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2010 APBRmetric All-Stars

Posted by Neil Paine on January 21, 2010

Tonight's the night we'll finally know this year's All-Star starters -- and if the balloting updates are any indication, we'll be seeing monsieurs Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson occupying 2 of the coveted slots after a great deal of, um, questionable fan support. Even Ray Allen, himself going through a down year by conventional numbers, spoke out about how messed up it is for the fans to vote in players who have no business being All-Stars. On the other hand, I have no doubt that this situation will be magically rectified by the league before tonight's announcement. I mean, you don't really think they'd let McGrady start, do you? How embarrassing would that be?

Whatever happens, everybody's weighing in with their opinions on the real All-Star teams (you know, the players who are having the best seasons in 2009-10, not the players with the biggest fan bases in China), so I thought I'd throw out what the rosters would be if we were going strictly by the numbers...

(Note: Players had to play a minimum of 597 minutes to qualify for rate stats.)

Win Shares

Eastern Conference Western Conference
Guards Guards
Dwyane Wade* MIA 5.70 Brandon Roy* POR 6.39
Rajon Rondo* BOS 5.43 Chris Paul* NOH 6.32
Mo Williams CLE 4.43 Kobe Bryant LAL 6.24
Joe Johnson ATL 4.34 Steve Nash PHO 5.83
Forwards Forwards
LeBron James* CLE 10.43 Kevin Durant* OKC 7.29
Chris Bosh* TOR 6.71 Tim Duncan* SAS 6.33
Gerald Wallace CHA 6.48 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 6.28
David Lee NYK 5.53 Carmelo Anthony DEN 5.35
Paul Pierce BOS 5.01 Zach Randolph MEM 5.34
Josh Smith ATL 4.85 Centers
Centers Nene* DEN 5.63
Dwight Howard* ORL 6.19 Marc Gasol MEM 5.17
Al Horford ATL 5.71 Andrew Bynum LAL 5.14

Adjusted +/-

Eastern Conference Western Conference
Guards Guards
Dwyane Wade* MIA 24.72 Chris Paul* NOH 16.66
Raymond Felton* CHA 13.70 Steve Nash* PHO 14.66
Charlie Bell MIL 9.91 Kobe Bryant LAL 12.92
Vince Carter ORL 6.77 Andre Miller POR 11.50
Forwards Marcus Thornton NOH 11.34
LeBron James* CLE 25.08 Forwards
Luol Deng* CHI 16.82 Chris Andersen* DEN 23.26
Anderson Varejao CLE 14.87 Dirk Nowitzki* DAL 16.63
Gerald Wallace CHA 13.43 Kevin Durant OKC 15.12
Danny Granger IND 12.96 Ryan Gomes MIN 13.64
Centers Centers
Ben Wallace* DET 13.12 Nene* DEN 20.46
Brendan Haywood WAS 12.50 Marc Gasol MEM 15.23
Dwight Howard ORL 11.92 Chris Kaman LAC 11.10

Statistical Plus/Minus

Eastern Conference Western Conference
Guards Guards
Dwyane Wade* MIA 9.11 Chris Paul* NOH 9.23
Rajon Rondo* BOS 5.08 Manu Ginobili* SAS 7.49
Gilbert Arenas-x WAS 4.03 Kobe Bryant LAL 6.53
Stephen Jackson CHA 2.45 Brandon Roy POR 5.89
Vince Carter ORL 2.31 Jason Kidd DAL 5.60
Forwards Chauncey Billups DEN 5.28
LeBron James* CLE 13.15 Forwards
Josh Smith* ATL 6.41 Tim Duncan* SAS 7.44
Gerald Wallace CHA 5.16 Kevin Love* MIN 6.33
Chris Bosh TOR 5.04 Kevin Durant OKC 5.87
Danny Granger IND 4.39 Carmelo Anthony DEN 5.34
Paul Pierce BOS 4.38 Centers
Centers Marcus Camby* LAC 5.93
Dwight Howard* ORL 6.20 Nene DEN 4.60
Rasheed Wallace BOS 4.10

PER

Eastern Conference Western Conference
Guards Guards
Dwyane Wade* MIA 26.70 Chris Paul* NOH 25.89
Rajon Rondo* BOS 19.83 Steve Nash* PHO 23.88
Joe Johnson ATL 19.14 Kobe Bryant LAL 23.38
Gilbert Arenas-x WAS 18.92 Brandon Roy POR 22.64
Luke Ridnour MIL 18.30 Forwards
Forwards Tim Duncan* SAS 27.33
LeBron James* CLE 31.18 Carmelo Anthony* DEN 24.60
Chris Bosh* TOR 26.58 Kevin Durant OKC 24.45
Josh Smith ATL 21.67 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 23.29
David Lee NYK 21.37 Kevin Love MIN 23.16
Kevin Garnett BOS 20.31 Pau Gasol LAL 22.92
Centers Centers
Dwight Howard* ORL 22.83 Zach Randolph* MEM 22.40
Brook Lopez NJN 21.65 Amare Stoudemire PHO 20.46
Al Horford ATL 19.86

To summarize, the consensus of the numbers is that the following players need to be considered All-Stars (mentioned on at least 3 of the 4 teams above):

Chris Bosh, Toronto; Dwight Howard, Orlando; Dwyane Wade, Miami; Gerald Wallace, Charlotte; Josh Smith, Atlanta; LeBron James, Cleveland; Rajon Rondo, Boston; Brandon Roy, Portland; Carmelo Anthony, Denver; Chris Paul, New Orleans; Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas; Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City; Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers; Nene, Denver; Steve Nash, Phoenix; Tim Duncan, San Antonio.

