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2010 Western Conference Finals Preview: L.A. Lakers vs. Phoenix

Posted by Neil Paine on May 12, 2010

2010 Playoffs Home2010 Playoff Previews

1. Los Angeles Lakers

Coach: Phil Jackson
SRS: 4.78 (5th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.8 (14th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 108.8 (11th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.7 (4th of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus Utah Jazz
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus OKC Thunder

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Los Angeles Lakers 0.496 15 0.124 5 0.276 7 0.221 18
Los Angeles Lakers - Opp 0.484 6 0.132 18 0.256 9 0.195 2

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):

Player Ag Ht Ps ORtg %P DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AR TR PR Fr 3t OR% DR% Bk% St%
Kobe Bryant 31 78 SG 109.1 31.4 104.4 -0.73 25.0 48.7 32.9 81.1 23.8 13.5 0.36 34.5 19.2 3.1 12.2 0.5 2.1
Pau Gasol 29 84 PF 120.3 22.2 101.8 2.24 17.8 53.9 0.0 79.0 15.0 13.9 0.10 42.9 0.6 11.4 22.7 3.5 0.8
Ron Artest 30 78 SF 106.0 16.4 105.0 0.63 11.7 45.3 35.5 68.8 13.3 14.6 1.34 25.1 40.0 4.3 9.9 0.6 2.1
Derek Fisher 35 73 PG 105.4 13.9 105.9 0.55 9.9 40.1 34.8 85.6 12.9 13.1 2.51 23.7 40.1 1.3 7.2 0.3 2.1
Andrew Bynum 22 84 C 117.0 20.6 102.0 2.01 17.8 57.1 0.0 73.9 5.8 14.6 -3.52 37.9 0.1 10.1 20.4 3.6 0.9
Lamar Odom 30 82 PF 109.0 17.9 100.4 2.90 12.3 51.0 31.9 69.3 15.6 16.7 1.08 27.3 24.6 8.0 26.5 1.7 1.5
Shannon Brown 24 76 SG 105.3 17.8 105.1 -0.12 14.1 47.4 32.8 81.8 9.9 11.4 0.29 20.4 31.9 2.0 10.0 1.4 1.7
Jordan Farmar 23 74 PG 105.3 18.2 105.9 -0.99 14.4 48.3 37.6 67.1 13.4 13.9 0.86 16.5 44.5 1.1 8.8 0.6 1.8
Luke Walton 29 80 SF 96.0 17.1 105.4 -1.07 9.1 34.3 41.2 50.0 21.5 13.4 5.39 4.8 20.2 5.0 10.6 0.3 1.9
Josh Powell 27 81 PF 88.7 18.8 106.3 -1.13 10.5 36.0 43.8 64.5 9.0 15.6 -1.66 16.0 8.2 8.5 13.7 0.8 0.8
Adam Morrison 25 80 SF 91.6 18.0 108.0 -2.36 11.0 42.2 23.8 62.5 11.3 11.9 0.83 9.4 24.7 4.7 10.1 0.6 0.6
D.J. Mbenga 29 84 C 98.6 16.1 101.3 2.71 10.6 46.6 0.0 47.4 3.4 13.6 -2.72 18.4 0.0 10.2 17.2 6.2 0.7

3. Phoenix Suns

Coach: Alvin Gentry
SRS: 4.68 (6th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 95.3 (4th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 115.3 (1st of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.2 (23rd of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus San Antonio Spurs
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Portland Trail Blazers

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Phoenix Suns 0.546 1 0.136 17 0.276 7 0.240 10
Phoenix Suns - Opp 0.491 11 0.116 30 0.292 29 0.224 16

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):

