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2010 Western Conference Semifinals Preview: L.A. Lakers vs. Utah

Posted by Neil Paine on May 1, 2010

2010 Playoffs Home2010 Playoff Previews

1. Los Angeles Lakers

Coach: Phil Jackson
SRS: 4.78 (5th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.8 (14th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 108.8 (11th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.7 (4th of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus OKC Thunder

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Los Angeles Lakers 0.496 15 0.124 5 0.276 7 0.221 18
Los Angeles Lakers - Opp 0.484 6 0.132 18 0.256 9 0.195 2

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):

Player Ag Ht Ps ORtg %P DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AR TR PR Fr 3t OR% DR% Bk% St%
Ron Artest 30 78 SF 106.0 16.4 105.0 0.63 11.7 45.3 35.5 68.8 13.3 14.6 1.34 25.1 40.0 4.3 9.9 0.6 2.1
Kobe Bryant 31 78 SG 109.1 31.4 104.4 -0.73 25.0 48.7 32.9 81.1 23.8 13.5 0.36 34.5 19.2 3.1 12.2 0.5 2.1
Pau Gasol 29 84 PF 120.3 22.2 101.8 2.24 17.8 53.9 0.0 79.0 15.0 13.9 0.10 42.9 0.6 11.4 22.7 3.5 0.8
Derek Fisher 35 73 PG 105.4 13.9 105.9 0.55 9.9 40.1 34.8 85.6 12.9 13.1 2.51 23.7 40.1 1.3 7.2 0.3 2.1
Andrew Bynum 22 84 C 117.0 20.6 102.0 2.01 17.8 57.1 0.0 73.9 5.8 14.6 -3.52 37.9 0.1 10.1 20.4 3.6 0.9
Lamar Odom 30 82 PF 109.0 17.9 100.4 2.90 12.3 51.0 31.9 69.3 15.6 16.7 1.08 27.3 24.6 8.0 26.5 1.7 1.5
Shannon Brown 24 76 SG 105.3 17.8 105.1 -0.12 14.1 47.4 32.8 81.8 9.9 11.4 0.29 20.4 31.9 2.0 10.0 1.4 1.7
Jordan Farmar 23 74 PG 105.3 18.2 105.9 -0.99 14.4 48.3 37.6 67.1 13.4 13.9 0.86 16.5 44.5 1.1 8.8 0.6 1.8
Luke Walton 29 80 SF 96.0 17.1 105.4 -1.07 9.1 34.3 41.2 50.0 21.5 13.4 5.39 4.8 20.2 5.0 10.6 0.3 1.9
Josh Powell 27 81 PF 88.7 18.8 106.3 -1.13 10.5 36.0 43.8 64.5 9.0 15.6 -1.66 16.0 8.2 8.5 13.7 0.8 0.8
Adam Morrison 25 80 SF 91.6 18.0 108.0 -2.36 11.0 42.2 23.8 62.5 11.3 11.9 0.83 9.4 24.7 4.7 10.1 0.6 0.6
DJ Mbenga 29 84 C 98.6 16.1 101.3 2.71 10.6 46.6 0.0 47.4 3.4 13.6 -2.72 18.4 0.0 10.2 17.2 6.2 0.7
Sasha Vujacic 25 79 SG 112.1 15.1 105.4 -0.24 11.6 49.4 30.9 84.8 10.5 10.1 1.80 20.1 49.4 4.9 10.4 0.5 1.8

5. Utah Jazz

Coach: Jerry Sloan
SRS: 5.33 (3rd of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 93.8 (9th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 110.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 105.0 (10th of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Denver Nuggets

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Utah Jazz 0.524 4 0.142 26 0.268 13 0.252 4
Utah Jazz - Opp 0.492 13 0.142 5 0.244 5 0.269 30

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):

