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Layups: Simmons’ Trade Value List

Posted by Neil Paine on February 16, 2010

It's an annual rite of passage for the Sports Guy, ranking the top "trade values" in the NBA from 1-40. This year, he breaks it into multiple parts: Part 1 and Part 2. Do I agree with all of it? Of course not. But I definitely appreciate the effort, and it's a fun read no matter what.

5 Responses to “Layups: Simmons’ Trade Value List”

  1. P Middy Says:

    Reading about the type of surgery Paul had made me very, very sad. I hope that's Simmon's usual level of hyperbole being applied to the situation.

  2. Romain Says:

    How realistic is it when Simmons says that Kobe could catch Kareem's all-time scoring record?

    Right now he has 25,246 pts. Let's assume he scores 750 pts by the end of the season to make it to roughly 26,000 pts. Then there's still more than 12,000 pts to go, which means he would have to play 6 more years averaging 25 ppg without getting injured.

    Which means he could make it by averaging let's say 27 ppg in 2010-11 & 2011-12, then 25 ppg in 2012-13 & 2013-14, and 23 ppg in 2014-15 & 2015-16.

    - this assumes he stays injury-free for 6 more years and there's no lock-out 2 years from now
    - could he really average 23 ppg in 2015-16 at age 37 in his 20th season? Both Kareem and Karl Malone were in that scoring range around 37, but for a shooting guard that's a long way to go. Especially when you factor in the fact that he started in the NBA at only 18 so he will have an awful lot of mileage at 37.

    So I don't really see that happen unless Kobe plays until almost 40... which I don't really see happen either because at this age he would have to settle for not being the alpha dog on his team anymore (at least if he were to play on a playoff team).

    I definitely see him breaking the 30,000 pts mark, and possibly making it to 3rd all-time above Wilt (31,419) and MJ (32,292), but I think Kobe outscoring Kareem or even Karl Malone is too much of a stretch

  3. P Middy Says:

    I don't think there's any doubt Kobe could keep his seasonal scoring average above 20-23 well into his late 30s. Especially now that he's got serious post game (49% at the beginning of the season). The doubts definitely come in when you think about mileage and durability. And if he's really close but needs another season or two, I do think he'd be willing to be the old guy coming off the bench to drop 15 on a bunch of young knuckleheads if it meant getting the most career points ever. I don't think he could stomach doing it on a losing team though. He could be that "push the young team over-the-top piece" in 5 or 6 years.

  4. Romain Says:

    P Middy wrote "I do think he'd be willing to be the old guy coming off the bench to drop 15 on a bunch of young knuckleheads if it meant getting the most career points ever"

    I don't know about that...
    Karl Malone was basically in that position in 2004... In a sense he even had more to gain from it than Kobe would: because he never won an NBA title, breaking the all-time scoring record would have been Malone's greatest career achievement. And yet, with just 1,460 points to go, it seems he decided it was not worth the extra season or two he needed.

    I guess it comes down to how self-centered Kobe is... One thing I'm sure of though, is that he REALLY wants to get more career points than MJ!

    Anyway that'll be interesting to follow over the next few years!

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