That's 16 of the 24 available slots, and the remaining 8 should probably (mentioned on at least 2 teams) be filled by some combination of:

Al Horford, Atlanta; Danny Granger, Indiana; David Lee, New York; Joe Johnson, Atlanta; Paul Pierce, Boston; Vince Carter, Orlando; Kevin Love, Minnesota; Marc Gasol, Memphis; Zach Randolph, Memphis.

We'll soon see how well the actual teams reflect the All-APBRmetric teams at the midway point of the 2010 season.

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10 Responses to “2010 APBRmetric All-Stars”

  1. Jason J Says:

    So from these results the starters would be (roughly):

    East
    G - Wade
    G - Rondo
    F - James
    F - Bosh
    C - Howard

    (reasonable)

    West
    G - Paul
    G - Nash
    F - Duncan
    F - Anthony / Nowitski / Durant (tough to separate)
    C - M. Gasol

    (not as reasonable)

    I think Kobe's got to be there. Lakers are playing too well. Duncan should be in at C to open up an F spot for Melo, Dirk, and KD to fight over.

  2. John Doe Says:

    Yeah, Duncan's being listed as a forward really screwed things up, and it's totally ludicrous. The only three big men getting significant minutes for the Spurs are 6'10" Matt Bonner, 6'9" Antonio McDyess, and 6'6" Dejuan Blair. How is Duncan not their center? Were Duncan listed at center, Amare could come of the bench like he ought to be, and Dirk and Melo could both start. It's the less publicized All-Star Game screwup, but a screwup nonetheless.

    It's nice to see Kevin Love get some recognition. Wolves fans are just hoping he won't be snubbed and kept out of the Rookie/Sophomore game again this year.

  3. Neil Paine Says:

    Actually, Nene would be the center for the West over M. Gasol. And you could easily have Kobe start over Nash, since he was one of the only players that all 4 systems considered an All-Star. So you'd have:

    G - Paul
    G - Bryant
    F - Durant (mentioned 4 times)
    F - Duncan
    C - Nene

  4. Giorgio Says:

    And what about Deron Williams???
    He deserve to be an all star for me.

  5. Travis Says:

    1. LeBron James is miles ahead of everybody, even Chris Paul. Amazing. If he continues this stretch of play for another three years, he'll have just about matched MJ's statistical peak - with a playoff run last year that was beyond anything ever seen.

    2. I don't really mind the All-Star game being a popularity contest. The game is never played with playoff intensity, so there's no reason to watch the game other than having fans' favorite players in the game. If we want the game to grow, we're going to have to live with people in China wanting to watch their favorite players. I'm far more upset over the end of the year awards being treated like a popularity contest than an exhibition game in the middle of the season getting filled with unworthy players.

  6. Jared Ras Says:

    Wow, you called it. McGrady was bumped by Steve Nash!

    Regarding Duncan, he is announced as a PF even though he plays up. I went to a game SA @ MIL where they announced Dejuan Blair as the starting C; of course, Duncan did the jump ball and defended Andrew Bogut. I'm just saying, whoever fills out the roster wants Tim Duncan to have "PF" next to his name.

  7. Jason J Says:

    Neil - Good call. I didn't even see Nene's name because it's not linked. My eye just jumped right over it.

  8. Neil Paine Says:

    I think it happened because I didn't say "Nene Hilario", so the linkify tool didn't know to put the link in. I'll get that fixed.

  9. Mike G Says:

    Should a WS ranking be adjusted for the number of games a team has played?
    If the Suns have played 44 G, and the Warriors 41, then equivalent players would have 7% more WS with Phx.

  10. Neema Says:

    If you fix the outdated positioning of the NBA, and go with something I (and Hollinger) suggested, 1 PG, 2 Wings, and 2 Bigs (and 1 PG, 2 Wings, 2 Bigs, and 2 extra for subs), what would you get?

    West Starters:
    WS: Paul, Roy, Durant, Nowitski, Duncan
    A+/-: Paul, Bryant, Durant, Andersen, Nene
    S+/-: Paul, Ginobili, Bryant, Love, Duncan
    PER: Paul, Anthony, Durant, Nowitski, Duncan
    Consensus(?): Paul, Bryant, Durant, Nowitski, Duncan (would anyone argue with this?)

    East Starters:
    WS: Rondo, Wallace, James, Bosh, Howard
    A+/-: Felton, Wade, James, Varejao, B. Wallace
    S+/-: Rondo, Wade, James, Josh Smith, Howard
    PER: Rondo, Wade, James, Bosh, Howard
    Consensus: Rondo, Wade, James, Bosh, Howard

    Those seem good to me.