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2010 Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview: Orlando vs. Atlanta

Posted by Neil Paine on May 3, 2010

2010 Playoffs Home2010 Playoff Previews

2. Orlando Magic

Coach: Stan Van Gundy
SRS: 7.12 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.0 (18th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 111.4 (4th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.3 (3rd of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-0) versus Charlotte Bobcats

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Orlando Magic 0.536 2 0.136 17 0.246 25 0.246 7
Orlando Magic - Opp 0.477 1 0.122 26 0.226 1 0.205 3

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):

Player Ag Ht Ps ORtg %P DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AR TR PR Fr 3t OR% DR% Bk% St%
Rashard Lewis 30 82 SF 110.7 18.3 104.1 0.51 15.5 47.6 39.7 80.6 7.4 13.0 -1.55 22.4 52.5 3.1 12.1 0.9 1.7
Vince Carter 33 79 SG 112.1 24.2 105.3 -0.37 19.5 45.6 36.7 84.0 17.8 9.9 2.22 30.1 31.9 1.7 12.6 0.6 1.2
Jameer Nelson 27 72 PG 109.8 23.3 106.1 -1.21 16.0 48.1 38.1 84.5 32.1 16.8 5.18 16.4 32.0 1.7 10.1 0.1 1.3
Matt Barnes 29 79 SF 111.2 16.4 102.8 1.27 12.4 58.6 31.9 74.0 10.1 17.0 -1.08 26.2 37.2 6.1 18.0 1.1 1.5
Dwight Howard 24 83 C 113.4 24.6 95.3 6.01 19.2 61.7 0.0 59.2 8.7 20.5 -6.26 97.8 0.8 12.0 31.3 6.0 1.4
Marcin Gortat 25 84 PF 112.7 13.6 99.3 3.71 9.8 54.0 0.0 68.0 2.4 16.2 -3.19 33.0 1.3 11.5 24.3 4.8 0.8
Mickael Pietrus 27 78 SG 105.8 16.8 104.0 0.33 14.0 50.2 37.9 63.3 4.7 12.7 -2.15 20.2 56.8 2.8 11.6 1.4 1.6
J.J. Redick 25 76 SG 123.2 17.7 107.6 -1.23 15.8 47.3 40.5 86.0 13.9 10.3 2.34 40.1 49.5 1.1 8.5 0.2 0.8
Jason Williams 34 73 PG 114.6 15.6 106.2 -1.08 10.5 51.2 38.0 75.6 26.9 17.1 6.56 9.6 51.9 0.5 7.8 0.1 1.6
Ryan Anderson 21 82 PF 111.8 23.5 103.3 -0.97 19.4 51.4 37.0 86.6 7.1 13.6 -3.44 21.1 54.4 9.2 16.2 1.1 1.4
Brandon Bass 24 80 PF 111.7 20.4 103.6 -0.02 16.2 51.1 0.0 82.5 5.1 12.2 -2.83 27.0 0.0 10.0 12.6 3.1 1.0

3. Atlanta Hawks

Coach: Mike Woodson
SRS: 4.44 (7th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 90.1 (27th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 111.9 (2nd of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 106.7 (13th of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-3) versus Milwaukee Bucks

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Atlanta Hawks 0.506 11 0.114 1 0.282 4 0.213 23
Atlanta Hawks - Opp 0.496 16 0.132 18 0.273 24 0.208 8

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):

