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2010 Playoff Series Preview: Cleveland vs. Chicago

Posted by Neil Paine on April 16, 2010

2010 Playoffs Home2010 Playoff Previews

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

Coach: Mike Brown
SRS: 6.17 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.4 (25th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 111.2 (6th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 104.1 (7th of 30)

Four Factors

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Cleveland Cavaliers 0.532 3 0.134 16 0.251 21 0.246 7
Cleveland Cavaliers - Opp 0.482 3 0.123 24 0.228 2 0.218 13

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats)

Pos Player Age Ht Wt G MPG ORtg %Pos DRtg SPM T/Min %Pass %Shoot %Fouled %TO
SF/SG LeBron James 25 80 240 76 39.0 120.9 34.0 101.7 13.68 2.13 62 25 10 4
PG Mo Williams 27 73 185 69 34.2 111.7 22.3 106.7 1.34 1.44 65 26 5 5
SG Anthony Parker 34 78 215 81 28.3 113.3 11.8 106.7 -0.24 0.69 60 31 5 5
PF/C Anderson Varejao 27 82 230 76 28.5 123.2 13.8 101.7 2.22 0.56 43 39 12 6
PF/SF Antawn Jamison 33 80 223 25 32.4 108.2 22.5 106.6 1.24 0.79 26 55 14 5
PF J.J. Hickson 21 81 242 81 20.9 108.8 18.3 103.9 -4.13 0.59 24 53 13 9
SG/PG Delonte West 26 76 180 60 25.0 106.5 18.8 104.8 -0.46 1.21 64 24 6 5
C Shaquille O'Neal 37 85 325 53 23.4 104.0 24.8 101.8 0.41 1.00 39 38 15 9
PG Daniel Gibson 23 74 190 56 19.1 117.1 13.6 108.2 -1.49 0.72 55 36 5 5
SF Jamario Moon 29 80 205 61 17.2 114.0 12.3 102.8 0.27 0.57 49 42 6 4
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas 34 87 238 64 20.9 102.2 19.0 104.0 -3.79 0.65 33 51 9 7
PF/C Leon Powe 26 80 240 20 11.8 104.2 17.5 103.9 -9.07 0.47 0 45 45 10
SF Jawad Williams 26 81 218 54 13.7 103.9 14.5 107.9 -3.80 0.63 44 45 8 4
F Danny Green 22 78 210 20 5.8 100.3 18.6 103.0 -0.19 0.69 38 50 6 6
PG Sebastian Telfair 24 72 165 4 19.3 97.7 19.5 111.4 -3.81 1.56 72 20 3 5

Best Pure Shooter: Mo Williams
Best 3 Pt. Shooter: Daniel Gibson
Best Scorer: LeBron James
Best Rebounder: Shaquille O'Neal
Best Passer: LeBron James
Best Defender: Anderson Varejao
Who to Foul: Shaquille O'Neal (49.6%)

8. Chicago Bulls

Coach: Vinny Del Negro
SRS: -1.63 (18th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 93.1 (11th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 103.5 (27th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 105.3 (11th of 30)

Four Factors

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Chicago Bulls 0.477 28 0.133 15 0.266 16 0.217 21
Chicago Bulls - Opp 0.484 6 0.123 24 0.252 7 0.212 9

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats)

