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2009-10 APBRmetric Awards

Posted by Neil Paine on April 14, 2010

Since I looked at the 2010 APBRmetric All-Stars back in January, we might as well name the end-of season APBRmetric Award Winners as well...

Most Valuable Player
Win Shares Leader: LeBron James, Cleveland
Adjusted +/- Leader: Dwight Howard, Orlando
Statistical +/- Leader: LeBron James
PER Leader: LeBron James

And the award goes to... LeBron James.

Rookie of the Year
Win Shares Leader: Tyreke Evans, Sacramento
Adjusted +/- Leader: Stephen Curry, Golden State
Statistical +/- Leader: Tyreke Evans
PER Leader: Rodrigue Beaubois, Dallas

And the award goes to... Tyreke Evans.

Coach of the Year
Wins Above Expected leaders, based on John Hollinger's formula:

Coach Team W L WPct pyth_Y-1 pyth_Y-2 xWPct WAE
Brooks OKC 49 32 0.605 0.299 0.231 0.332 22.1
Hollins MEM 40 41 0.494 0.312 0.302 0.356 11.1
Spoelstra MIA 46 35 0.568 0.509 0.220 0.435 10.8
Skiles MIL 45 36 0.556 0.462 0.277 0.425 10.6
Woodson ATL 52 29 0.642 0.556 0.436 0.512 10.5
Brown CLE 61 20 0.753 0.787 0.487 0.640 9.1
Brown CHA 44 37 0.543 0.453 0.350 0.439 8.4
Carlisle DAL 54 27 0.667 0.568 0.656 0.573 7.6
Gentry PHO 53 28 0.654 0.562 0.659 0.571 6.8
Dunleavy LAC 21 28 0.429 0.225 0.260 0.303 6.2
Karl DEN 53 29 0.646 0.614 0.617 0.586 4.9
Van Gundy ORL 58 23 0.716 0.723 0.680 0.656 4.8
Sloan UTA 53 28 0.654 0.590 0.719 0.599 4.4
McMillan POR 50 31 0.617 0.684 0.464 0.583 2.8
Jackson LAL 57 24 0.704 0.739 0.725 0.676 2.3
Del Negro CHI 40 41 0.494 0.490 0.392 0.468 2.1
Popovich SAS 50 31 0.617 0.635 0.673 0.611 0.5
Triano TOR 39 42 0.481 0.403 0.601 0.477 0.4
Barrise NJN 0 2 0.000 0.415 0.327 0.414 -0.8
Scott NOH 3 6 0.333 0.557 0.680 0.573 -2.2
Hughes LAC 7 25 0.219 0.225 0.260 0.303 -2.7
Westphal SAC 25 57 0.305 0.237 0.424 0.350 -3.7
D'Antoni NYK 29 52 0.358 0.415 0.284 0.404 -3.7
Saunders WAS 25 56 0.309 0.260 0.488 0.377 -5.5
O'Brien IND 32 49 0.395 0.463 0.453 0.470 -6.1
Frank NJN 0 16 0.000 0.415 0.327 0.414 -6.6
Rivers BOS 50 31 0.617 0.747 0.818 0.703 -7.0
Adelman HOU 42 39 0.519 0.641 0.667 0.612 -7.6
Bower NOH 33 39 0.458 0.557 0.680 0.573 -8.3
Nelson GSW 25 56 0.309 0.384 0.570 0.459 -12.2
Jordan PHI 27 54 0.333 0.503 0.515 0.505 -13.9
Vandeweghe NJN 12 51 0.190 0.415 0.327 0.414 -14.1
Rambis MIN 15 66 0.185 0.335 0.277 0.362 -14.3
Kuester DET 26 55 0.321 0.482 0.751 0.554 -18.9

And the award goes to... Scott Brooks.

Most Improved Player
Biggest Win Shares Improvement: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
Biggest SPM Improvement: Channing Frye, Phoenix
Biggest PER Improvement: Donte Greene, Sacramento

And the award goes to... Kevin Durant.