Player Ag Ht Ps ORtg %P DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AR TR PR Fr 3t OR% DR% Bk% St%
A. Stoudemire 27 82 C 117.5 26.1 108.9 -0.09 23.4 55.9 16.7 77.1 4.8 14.5 -5.58 50.0 0.5 9.7 18.9 2.1 0.9
Steve Nash 35 75 PG 120.8 26.1 113.8 -3.05 17.5 54.0 42.6 93.8 50.9 21.4 11.27 22.8 29.5 1.5 9.4 0.3 0.8
J. Richardson 29 78 SG 116.1 19.4 110.6 -0.89 17.5 52.8 39.3 73.9 8.8 9.6 0.13 18.4 40.1 3.9 13.9 0.9 1.3
Grant Hill 37 80 SF 114.2 16.6 109.9 0.18 13.1 48.3 43.8 81.7 11.2 13.5 0.85 35.7 11.4 3.6 16.3 1.0 1.2
Channing Frye 26 83 PF 119.6 15.7 107.9 1.46 14.5 46.6 43.9 81.0 7.4 10.7 0.11 17.2 55.8 3.6 17.6 2.4 1.5
Jared Dudley 24 79 SF 123.6 13.7 110.7 -0.36 11.9 46.1 45.8 75.4 7.9 12.6 0.44 28.2 53.5 5.9 9.8 0.6 2.0
L. Barbosa 27 75 SG 105.3 23.3 112.2 -2.51 18.6 48.5 32.4 87.7 12.5 12.7 -0.42 20.0 37.3 1.7 7.9 1.1 1.5
Goran Dragic 23 76 PG 109.7 21.9 111.6 -1.97 15.4 48.8 39.4 73.6 24.1 20.1 2.40 32.4 38.3 3.2 9.8 0.4 1.7
L. Amundson 27 81 PF 113.1 15.4 106.6 2.30 11.1 55.3 0.0 54.5 3.7 16.0 -3.11 44.6 0.4 13.1 19.9 4.4 1.0
Jarron Collins 31 83 C 93.4 10.0 111.6 0.24 4.6 38.7 0.0 40.0 2.9 19.4 -2.31 80.6 0.0 10.1 16.4 0.8 0.4
Earl Clark 22 82 SF 88.7 21.1 111.0 -2.04 12.8 37.0 40.0 72.2 7.8 14.3 -2.35 23.8 3.3 5.6 12.3 2.4 0.9
Dwayne Jones 26 83 PF 0.0 0.0 108.3 2.31 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.5 0.0 0.0

Season Series

Lakers win series 4-2
Game 1 @ LAL - Lakers 128, Suns 107
Game 2 @ LAL - Lakers 124, Suns 112
Game 3 @ PHO - Suns 118, Lakers 109
Game 4 @ PHO - Suns 115, Lakers 106
Game 5 @ LAL - Lakers 103, Suns 101
Game 6 @ PHO - Lakers 111, Suns 103
Picks Most Likely Second Opinion
SPM "True Skill" Projection says: Lakers in 5 Lakers in 7
SRS says: Lakers in 7 Suns in 6
I say: Lakers in 6 Lakers in 5

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5 Responses to “2010 Western Conference Finals Preview: L.A. Lakers vs. Phoenix”

  1. Ricardo Says:

    I wanted the picks to be right in the Spurs-Suns series; I hope they're wrong this time, too.

  2. AHL Says:

    Where did you get that series schedule?

    Everywhere only reports Monday 5/17 as Game 1 and Wed 5/19 as Game 2 with the rest TBD.

  3. Neil Paine Says:

    I got it here:

    http://thelakersnation.com/blog/2010/05/09/western-conference-finals-schedule-released/

    But I think the 17th date for Game 1 is correct, so I'll get that fixed.

  4. DSMok1 Says:

    As usual, here are my projections, based on the Statistical Plus/Minus and minutes played estimates for each team. I have updated the SPM through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.

    LAL vs PHO
    4 to 0 7.5%
    4 to 1 18.8%
    4 to 2 14.7%
    4 to 3 20.8%
    3 to 4 11.0%
    2 to 4 15.8%
    1 to 4 7.3%
    0 to 4 4.1%

    Margin
    8.12 6.96
    LAL PHO
    61.7% 38.3%

    The Lakers in 7 is the projection here.

  5. DSMok1 Says:

    EDIT: I didn't realize Lopez would play. I don't know whether that helps them or not; SPM doesn't like him as much as the alternatives. In terms of matchups, I'm sure it does help.

    LAL vs PHO
    4 to 0 8.0%
    4 to 1 19.6%
    4 to 2 15.1%
    4 to 3 20.9%
    3 to 4 10.6%
    2 to 4 15.1%
    1 to 4 6.8%
    0 to 4 3.7%

    Margin
    8.12 6.66
    LAL PHO
    63.7% 36.3%