he got an R^2 of almost 0.44, since the highest I can get using publicly-available APM estimates is 0.31, but I suppose that's another issue for another day.

  6. Neil Paine Says:

    Could some of these results be biased because the bad teams were not playing their stars the whole time (because they were winning) while the losing teams were leaving their starters in?

    That's a good point, but unfortunately we don't have play-by-play and therefore can't say who was on the floor in the highest-"leverage" moments. That said, since these are playoff games, I think it's fairly safe to assume most teams played to maximize their point differential and didn't pull starters.

    When I did the Statistical Plus/Minus for the NCAA last year, I summed to Ken Pomeroy's efficiency differential, which should be about the same as a SRS for college (right?)

    Yes. In fact, SRS doesn't explicitly take into account pace like Kenpom's adjusted efficiency differential does, so I'd say his efficiency differential is the "more correct" metric to sum to (since SPM was regressed on efficiency differential and not per-game point diff.).

  7. DSMok1 Says:

    @ #5 Neil

    I noticed that, also, when I ran some SPM numbers myself. Perhaps Rosenbaum's system was over-parametrized since he had relatively few data points. Did he run the regression over all 420 players with >250 minutes? He has results for 420 players. His notes stated that "The regression is weighted by minutes played with the 2003-04 season counting twice as much as the 2002-03 season." That adds even more error to the regression.

    How exactly did you run your regression? Did you use 1-year APM's? Those are really noisy, but probably reasonable for this usage since the errors should even out. Since you have what, 6 years of data, the outliers should not over-influence the regression.

  8. DSMok1 Says:

    Oh... did you ever figure out how to calculate the standard error for the SPM for each player? I was utterly puzzled how Rosenbaum got those numbers. The statistics involved seems to be a bit beyond me. There was a thread over on APBR about that term; I don't know if there was ever a resolution.

  9. Jake @ Jump Higher Says:

    Nice blog you have here. I agree with number 1 April 30, 2003 Mavericks vs Blazers, I didn't see it coming, lucky I didn't bet on that game.