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2010 Western Conference Semifinals Preview: Phoenix vs. San Antonio

Posted by Neil Paine on May 1, 2010

2010 Playoffs Home2010 Playoff Previews

3. Phoenix Suns

Coach: Alvin Gentry
SRS: 4.68 (6th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 95.3 (4th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 115.3 (1st of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.2 (23rd of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Portland Trail Blazers

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Phoenix Suns 0.546 1 0.136 17 0.276 7 0.240 10
Phoenix Suns - Opp 0.491 11 0.116 30 0.292 29 0.224 16

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):

Player Ag Ht Ps ORtg %P DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AR TR PR Fr 3t OR% DR% Bk% St%
A. Stoudemire 27 82 C 117.5 26.1 108.9 -0.09 23.4 55.9 16.7 77.1 4.8 14.5 -5.58 50.0 0.5 9.7 18.9 2.1 0.9
Steve Nash 35 75 PG 120.8 26.1 113.8 -3.05 17.5 54.0 42.6 93.8 50.9 21.4 11.27 22.8 29.5 1.5 9.4 0.3 0.8
J. Richardson 29 78 SG 116.1 19.4 110.6 -0.89 17.5 52.8 39.3 73.9 8.8 9.6 0.13 18.4 40.1 3.9 13.9 0.9 1.3
Channing Frye 26 83 PF 119.6 15.7 107.9 1.46 14.5 46.6 43.9 81.0 7.4 10.7 0.11 17.2 55.8 3.6 17.6 2.4 1.5
Grant Hill 37 80 SF 114.2 16.6 109.9 0.18 13.1 48.3 43.8 81.7 11.2 13.5 0.85 35.7 11.4 3.6 16.3 1.0 1.2
Jared Dudley 24 79 SF 123.6 13.7 110.7 -0.36 11.9 46.1 45.8 75.4 7.9 12.6 0.44 28.2 53.5 5.9 9.8 0.6 2.0
L. Barbosa 27 75 SG 105.3 23.3 112.2 -2.51 18.6 48.5 32.4 87.7 12.5 12.7 -0.42 20.0 37.3 1.7 7.9 1.1 1.5
Louis Amundson 27 81 PF 113.1 15.4 106.6 2.30 11.1 55.3 0.0 54.5 3.7 16.0 -3.11 44.6 0.4 13.1 19.9 4.4 1.0
Goran Dragic 23 76 PG 109.7 21.9 111.6 -1.97 15.4 48.8 39.4 73.6 24.1 20.1 2.40 32.4 38.3 3.2 9.8 0.4 1.7
Jarron Collins 31 83 C 93.4 10.0 111.6 0.24 4.6 38.7 0.0 40.0 2.9 19.4 -2.31 80.6 0.0 10.1 16.4 0.8 0.4
Earl Clark 22 82 SF 88.7 21.1 111.0 -2.04 12.8 37.0 40.0 72.2 7.8 14.3 -2.35 23.8 3.3 5.6 12.3 2.4 0.9
Dwayne Jones 26 83 PF 0.0 0.0 108.3 2.31 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.5 0.0 0.0
Robin Lopez 21 84 C 123.3 17.1 109.6 0.50 15.3 58.8 0.0 70.4 1.1 12.3 -3.68 43.0 0.0 12.6 15.6 3.8 0.5

7. San Antonio Spurs

Coach: Gregg Popovich
SRS: 5.07 (4th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.7 (20th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 110.0 (9th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 104.5 (8th of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Dallas Mavericks

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
San Antonio Spurs 0.515 7 0.129 11 0.268 13 0.219 20
San Antonio Spurs - Opp 0.483 4 0.121 28 0.237 4 0.214 10

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):

Player Ag Ht Ps ORtg %P DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AR TR PR Fr 3t OR% DR% Bk% St%
Tim Duncan 33 83 PF 115.7 26.2 100.9 2.26 20.8 52.2 18.2 72.5 17.8 11.5 0.98 34.6 1.0 10.8 26.8 3.5 1.0
George Hill 23 74 PG 114.9 18.6 106.5 0.28 15.4 50.5 39.9 77.2 15.5 12.5 2.18 32.1 25.5 2.2 8.2 0.8 1.6
Manu Ginobili 32 78 SG 118.1 26.2 103.8 0.29 21.0 48.1 37.7 87.0 28.2 14.3 4.31 39.3 38.8 3.8 11.6 0.8 2.5
R. Jefferson 29 79 SF 110.0 17.6 106.3 0.60 14.4 51.5 31.6 73.5 9.6 12.4 0.01 37.0 24.1 2.7 13.6 1.1 0.9
Tony Parker 27 74 PG 106.4 26.2 108.5 -1.89 18.8 49.7 29.4 75.6 30.9 17.2 3.61 34.4 4.7 0.5 8.5 0.3 0.9
A. McDyess 35 81 PF 102.7 15.8 102.9 1.53 10.0 48.1 0.0 63.2 7.7 16.2 -1.46 13.3 0.5 11.0 21.8 1.4 1.4
Matt Bonner 29 82 PF 116.9 16.4 104.4 0.62 14.3 53.9 39.0 72.9 9.0 10.7 0.55 12.9 62.1 5.3 16.1 1.5 1.4
DeJuan Blair 20 79 PF 108.1 21.6 100.7 2.19 15.6 55.8 0.0 54.7 7.1 18.2 -4.60 32.5 0.4 16.0 25.1 1.9 1.8
Roger Mason 29 77 SG 100.8 16.5 107.0 -0.84 12.0 45.3 33.3 79.4 13.5 12.3 2.13 6.9 53.2 0.9 11.5 0.7 1.0
Keith Bogans 29 77 SG 106.3 10.9 106.1 0.82 8.1 49.0 35.7 74.0 8.5 16.4 0.66 16.8 65.8 1.9 11.2 0.6 1.5
Ian Mahinmi 23 83 C 115.4 24.1 100.3 3.03 22.3 63.6 0.0 66.0 2.1 19.7 -8.28 85.5 0.0 9.4 27.2 3.5 1.0
Garrett Temple 23 78 SG 99.1 19.8 106.6 -0.12 14.7 48.4 35.1 70.0 9.6 21.1 -3.89 49.5 36.6 2.1 8.8 1.3 2.0

Season Series

Suns win series 4-0
Game 1 @ PHO - Suns 111, Spurs 102
Game 2 @ PHO - Suns 110, Spurs 102
Game 3 @ SA - Suns 110, Spurs 96
Game 4 @ SA - Suns 107, Spurs 101
Picks Most Likely Second Opinion
SPM "True Skill" Projection says: Spurs in 6 Spurs in 5
SRS says: Spurs in 6 Suns in 7
I say: Spurs in 6 Spurs in 7

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One Response to “2010 Western Conference Semifinals Preview: Phoenix vs. San Antonio”

  1. DSMok1 Says:

    My adjusted team efficiencies, converted to SPM, then converted back to team efficiency based on the expected lineups/roster.

    San Antonio is the top team in the West according to my calculations.

    PHO vs SAS
    4 to 0 2.9%
    4 to 1 9.6%
    4 to 2 8.9%
    4 to 3 16.6%
    3 to 4 13.8%
    2 to 4 23.8%
    1 to 4 14.7%
    0 to 4 9.8%

    Margin
    6.52 8.83
    PHO SAS
    38.0% 62.0%