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2010 Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview: Cleveland vs. Boston

Posted by Neil Paine on April 30, 2010

2010 Playoffs Home2010 Playoff Previews

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

Coach: Mike Brown
SRS: 6.17 (2nd of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.4 (25th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 111.2 (6th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 104.1 (7th of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Chicago Bulls

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Cleveland Cavaliers 0.532 3 0.134 16 0.251 21 0.246 7
Cleveland Cavaliers - Opp 0.482 3 0.123 24 0.228 2 0.218 13

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):

Player Ag Ht Ps ORtg %P DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AR TR PR Fr 3t OR% DR% Bk% St%
LeBron James 25 80 SF 120.9 34.0 101.7 0.91 27.8 56.0 33.3 76.7 41.8 13.6 5.83 50.6 25.3 3.0 18.5 2.0 2.2
Mo Williams 27 73 PG 111.7 22.3 106.7 -0.89 16.9 45.2 42.9 89.4 25.0 17.3 3.07 23.2 43.4 1.5 8.6 0.7 1.6
Antawn Jamison 33 80 PF 108.2 22.5 106.6 0.37 18.7 49.8 34.4 64.7 6.1 8.8 -1.45 29.0 23.8 6.6 20.1 0.7 1.5
Delonte West 26 76 SG 106.5 18.8 104.8 0.16 12.9 47.1 32.5 81.0 20.0 16.8 2.71 32.6 17.7 2.4 10.6 1.4 1.9
Anthony Parker 34 78 SG 113.3 11.8 106.7 0.25 9.5 45.8 41.4 78.9 9.9 13.8 1.47 20.0 54.9 1.6 10.0 0.6 1.4
A. Varejao 27 82 PF 123.2 13.8 101.7 2.99 11.0 57.6 20.0 66.3 6.1 11.8 -0.42 37.5 1.1 10.9 20.4 2.4 1.7
Shaquille O'Neal 37 85 C 104.0 24.8 101.8 2.05 18.7 56.7 0.0 49.6 11.3 17.9 -4.17 48.8 0.2 9.4 24.0 3.9 0.6
Jamario Moon 29 80 SF 114.0 12.3 102.8 1.66 10.3 55.8 32.0 80.0 6.9 9.3 0.92 18.2 40.5 3.1 17.8 2.2 1.7
Z. Ilgauskas 34 87 C 102.2 19.0 104.0 1.26 12.9 44.1 47.8 74.3 5.6 13.0 -2.32 23.1 5.3 10.7 19.6 2.9 0.5
J.J. Hickson 21 81 PF 108.8 18.3 103.9 0.40 14.9 55.5 0.0 68.1 3.9 15.6 -3.86 31.2 0.2 8.2 19.5 1.8 1.1
Daniel Gibson 23 74 PG 117.1 13.6 108.2 -1.31 12.1 45.4 47.7 69.4 9.8 13.0 1.00 18.3 55.6 1.5 6.4 0.5 1.2
Jawad Williams 26 81 SF 103.9 14.5 107.9 -0.95 11.0 45.1 32.3 71.1 6.8 8.8 0.63 21.8 45.1 2.7 10.2 0.5 0.8

4. Boston Celtics

Coach: Doc Rivers
SRS: 3.37 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.6 (22nd of 30)
Offensive Rating: 107.7 (15th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.8 (5th of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Miami Heat

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Boston Celtics 0.522 5 0.145 27 0.228 28 0.248 6
Boston Celtics - Opp 0.487 9 0.149 2 0.262 12 0.251 24

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):

Player Ag Ht Ps ORtg %P DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AR TR PR Fr 3t OR% DR% Bk% St%
Rajon Rondo 23 73 PG 111.0 23.0 103.0 0.93 13.6 53.6 21.3 62.1 43.7 18.9 9.56 31.2 8.8 4.3 10.5 0.3 3.3
Paul Pierce 32 78 SF 114.0 23.0 104.8 0.32 19.6 49.7 41.4 85.2 15.1 15.7 -0.86 49.9 30.3 2.0 13.4 1.0 1.8
Ray Allen 34 77 SG 114.6 19.1 107.7 -0.99 16.9 55.6 36.3 91.3 12.3 12.5 0.39 26.0 41.0 2.0 8.8 0.7 1.2
Kevin Garnett 33 83 PF 112.4 21.5 101.0 2.01 17.5 52.3 20.0 83.7 15.7 11.9 1.08 28.6 0.6 4.8 24.8 2.2 1.7
Kendrick Perkins 25 82 C 105.2 17.8 101.5 2.85 13.4 60.5 0.0 58.2 6.0 22.6 -5.18 53.6 0.6 9.1 24.4 4.8 0.6
Glen Davis 24 81 PF 103.2 20.4 105.9 -0.18 13.3 44.4 0.0 69.6 5.9 14.6 -3.18 49.5 1.4 13.7 13.3 1.2 1.2
Tony Allen 28 76 SG 101.1 20.1 100.9 1.62 13.5 52.0 0.0 60.5 13.0 19.4 -2.02 47.0 2.0 7.4 12.5 1.7 3.5
Rasheed Wallace 35 82 PF 100.0 18.9 100.5 2.68 14.5 51.1 28.3 76.8 7.3 9.8 -0.54 19.2 44.6 3.0 19.0 3.1 2.4
Michael Finley 36 79 SG 104.0 13.1 108.1 -1.44 10.4 48.0 39.0 53.3 9.2 11.9 1.08 8.2 44.6 1.0 10.7 0.6 0.7
Shelden Williams 26 81 PF 117.8 15.8 103.0 1.96 12.3 52.5 0.0 76.5 5.3 16.7 -2.68 81.0 0.8 9.9 19.8 2.8 1.1
Nate Robinson 25 69 PG 107.3 24.3 109.9 -2.07 18.2 47.4 39.0 74.6 24.9 13.9 3.20 13.6 45.2 2.9 8.6 0.3 2.3
Marquis Daniels 29 78 SG 101.6 15.6 107.1 -0.90 11.2 53.4 21.4 60.7 11.1 15.0 0.21 22.5 11.2 3.6 8.7 0.5 1.5