Player Ag Ht Ps ORtg %P DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AR TR PR Fr 3t OR% DR% Bk% St%
Carlos Boozer 28 81 PF 112.5 24.4 101.9 1.61 20.2 56.2 0.0 74.2 15.8 16.6 -1.77 35.0 0.0 8.2 29.9 1.1 1.6
Deron Williams 25 75 PG 115.8 26.0 107.4 -0.66 18.0 50.1 37.1 80.1 44.5 17.7 9.99 39.7 24.6 2.2 10.4 0.5 1.8
W. Matthews 23 77 SG 112.7 15.8 108.3 -0.94 13.5 52.5 38.2 82.9 9.0 14.9 -0.51 34.2 29.2 3.0 8.0 0.6 1.6
C.J. Miles 22 78 SG 99.9 19.4 106.6 -0.45 14.8 48.4 34.1 69.5 10.7 14.3 -0.73 16.9 38.6 3.4 9.7 0.9 2.0
Paul Millsap 24 80 PF 113.3 18.6 103.4 2.07 14.9 54.3 11.1 69.3 8.9 14.0 -1.26 36.9 1.3 9.9 18.9 3.5 1.4
Kyle Korver 28 79 SF 116.5 15.5 107.3 -0.83 14.0 46.5 53.6 79.6 13.9 14.6 1.82 17.5 39.3 1.3 12.2 1.0 1.4
Kyrylo Fesenko 23 85 C 100.3 16.2 105.3 1.55 11.2 55.3 0.0 42.1 5.3 18.6 -3.43 60.0 1.1 9.8 16.1 3.7 0.8
Ronnie Price 26 74 PG 98.4 19.0 106.0 -0.24 11.3 44.7 28.6 69.5 22.0 18.7 3.23 24.4 26.0 4.2 6.6 1.3 2.5
Kosta Koufos 20 84 C 90.7 18.4 106.2 -0.69 11.0 46.8 0.0 60.0 5.1 24.2 -6.40 31.9 0.0 11.3 19.4 1.9 0.6
Mehmet Okur 30 83 C 108.9 20.4 104.5 1.13 16.4 48.6 38.5 82.0 8.5 14.9 -2.22 30.8 27.5 7.5 20.6 3.0 0.9
Othyus Jeffers 24 77 SG 98.0 26.5 103.3 -0.34 18.3 41.4 0.0 68.4 2.1 16.1 -7.41 65.5 0.0 13.5 17.6 0.0 2.8
Sundiata Gaines 23 73 PG 106.8 24.6 104.9 -0.85 17.4 55.4 26.9 50.0 28.0 13.4 5.53 56.1 31.7 3.4 12.2 0.0 2.8
A. Kirilenko 28 81 SF 117.3 17.8 103.0 1.98 14.6 55.5 29.2 74.4 14.0 13.5 1.57 48.5 18.5 5.5 12.9 3.4 2.5

Season Series

Lakers win series 4-0
Game 1 @ LAL - Lakers 104, Jazz 99
Game 2 @ LAL - Lakers 111, Jazz 103
Game 3 @ UTA - Lakers 111, Jazz 110
Game 4 @ UTA - Lakers 111, Jazz 96
Picks Most Likely Second Opinion
SPM "True Skill" Projection says: Lakers in 5 Lakers in 4
SRS says: Jazz in 6 Lakers in 7
I say: Lakers in 7 Lakers in 6

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6 Responses to “2010 Western Conference Semifinals Preview: L.A. Lakers vs. Utah”

  1. Luke Says:

    I love the Lakers, but they have been VERY shaky lately. This will be a very interesting series.

  2. Paris Hilton Says:

    Neil, will you come to LA and have sex with me if the Lakers win the title this year?

    I'd like to adjust your plus-minus...

    Paris <3

  3. DSMok1 Says:

    My Adjusted Team Efficiencies, converted to SPM, then converted back based on expected lineups/rosters. If Utah had all of their players, this would be a toss-up.

    LAL vs UTA
    4 to 0 11.2%
    4 to 1 24.1%
    4 to 2 17.0%
    4 to 3 20.5%
    3 to 4 8.6%
    2 to 4 11.5%
    1 to 4 4.7%
    0 to 4 2.4%

    Margin
    7.49 4.55
    LAL UTA
    72.8% 27.2%

  4. Neil Paine Says:

    Re: "Paris" #2

    Yup ... these are my readers.

  5. Neil Paine Says:

    Agreed, DSM. That's pretty much the story I saw with SPM and SRS -- full-season SRS actually likes Utah to win to whole thing, but it doesn't know Okur and Kirilenko are out. SPM using last round's minutes thinks L.A. is significantly better. Then again, it thought Denver would beat the undermanned Jazz and L.A. would destroy OKC, so there's a good possibility the series will still be very close.

  6. Walter Says:

    I typically side with the "let the numbers do the talking and not going with gut feeling" but I think this series is unique. These two teams have faced each other twice already in previous playoffs with essentially the same players. I think the Lakers are just a bad match-up for the Jazz. The combination of Boozer and Millsap play very well against almost every team in the league the but the Lakers are just too big and long.
    I think this one goes only 4 or 5 at the most. The Lakers will win the first two at home. They will have 3 days off to rest before game 3 which is huge for an ailing Kobe, Artest, and Bynum so I think they get game 3 as well and go up 3-0 in the series. It will be up to them whether they decide to play hard and close it out in 4 or just go through the motions and close it out at home in game 5.