Player Ag Ht Ps ORtg %P DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AR TR PR Fr 3t OR% DR% Bk% St%
Joe Johnson 28 80 SG 112.4 25.6 109.1 -1.87 20.8 48.8 36.9 81.8 22.0 10.5 3.50 19.4 25.3 3.0 11.4 0.1 1.5
Al Horford 23 82 C 121.4 18.1 104.7 1.82 14.9 55.1 100.0 78.9 10.4 12.6 0.14 31.9 0.1 9.6 23.3 2.4 1.1
Josh Smith 24 81 PF 109.4 23.3 101.4 3.33 16.4 50.8 0.0 61.8 19.0 15.8 1.04 42.2 0.7 9.0 19.8 4.6 2.4
Mike Bibby 31 73 PG 112.9 16.4 109.6 -1.09 12.3 44.4 38.9 86.1 20.8 13.3 5.32 12.3 50.3 1.1 8.8 0.1 1.6
Marvin Williams 23 81 SF 112.9 15.0 107.3 0.59 12.3 49.2 30.3 81.9 5.6 10.3 -0.41 32.4 19.9 5.0 14.8 1.4 1.4
Jamal Crawford 29 78 SG 114.3 24.6 110.4 -2.50 21.5 49.1 38.2 85.7 16.1 12.1 0.88 28.5 38.6 1.6 8.0 0.4 1.3
Zaza Pachulia 25 83 C 109.9 16.6 104.4 2.04 11.3 49.6 0.0 65.0 5.6 17.1 -2.75 58.1 1.6 12.4 19.0 2.1 1.8
Maurice Evans 31 77 SG 116.9 14.6 109.5 -1.11 12.7 52.7 33.7 75.4 5.5 5.6 0.91 15.5 43.0 5.2 8.5 1.0 1.4
Jeff Teague 21 74 PG 96.5 20.0 106.4 -0.33 11.7 42.6 21.9 83.7 25.1 18.6 4.36 21.6 14.1 0.8 10.2 1.2 2.5
Joe Smith 34 82 PF 103.5 18.8 107.2 0.10 12.1 40.9 14.3 81.3 5.3 10.6 -1.35 24.9 3.6 12.9 18.1 2.4 0.5
Mario West 25 77 SG 110.1 11.6 104.4 1.55 7.8 60.0 0.0 60.0 8.8 22.6 -0.70 47.6 4.8 6.5 15.8 0.0 3.0
Jason Collins 31 84 C 73.4 11.8 108.7 -0.02 5.2 36.4 0.0 0.0 4.8 19.7 -2.03 8.7 4.3 5.0 9.2 1.3 1.4

Season Series

Magic win series 4-0
Game 1 @ ORL - Magic 114, Hawks 71
Game 2 @ ORL - Magic 112, Hawks 98
Game 3 @ ATL - Magic 105, Hawks 75
Game 4 @ ATL - Magic 98, Hawks 84
Picks Most Likely Second Opinion
SPM "True Skill" Projection says: Magic in 5 Magic in 7
SRS says: Magic in 5 Magic in 7
I say: Magic in 5 Magic in 4

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5 Responses to “2010 Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview: Orlando vs. Atlanta”

  1. sp6r=underrated Says:

    Orlando sweeps Atlanta. The magic are way under the radar of the general basketball public.

  2. DSMok1 Says:

    My adjusted team efficiencies, converted to SPM, then converted back to team efficiency based on the expected lineups/roster.

    Orlando is the 3rd best team still playing; Atlanta the 5th best.

    ORL vs ATL
    4 to 0 7.6%
    4 to 1 18.9%
    4 to 2 14.8%
    4 to 3 20.8%
    3 to 4 11.0%
    2 to 4 15.7%
    1 to 4 7.2%
    0 to 4 4.0%

    Margin
    8.00 6.79
    ORL ATL
    62.1% 37.9%

  3. P Middy Says:

    The Magic are significantly stronger at the Center position than the Bucks were. Even if Howard gets saddled with fouls. Zaza and Horford are not going to produce easy buckets in this series. Orlando has a few guys it can throw at Joe Johnson defensively. Josh Smith will have a lot riding on his shoulders. But if it was that hard against the depleted Bucks . . .

  4. Mike G Says:

    DSMok1 says Orl in 5 or 7 are both more likely than Orl in 6.
    Also, that Atl in 6 is more likely than in 7 or in 5.

    Neil says Orl in 7 is more likely than in 6, less likely than in 5.

    I don't get the unevenness of the distribution. Does it have to do with home/away?

    Also: The link shown as --
    "How They Got Here:
    Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-3) versus Milwaukee Bucks"
    -- leads to a preview of that series.

    How about a statistical summary of previous series, rather than another review of the regular season?

  5. DSMok1 Says:

    The home court advantage is estimated as worth 3.7 points per 100 possessions (at least, that's my estimate over the last 10 years). If there were no home court advantage, the ORL vs. ATL distribution would look like:

    ORL vs ATL
    4 to 0 8.5%
    4 to 1 15.6%
    4 to 2 18.0%
    4 to 3 16.5%
    3 to 4 14.1%
    2 to 4 13.1%
    1 to 4 9.7%
    0 to 4 4.5%

    Margin
    8.00 6.79
    ORL ATL
    58.6% 41.4%

    It would also be a lot easier to calculate the series results in this case! As it is, a 7 game series is a pain as I have to calculate the odds of every different outcome (such as WWLLWW) and sum them to get the odds like these.