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2010 Eastern Conference Finals Preview: Orlando vs. Boston

Posted by Neil Paine on May 14, 2010

2010 Playoffs Home2010 Playoff Previews

2. Orlando Magic

Coach: Stan Van Gundy
SRS: 7.12 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.0 (18th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 111.4 (4th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.3 (3rd of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus Atlanta Hawks
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-0) versus Charlotte Bobcats

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Orlando Magic 0.536 2 0.136 17 0.246 25 0.246 7
Orlando Magic - Opp 0.477 1 0.122 26 0.226 1 0.205 3

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):

Player Ag Ht Ps ORtg %P DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AR TR PR Fr 3t OR% DR% Bk% St%
Rashard Lewis 30 82 SF 110.7 18.3 104.1 0.51 15.5 47.6 39.7 80.6 7.4 13.0 -1.55 22.4 52.5 3.1 12.1 0.9 1.7
Vince Carter 33 79 SG 112.1 24.2 105.3 -0.37 19.5 45.6 36.7 84.0 17.8 9.9 2.22 30.1 31.9 1.7 12.6 0.6 1.2
Jameer Nelson 27 72 PG 109.8 23.3 106.1 -1.21 16.0 48.1 38.1 84.5 32.1 16.8 5.18 16.4 32.0 1.7 10.1 0.1 1.3
Dwight Howard 24 83 C 113.4 24.6 95.3 6.01 19.2 61.7 0.0 59.2 8.7 20.5 -6.26 97.8 0.8 12.0 31.3 6.0 1.4
Matt Barnes 29 79 SF 111.2 16.4 102.8 1.27 12.4 58.6 31.9 74.0 10.1 17.0 -1.08 26.2 37.2 6.1 18.0 1.1 1.5
Mickael Pietrus 27 78 SG 105.8 16.8 104.0 0.33 14.0 50.2 37.9 63.3 4.7 12.7 -2.15 20.2 56.8 2.8 11.6 1.4 1.6
Marcin Gortat 25 84 PF 112.7 13.6 99.3 3.71 9.8 54.0 0.0 68.0 2.4 16.2 -3.19 33.0 1.3 11.5 24.3 4.8 0.8
Jason Williams 34 73 PG 114.6 15.6 106.2 -1.08 10.5 51.2 38.0 75.6 26.9 17.1 6.56 9.6 51.9 0.5 7.8 0.1 1.6
J.J. Redick 25 76 SG 123.2 17.7 107.6 -1.23 15.8 47.3 40.5 86.0 13.9 10.3 2.34 40.1 49.5 1.1 8.5 0.2 0.8
Ryan Anderson 21 82 PF 111.8 23.5 103.3 -0.97 19.4 51.4 37.0 86.6 7.1 13.6 -3.44 21.1 54.4 9.2 16.2 1.1 1.4
Brandon Bass 24 80 PF 111.7 20.4 103.6 -0.02 16.2 51.1 0.0 82.5 5.1 12.2 -2.83 27.0 0.0 10.0 12.6 3.1 1.0
A. Johnson 35 75 PG 109.8 17.8 105.6 -1.07 11.6 50.0 33.3 95.0 24.2 18.8 3.94 18.0 35.1 2.4 11.0 0.2 1.4

4. Boston Celtics

Coach: Doc Rivers
SRS: 3.37 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.6 (22nd of 30)
Offensive Rating: 107.7 (15th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.8 (5th of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-2) versus Cleveland Cavaliers
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Miami Heat

Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Boston Celtics 0.522 5 0.145 27 0.228 28 0.248 6
Boston Celtics - Opp 0.487 9 0.149 2 0.262 12 0.251 24

Roster (w/ 2010 Regular-Season Stats):

Player Ag Ht Ps ORtg %P DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AR TR PR Fr 3t OR% DR% Bk% St%
Rajon Rondo 23 73 PG 111.0 23.0 103.0 0.93 13.6 53.6 21.3 62.1 43.7 18.9 9.56 31.2 8.8 4.3 10.5 0.3 3.3
Ray Allen 34 77 SG 114.6 19.1 107.7 -0.99 16.9 55.6 36.3 91.3 12.3 12.5 0.39 26.0 41.0 2.0 8.8 0.7 1.2
Paul Pierce 32 78 SF 114.0 23.0 104.8 0.32 19.6 49.7 41.4 85.2 15.1 15.7 -0.86 49.9 30.3 2.0 13.4 1.0 1.8
Kevin Garnett 33 83 PF 112.4 21.5 101.0 2.01 17.5 52.3 20.0 83.7 15.7 11.9 1.08 28.6 0.6 4.8 24.8 2.2 1.7
K. Perkins 25 82 C 105.2 17.8 101.5 2.85 13.4 60.5 0.0 58.2 6.0 22.6 -5.18 53.6 0.6 9.1 24.4 4.8 0.6
Glen Davis 24 81 PF 103.2 20.4 105.9 -0.18 13.3 44.4 0.0 69.6 5.9 14.6 -3.18 49.5 1.4 13.7 13.3 1.2 1.2
Tony Allen 28 76 SG 101.1 20.1 100.9 1.62 13.5 52.0 0.0 60.5 13.0 19.4 -2.02 47.0 2.0 7.4 12.5 1.7 3.5
R. Wallace 35 82 PF 100.0 18.9 100.5 2.68 14.5 51.1 28.3 76.8 7.3 9.8 -0.54 19.2 44.6 3.0 19.0 3.1 2.4
Michael Finley 36 79 SG 104.0 13.1 108.1 -1.44 10.4 48.0 39.0 53.3 9.2 11.9 1.08 8.2 44.6 1.0 10.7 0.6 0.7
S. Williams 26 81 PF 117.8 15.8 103.0 1.96 12.3 52.5 0.0 76.5 5.3 16.7 -2.68 81.0 0.8 9.9 19.8 2.8 1.1
Nate Robinson 25 69 PG 107.3 24.3 109.9 -2.07 18.2 47.4 39.0 74.6 24.9 13.9 3.20 13.6 45.2 2.9 8.6 0.3 2.3
Marquis Daniels 29 78 SG 101.6 15.6 107.1 -0.90 11.2 53.4 21.4 60.7 11.1 15.0 0.21 22.5 11.2 3.6 8.7 0.5 1.5

