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2010 Playoff Series Preview: Phoenix vs. Portland

Posted by Neil Paine on April 16, 2010

2010 Playoffs Home2010 Playoff Previews

3. Phoenix Suns

Coach: Alvin Gentry
SRS: 4.68 (6th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 95.3 (4th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 115.3 (1st of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.2 (23rd of 30)

Four Factors

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Phoenix Suns 0.546 1 0.136 17 0.276 7 0.240 10
Phoenix Suns - Opp 0.491 11 0.116 30 0.292 29 0.224 16

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats)

Pos Player Age Ht Wt G MPG ORtg %Pos DRtg SPM T/Min %Pass %Shoot %Fouled %TO
C/PF Amare Stoudemire 27 82 245 82 34.6 117.5 26.1 108.9 1.24 0.86 19 51 21 9
PG Steve Nash 35 75 195 81 32.8 120.8 26.1 113.8 1.19 2.46 78 15 3 4
SG/SF Jason Richardson 29 78 220 79 31.5 116.1 19.4 110.6 2.06 0.82 40 48 7 4
SF Grant Hill 37 80 225 81 30.0 114.2 16.6 109.9 0.42 0.87 53 33 10 5
PF/C Channing Frye 26 83 248 81 27.0 119.6 15.7 107.9 4.10 0.69 43 46 7 5
SF Jared Dudley 24 79 225 82 24.3 123.6 13.7 110.7 2.99 0.66 50 36 9 5
PG Goran Dragic 23 76 180 80 18.0 109.7 21.9 111.6 0.71 1.46 65 23 6 6
PF Louis Amundson 27 81 225 79 14.8 113.1 15.4 106.6 -0.09 0.52 29 45 17 9
SG/PG Leandro Barbosa 27 75 176 44 17.9 105.3 23.3 112.2 -1.25 1.05 44 43 7 5
C/PF Jarron Collins 31 83 255 34 7.6 93.4 10.0 111.6 -5.29 0.36 36 32 22 10
F Earl Clark 22 82 225 51 7.5 88.7 21.1 111.0 -7.81 0.83 38 46 9 7
F Taylor Griffin 23 79 238 8 4.0 87.0 16.1 113.3 -7.38 0.62 29 49 17 5
PF/C Dwayne Jones 26 83 250 2 3.5 0.0 108.3 -7.58 0.00

Best Pure Shooter: Steve Nash
Best 3 Pt. Shooters: Channing Frye, Jared Dudley
Best Scorer: Amare Stoudemire
Best Rebounder: Louis Amundson
Best Passer: Steve Nash
Best Defender: Louis Amundson
Who to Foul: Louis Amundson (54.5%)

6. Portland Trail Blazers

Coach: Nate McMillan
SRS: 3.18 (11th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 87.7 (30th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 110.8 (7th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 107.1 (15th of 30)

Four Factors

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Portland Trail Blazers 0.499 14 0.121 2 0.282 4 0.249 5
Portland Trail Blazers - Opp 0.502 17 0.133 15 0.252 7 0.219 14

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats)

Pos Player Age Ht Wt G MPG ORtg %Pos DRtg SPM T/Min %Pass %Shoot %Fouled %TO
PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge 24 83 240 78 37.5 113.2 22.1 106.7 0.84 0.90 38 47 11 4
PG Andre Miller 33 74 200 82 30.5 111.3 24.8 108.3 1.82 1.71 65 22 8 4
SG Rudy Fernandez 24 78 185 62 23.2 108.4 17.5 106.8 2.02 0.98 56 32 6 5
SF Nicolas Batum 21 80 200 37 24.8 127.2 15.5 106.6 3.52 0.69 43 45 7 5
C/PF Marcus Camby 35 83 220 23 31.2 111.7 14.3 100.7 5.22 0.79 61 28 6 5
SF/SG Martell Webster 23 79 210 82 24.5 110.7 16.7 107.8 -0.50 0.63 30 53 11 5
PF/C Juwan Howard 36 81 240 73 22.4 106.7 14.2 108.2 -3.98 0.56 41 43 7 8
PG Jerryd Bayless 21 75 200 74 17.6 107.7 24.8 110.0 -1.16 1.46 56 27 12 5
F Jeff Pendergraph 22 81 240 39 10.4 130.0 10.0 104.5 -3.30 0.26 6 65 17 12
PG Travis Diener 27 73 175 5 5.2 84.6 11.3 105.1 3.20 1.19 78 16 6 0
F Dante Cunningham 22 80 230 63 11.2 111.9 16.3 104.2 -1.78 0.53 23 61 12 4
G Patrick Mills 21 72 185 10 3.8 94.5 37.2 114.1 -6.61 1.77 46 38 10 6

Best Pure Shooter: Rudy Fernandez
Best 3 Pt. Shooters: Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster
Best Scorer: LaMarcus Aldridge
Best Rebounder: Marcus Camby
Best Passer: Andre Miller
Best Defender: Marcus Camby
Who to Foul: Marcus Camby (63.9%)

Season Series

Suns win series 4-2
Game 1 @ PHO - Blazers 105, Suns 100
Game 2 @ PHO - Suns 119, Blazers 90
Game 3 @ POR - Suns 108, Blazers 89
Game 4 @ POR - Blazers 96, Suns 87
Game 5 @ PHO - Suns 107, Blazers 88
Game 6 @ POR - Suns 99, Blazers 90
Picks Most Likely Second Opinion
SPM "True Skill" Projection says: Suns in 7 Blazers in 6
I say: Suns in 5 Suns in 6

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3 Responses to “2010 Playoff Series Preview: Phoenix vs. Portland”

  1. Jeremiah Says:

    Channing Frye's SPM is 3 points higher than Steve Nash's??

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    SPM really hates Nash's defense. It sees his lack of steals and blocks as indicative of a very negative defensive influence. It also sees assists as trivial, essentially meaningless in predicting how much impact a player has on the game. In Frye's favor are better rebounding, steals, and blocks, a better eFG%, more 3PA per minute (it loves players who space the floor), and more fouls (it sees fouls as indicative of defensive effort). This is not necessarily accurate (see Nash's actual +/- vs. Frye's), but you can explain why it comes out with that result.

  3. Jason J Says:

    "It sees his lack of steals and blocks as indicative of a very negative defensive influence."

    That's surprising to hear, because I recall Stockton being pretty far up the all-time SPM list. He's not much of a scorer or rebounder.