Pos Player Age Ht Wt G MPG ORtg %Pos DRtg SPM T/Min %Pass %Shoot %Fouled %TO
PG Derrick Rose 21 75 190 78 36.8 106.5 27.3 109.1 -1.31 1.61 60 30 6 5
SF Luol Deng 24 80 220 70 37.9 106.3 21.2 105.5 -0.30 0.85 37 45 12 6
PG/SG Kirk Hinrich 29 75 190 74 33.5 103.7 16.8 106.8 0.71 1.17 67 26 3 4
F Taj Gibson 24 81 225 82 26.9 104.5 17.2 103.1 -1.02 0.59 32 48 11 9
C Joakim Noah 24 83 232 64 30.1 111.6 18.4 101.0 2.69 0.83 49 33 11 7
C/PF Brad Miller 33 83 244 82 23.8 105.8 18.2 105.5 -0.05 0.91 51 33 10 6
F James Johnson 22 81 245 65 11.6 95.3 18.2 103.5 -1.28 0.81 46 34 10 10
SG Ronald Murray 30 76 190 29 23.4 98.1 22.5 106.3 -1.41 1.05 46 39 9 5
PF Hakim Warrick 27 81 219 28 19.0 109.8 21.5 106.3 -2.32 0.77 26 46 21 7
PG Acie Law 25 75 195 12 11.3 111.1 21.7 108.6 4.62 1.20 53 26 14 6
PG Jannero Pargo 30 73 175 63 13.1 89.3 23.5 107.5 -4.53 1.19 53 38 4 5
PF Chris Richard 25 81 270 18 12.4 96.0 10.9 102.9 -1.31 0.42 44 31 10 15
SG Devin Brown 31 77 220 11 8.5 97.1 19.1 111.3 -2.64 0.84 43 41 9 7
SF Joe Alexander 23 80 230 8 3.6 87.7 11.8 104.3 0.83 0.70 58 30 12 0

Best Pure Shooter: Jannero Pargo
Best 3 Pt. Shooter: Kirk Hinrich
Best Scorer: Derrick Rose
Best Rebounder: Joakim Noah
Best Passer: Derrick Rose
Best Defenders: Luol Deng, Joakim Noah
Who to Foul: Taj Gibson (64.6%)

Season Series

Cavs win series 4-1
Game 1 @ CLE - Cavs 96, Bulls 83
Game 2 @ CLE - Cavs 112, Bulls 102
Game 3 @ CHI - Bulls 108, Cavs 106
Game 4 @ CHI - Cavs 121, Bulls 98
Game 5 @ CLE - Cavs 96, Bulls 94
Picks Most Likely Second Opinion
SPM "True Skill" Projection says: Cavs in 4 Cavs in 5
I say: Cavs in 4 Cavs in 5

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11 Responses to “2010 Playoff Series Preview: Cleveland vs. Chicago”

  1. Mike G Says:

    "Best Pure Shooter: Mo Williams"
    What's this mean?
    player eFG% TS%
    LeBron .545 - .604
    Varejao .573 - .598
    Williams .535 - .580

    LeBron assists 170% as frequently as Mo and shoots 150% as often.
    AND he shoots better.

  2. Mike G Says:

    "Best Pure Shooter: Jannero Pargo"

    Never mind. It doesn't mean anything.
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=xer5N

  3. Neil Paine Says:

    Pure shooting touch/skill. Basically FT% skill, with some consideration given to 3-point%. If you lock LeBron and Mo Williams in a gym and make them shoot nothing but jumpers from 15 feet and out, Williams will make more. An inordinate amount of LBJ's high %'s come from inside drives, dunks, and layups, so eFG% and TS% aren't the most accurate barometers of pure shooting ability.

  4. Neil Paine Says:

    Pargo shot 93% from the line and is a career 86% shooter from the stripe, 35% from 3-point (he shot 39% a few years ago). He clearly is a talented pure shooter, it's just that he doesn't use it in a practical manner -- he thinks he's a scorer for some reason, so he does nothing but force low-percentage contested J's. He shouldn't be a 25% usage guy. He should be a shooting specialist.

  5. Mike G Says:

    "If you lock LeBron and Mo Williams in a gym and make them shoot nothing but jumpers from 15 feet and out, Williams will make more."

    I guess they also aren't guarding one another. In other words, nothing to do with NBA skills.

    If you lock Deshawn Stevenson in the gym by himself, he'll be the "best pure offensive rebounder" in the league, just because he's the worst shooter in the league, and he'll get all the rebounds. This, too, means nothing.

    I thought Reggie Miller was a great "pure shooter", because he could:
    - get a shot whenever one was needed
    - select the best shot available
    - hit a high % under any conditions
    etc.

    Saying a guy is a great shooter when he shoots a good shot, in spite of the fact he almost never shoots a good shot ... what is that saying?