Season Series

Celtics win series 4-2
Game 1 @ CLE - Cavs 101, Celtics 93
Game 2 @ CLE - Celtics 104, Cavs 86
Game 3 @ BOS - Cavs 124, Celtics 95
Game 4 @ BOS - Celtics 97, Cavs 87
Game 5 @ CLE - Celtics 120, Cavs 88
Game 6 @ BOS - Celtics 94, Cavs 85
Picks Most Likely Second Opinion
SPM "True Skill" Projection says: Cavs in 5 Cavs in 4
SRS says: Cavs in 5 Cavs in 7
I say: Cavs in 6 Cavs in 5

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8 Responses to “2010 Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview: Cleveland vs. Boston”

  1. DSMok1 Says:

    My projection, based on the SPM of each player, with the minutes played adjusted for how playoff rotations look (more minutes for the top players).

    CLE vs BOS
    4 to 0 19.6%
    4 to 1 31.8%
    4 to 2 18.4%
    4 to 3 16.7%
    3 to 4 4.8%
    2 to 4 5.8%
    1 to 4 2.0%
    0 to 4 0.9%

    Est. Tm. Margin
    9.99 4.14
    CLE BOS
    86.5% 13.5%

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    Good work, looks like both SPM projections came up with the same results. I like these 2nd-round matchups because I can just use the minutes from Round 1 as the weights. I did have to prorate KG to 5 games, though.

  3. liam Says:

    I think KG and Rondo are the keys to the series. KG knows we need to turn lebron into a one-man show and beat them the same way we beat miami with wade shooting 60% from the field and averaging 34ppg/8apg/6rpg........ let lebron put up god-like numbers just like wade did, who cares? fact is we can win with him doing that.

    KG needs to completely shut down antawn jamison. im talking COMPLETELY, just like he did to beasley. he needs to do to jamisn what tim duncan did to kenyon martin in the 2003 finals, COMPLETELY dominate the matchup on both ends, shut down jamison and limit him to less than 10ppg, stick to him like glue, block his shots, and then post him up and dominate him on the other end going over the top of him.

    same thing with rondo on mo williams, completely dominate him the entire series, frustrate him to the point where he starts pressing. fullcourt him, dont even let him get the ball over halfcourt, make lebron have to bring the ball up just for them to get into their offense. mo williams will be shooting contested 3's the entire series, rondo is gonna absolutely domiate him.

    then run random double-teams at lebron with ray allen coming off of anthony parker... if parker drops 30 pts in a game to be lebrons second option and beats us than more power to him, but doubleteam bron off the dribble with ray, let him + pierce swarm hiim and make him a jumpshooter, if he drives take a charge on him, make him pass to parker and if parker beats us we tip our cap

    if we can do that, we will win. lebron will get no blame (he doesnt deserve any either) as he'll put up huge numbers, which will make losing more acceptable as his choking teammates get all the blame just like wade's did

    and we will win as a team with more weapons that can score against good defense than they have as a oneman show. let lebron go off, play good d on him with pierce and send ray over for help as shaq and perk clog his lane, if parker beats us so be it....... and let rondo and kg completely shut down and dominate jamison and williams

    thats the key to victory

  4. Chris Says:

    ^Haha Good luck keeping Jamison under 10 points a game.

  5. AYC Says:

    Can anyone explain why Jamario Moon never gets any minutes? He's second only to LBJ in playoff WS/48 and PER, yet he only plays 13 mpg. Going beyond the numbers, he's their most athletic player besides you-know-who, he's long, he defends and he hits 3s (8-13 so far). Is it because he's a small forward? He and Lebron are both versatile enough to play several positions, so that argument doesn't work; I'm starting to think Simmons is right about Coach Brown...

  6. Will Says:

    AYC,
    As a Clevelander who watched many games this year: the team is very deep and there's simply not enough minutes for him. I don't think his talent and actual on-the-court performance merits that much more minutes say then, J.J. Hickson or Jamison [I know I'll take heat for the JJ line]. However, I do believe that he deserves to take some of the minutes of Anthony Parker.

    Also, for being 6-8, he only weights 205 which isn't too much for that height. Thus, I don't think he's the type of player to defend someone on posting up on the block [if he could, he'd have more minutes]. He fills a couple roles: a defender to play against guys who have similar attributes to him [R. Lewis, Pietrius, etc], taller, quick, lankier guys who can shoot well from outside; and to shoot the occasional 3-ball and stretch the floor [Jawad Williams also played this role a bit this regular season].

    I think it's an accomplishment for him to be in Mike Brown's 8 man rotation so far in the playoffs, but it will depend if he stays hot from 3pt range and what matchups the cavs face.

    Lastly, I am a bit surprised to see him 4th in WS/48 in the regular season. I don't know enough about the analytics to explain this.

  7. AYC Says:

    Will,
    Anthony Parker is exactly who I was thinking of. Not that I have anything against him, but why is he playing twice as many minutes as Moon? Why not see how Moon does at the two? Maybe his length and athleticism would really bother Ray Allen; or move Lebron to the 2 and play Moon and Jamison at forward. I just feel like coach Brown has never appreciated what this guy brings to the team

  8. tb727 Says:

    # Chris Says:
    May 1st, 2010 at 6:01 pm

    ^Haha Good luck keeping Jamison under 10 points a game.

    Looks like they did a pretty good job huh lol?