Sixth Man of the Year
Win Shares Leader: Manu Ginobili, San Antonio
Adjusted +/- Leader: Chris Andersen, Denver
Statistical +/- Leader: Manu Ginobili
PER Leader: Manu Ginobili

And the award goes to... Manu Ginobili.

Defensive Player of the Year
Defensive Win Shares Leader: Dwight Howard, Orlando
On/Off DRtg Leader: Amir Johnson, Toronto
Defensive Points Added Leader: Dwight Howard
Defensive Rating Leader: Dwight Howard

And the award goes to... Dwight Howard.

Worst Scorer (Lowest Pts/36 MP)
The award goes to... Fabricio Oberto, Wizards.

Worst Ballhander (Lowest Pure Point Rating)
The award goes to... Tyson Chandler, Charlotte.

Worst Passer (Lowest Assist %)
The award goes to... Robin Lopez, Suns.

Worst Shooter (Lowest TS%)
The award goes to... DeShawn Stevenson, Washington & Dallas.

Uncle Cliffy Memorial Worst Rebounder for his Size Award (Lowest TRB%, 6'10" or taller)
The award goes to... Rashard Lewis, Orlando.

Most Disappointing Rookie
The award goes to... Terrence Williams, New Jersey.

Worst Defensive Player of the Year
Highest Defensive Rating: Jose Calderon, Toronto
Worst On/Off-Court DRtg: Jeff Green, Oklahoma City
Lowest DPA: Earl Boykins, Washington

And the award goes to... Jose Calderon.

Desmond Mason Memorial Least Valuable Player Award
Fewest Win Shares: Sasha Pavlovic, Minnesota
Worst Adjusted +/-: Juwan Howard, Portland
Worst Statistical +/-: Josh Powell, L.A. Lakers
Lowest PER: Quinton Ross, Dallas & Washington

And the award goes to... Sasha Pavlovic.

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19 Responses to “2009-10 APBRmetric Awards”

  1. Johnny Twisto Says:

    What am I missing about Jeff Green's candidacy for worst defender of the year? Is that saying the team's defensive rating was so much better when he was off the court than on? I didn't study the website you linked to, but on this one, his DRtg is a respectable 105, same as the team's overall rating, and he is the at the median of all players on the Thunder.

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    Yes, it means the Thunder defense was more than 10 points/100 poss. better when he sat on the bench than when he played.

  3. dbm Says:

    No All-NBA, All-Rooke or All-defensive teams?
    Otherwise they look accurate.

  4. J.J. Says:

    What did you use to calculate the Most Disappointing Rookie? Does it have something to do with Williams' achievement relative to his draft position? I don't know what the word "disappointing" suggests in regards to calculating factors.

  5. Johnny Twisto Says:

    But Neil, it's hard to see how that is possible, when the Thunder's overall defensive rating is about the same as Green's (104.5 to 105), and his DRtg is smack in the middle of all the DRtgs on the team. I'm obviously dense about this, can you explain what I am missing?

  6. Neil Paine Says:

    That one was a little subjective -- I was going to do "worst rookie", so I looked for the fewest WS by a 1st-year player:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=oUEol

    Williams and Earl Clark were tied with -0.3, but Clark was the 14th pick and Williams was the 11th, so I decided to go with "most disappointing" since he was picked higher. Jonny Flynn wasn't much better, though (0.1 WS), and he was picked 6th overall... And if you really wanted to get technical, the most disappointing rookie of all was Blake Griffin.

  7. Neil Paine Says:

    Individual DRtg, as we calculate it here on BBR, is Dean Oliver's box score-based estimation of how many points per 100 possessions the player allowed. The DRtg you see at BasketballValue, on the other hand, is derived from play-by-play logs and is the team's pts allowed/100 poss. when he's on the floor. So they're measuring two different things -- our DRtg does a better job of picking up on things like blocks, steals, & defensive rebounds, while BBValue's does a good job of catching the many aspects of defense the box score doesn't track.