Season Series

Celtics win series 4-2
Game 1 @ ORL - Celtics 92, Magic 88
Game 2 @ ORL - Celtics 95, Magic 92
Game 3 @ BOS - Celtics 91, Magic 74
Game 4 @ BOS - Magic 96, Celtics 92 (OT)
Game 5 @ ORL - Magic 113, Celtics 92
Game 6 @ BOS - Celtics 96, Magic 84
Picks Most Likely Second Opinion
SPM "True Skill" Projection says: Magic in 7 Magic in 5
SRS says: Magic in 5 Magic in 7
I say: Magic in 6 Magic in 7

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17 Responses to “2010 Eastern Conference Finals Preview: Orlando vs. Boston”

  1. downpuppy Says:

    The schedule looks harsh for the old guys, but the 2 games the Celtics lost vs the Cavs were the ones they had 3 days off for. The wins all came after 1 day off.

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    I amended the schedule, they actually have the extra 2 days off between Games 2 & 3:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_NBA_Playoffs#Conference_Finals:_.282.29_Orlando_Magic_vs._.284.29_Boston_Celtics

  3. AYC Says:

    Celts will win; they nearly beat Orlando last year without KG! They are peaking at the right time; the big 3 is healthy and playing well, Rondo is better than ever (he will destroy Nelson), and th bench is better too. I have the Celts going all the way now...

    PS Rajon Rondo, 2010 finals MVP; you heard it here first!

  4. Neil Paine Says:

    Personally, I would love to see that. And if the Celts had shown more in the season series w/ Orlando, I'd be more inclined to agree. But the Magic are really, really good, probably the best team in the league. I think they're the odds-on favorites to win the championship right now.

  5. Jason J Says:

    This series will come down to team rebounding and the head to head point guard battle. If the Celts can defend the Nelson / Dwight and Nelson / Lewis pick and roll, and Garnett outplays Lewis in that weird two way mismatch, they can get it done.

  6. AYC Says:

    The question with the Celts has always been, "are they healthy?" If they are, and they certainly appear to be now, they have the best starting 5 in the game (and the bench is improved too). This looks like the team that started 23-5, not the one that ended 17-17

    Also, Boston matches up very, very well with Orlando. If only they hadn't traded away Eddie House...

  7. AYC Says:

    PS Orlando beat up on some really weak teams in the first 2 rounds; Bobcats were just happy to be there, Hawks couldn't defend anybody, nearly lost to depleted Bucks

  8. DSMok1 Says:

    Statistical Plus/Minus + Weighted minutes played projection:

    ORL vs BOS
    4 to 0 14.8%
    4 to 1 28.0%
    4 to 2 18.0%
    4 to 3 19.2%
    3 to 4 6.7%
    2 to 4 8.5%
    1 to 4 3.2%
    0 to 4 1.6%

    Margin
    9.55 5.24
    ORL BOS
    80.0% 20.0%

    Orlando in 5 is the estimate here. Orlando looks to be the best team in the league right now, by a 1.5 pt. margin.

    BTW: even after the fact, the Boston demolition of Cleveland looks like it was pretty unlikely.

  9. Jason J Says:

    Boston is a different team when Garnett plays this well. It's a little like the '95 Rockets where Clyde suddenly turned back into Clyde and they destroyed expectations.

  10. Phillip Says:

    "I have the Celts going all the way now..."
    "I think [the Magic are] the odds-on favorites to win the championship right now."

    Bookmarked! I'm going to enjoy returning here to scrape up these quotes after the Lakers win their repeat championship in June. That said, the Orlando-Celtics series should be entertaining. You should write a post about Vince Carter's playoff performances.

    Cheers!

  11. Johnny Twisto Says:

    You'll come back just in case they don't, too, right?

  12. AYC Says:

    Is anybody surprised?

  13. Neil Paine Says:

    Who knows with these Celtics anymore... I've seen them dominate teams they weren't even supposed to beat, lose to teams they were supposed to dominate, and blow 20-point leads against every type of team. Nothing would surprise me at this point.

  14. AYC Says:

    Even the 08 team was like this; remember how bad they looked against the Hawks in the first round? This team is potentially better, because Rondo is so much better (and Perk and Davis)

  15. Neil Paine Says:

    That is true, and the complaint then was that they couldn't win a road playoff game. But what was different was that the regular-season version was one of the most dominant teams of all time, so they had proven for at least 82 games what they were capable of. This year's team has proven it for maybe 40 games, including this afternoon's.

  16. AYC Says:

    What did Tony Allen do to ESPN? That ridiculous one-handed alley-oop didn't make the top 10, didn't even make the game recap

  17. Jason J Says:

    Neil, do you think more weight should be given to a team's playoff performance than regular performance (on a per game basis anyway), because the playoffs basically guarantee a tougher strength of schedule?

    This Celtics team is sort of reminding me of the 2001 Lakers. They aren't as dominant obviously as a regular season squad or a playoff squad, but at this point it seems clear that they were hampered by injuries and then holding back to get healthy in the second half of the reg season. So, like the Lakers, I think when we talk about upsets and such regarding this team, we need to look more to their playoff performances than to their regular season performances.