  6. Neil Paine Says:

    It's a paradox. Shaq in his prime hit 60% of his shots, but that doesn't mean he was the best pure shooter in the league, it just meant he was a beast who was unguardable and could get a really high-percentage shot whenever he wanted. Make Shaq move outside a 7-foot radius of the basket, and he's no longer making anywhere near that percentage. But I think players' shooting percentages are a function of shot selection + pure shooting ability. Pargo is the anti-Shaq -- good pure ability, awful selection. Shaq has bad pure ability, but great selection, because he never shoots outside close-range, he never has to because you can't keep him from getting that shot. So it's on a coach to utilize the skills of his players optimally: you can practice and try to improve skills, but the return on investment is probably pretty low there -- Shaq is never going to be a great pure shooter even if that's all he practiced. You can reap more rewards by changing shot selection, and that's where Pargo fails. He should be in a role that maximizes his productivity, and his current role is obviously not that. Put him in a role where he's a shooting specialist, his eFG% will go up, and you'll be saying he's a good shooter. But he won't have changed at all from an ability standpoint, he'll just have changed his shot selection.

  7. Mike G Says:

    "Make Shaq move outside a 7-foot radius of the basket, and he's no longer making anywhere near that percentage. "
    I don't understand this. You are referring to the ability of players to make shots with no interference, as though that were "pure" shooting ability. You think Shaq, with no one guarding him, cannot make 60% of shots from 8 feet away? I suspect he makes close to 60% from twice that distance.

    Craig Hodges was the best 3-pt shooter in the league, including the year after he last played. He didn't miss a shot that year.

    Shaq's prime was distinctly the 2000 season. His .578 TS% was 10th in the league. After Mutombo, Miller, Barry, Mourning, Stockton, Hornacek, Patterson, Steve Smith, and Malone. All these guys were better than all the others at some range.

    Good luck convincing anyone the worst shooter on a team is the best 'pure shooter' on the team. An NBA "shot" is not something you might do once in a while, or something you did several years ago. It's what you can actually get.

  8. Neil Paine Says:

    Okay, I mixed the metaphors there. Shaq hit 60% of shots around the basket with defensive interference; he would not shoot anywhere near as well if (still with defensive interference) you moved him out of dunk/baby hook range.

    Moving on, how do you think players practice their shooting? It's not all scrimmages. The majority of drills are done with little or no interference. The difference between your performance there and your performance in games is "what you can get" vs. live competition, but a lot of that stems from choices -- the player's, the coach's, etc. A pure shooter in a scheme where they run him nothing but off-ball screens could shoot a high percentage, but if he takes those shots off the dribble instead, he won't make as many. "What you can get" can change based on your role and the system. Your talent level hasn't changed, but your eFG% sure has, and the Mike G's of the world suddenly laud your shooting ability.

  9. Mike G Says:

    Don't know any other Mike G's; but here in reverse chronology are players who have attempted as many FG (381) with the lowest eFG% since the previous entry.
    2010 Pargo Chi .396
    2008 C Brewer Min .382
    2005 McLeod Uta .373
    2003 Tskishvili Den .340
    1965 E Bryant NY .333
    1961 Loscutoff Bos .301
    etc.

    These are all historically-bad shooters. Not counting what they might have done outside of NBA games.

  10. Trev Says:

    Just so I understand it, is there a methodology for picking Best Pure Shooter, Best Defender, etc.? Or is this your opinion? I'm fine either way but I'd like to know.

  11. Neil Paine Says:

    Sure,

    Best Pure Shooter: Weighted 3-yr FT% (6-3-1) with the option to pick the better 3pt shooter if two teammates are close
    Best 3 Pt. Shooter: Weighted 3-yr 3P% with the option to pick the higher-volume 3PA shooter if two teammates are close
    Best Scorer: Pts/36 min
    Best Rebounder: TRB%
    Best Passer: Ast%
    Best Defender: Combo of On/Off DRtg +/- and Basketball on Paper DRtg
    Who to Foul: Worst FT% by rotation member (starter or backup)