  8. Anon Says:

    Personally, while I think that +/- is certainly useful information to have for these things, it provides some of the most unintuitive results out of any metric out there. Seeing Thabo Sefolosha on a list on worst defenders in the league (according to on-off DRtg) is a bit of an eyebrow-raiser, considering that by watching the Thunder games he is probably their best man-to-man defender. I recently read an article from Kevin Pelton here where he thought that Thabo was a 1st-team defender at his position: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1071

    Maybe they can pick on on some on those things on defense that box-score based metrics can't but if I had to do a smell test on what +/- suggests are the best players on the league on either sides of the ball without taking other things into consideration, I would probably be turned-off by using it for basketball analysis more than anything else out there.

  9. Caleb Says:

    Just a random observation that is only kind of releated - this is surely one of the best drafts for guards ever right? Or perhaps a better way to word it is that its one of the most guard-dominant classes ever.

    Evans, Collison, Curry, Thornton, Beaubois, Lawson, Jennings... all the top guys are guards except for DeJuan Blair. I'm curious to see how the all-rookie teams will turn out.

  10. Ray Says:

    Does Wins above Expected (for Coaches) reflect injuries? Not sure how else McMillan can be so low..

  11. Doobie Says:

    Can't trust any formulas that try to tell me that Thabo Sefolosha or Jeff Green are bad defenders

  12. Neil Paine Says:

    It's not really a formula, though -- it's more of a fact... Plain and simple, the Thunder play much better on defense when they aren't in the game. Now, there are circumstances that can influence this, notably the ability of a player's teammates and his backups, but facts are facts, and no team plays better defense when a player is sitting vs. when he plays than the Thunder do when Jeff Green is riding pine.

  13. JP Says:

    Got to admit, I like most of what I see here. Only exception I have (and know this wont be popoular with the consensus) is that of Brooks as COY.

    I know Hollingers method is trying to elminate opinion/bias out the equation but to just use previous winning percentage in the way he does as deducing the crucial "expected wins" figure misses out some big factors that coaches have to actually handle.

    Brooks may still be deserving the award (and should definitely be in the conversation)but theres now way Id accept that hes achieved so much more then expected then his peers.

    I mean, not only is he benefitting in this calculation by the 3-27 start he had at the start of last season but he hasnt had the injury problems that Skiles (Michael Redd) and McMilan (Oden, Przybilla etc) have had to deal with.

  14. Neil Paine Says:

    Agreed. The "expected wins" formula is very crude, and doesn't factor in injuries, team age, or a million other factors. I basically picked it because it's been around for a while, Hollinger came up with it, and I didn't really have time to create a better one of my own. Not an excuse, but that was the thought process involved... This summer, I'll have to look into developing better methods to evaluate coaches.

  15. Jason J Says:

    More on Anon # 8:

    adjusted +/-, as it regards defense, seems to be way too heavily linked to team performance to be any sort of measure of individual ability / contribution.

    I remember looking at the numbers back when Scott Skiles was coaching the Bulls, and most of their rotation players had terrific defensive +/- numbers - even guys like Gordon who really weren't that special at the defensive end.

    This season a lot of the Bucks look like terrific individual defenders based on +/-.

    Scheme just seems to be too determinate to really measure player by player contribution.

  16. AYC Says:

    Terrence Williams has played extremely well over the last 6 weeks or so; his play was a big reason the Nets won 5 of their last 12

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/gamelog?playerId=4019

  17. Mike G Says:

    ".. no team plays better defense when a player is sitting vs. when he plays than the Thunder do when Jeff Green is riding pine."

    But Okl is 8.6 Pts/100 possessions better than Toronto on defense.
    So being 10 pts worse (defensively) than an avg Okl 100 poss
    is equivalent to being 1.4 Pts/100 worse for Tor.
    Is this right?

    If so, any player with on/off worse than -1.4 for Tor would be worse than Jeff Green?
    (Assuming +/- actually measures something).

  18. Thezzaruz Says:

    Great work Neil, very interesting.

    But I have to ask, am I the only one that has quarrels with a 6th man award going to a player that has been a starter for almost a 1/3 of the season? And that has played his best and most important ball mainly in that 1/3?

    I like Manu and think he's been great but really, shouldn't 6th man come with a cut off point on starter minutes (or something)?

  19. Neil Paine Says:

    The criteria was (GS/G)<50%, which has typically been the cutoff point in the past for the 6th man Award.