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Mega 2010 NBA Finals Preview: L.A. Lakers vs. Boston Celtics

Posted by Neil Paine on May 31, 2010

2010 Playoffs Home2010 Playoff Previews

West #1 Los Angeles Lakers (69-29)

Coach: Phil Jackson
SRS: 4.78 (5th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.8 (14th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 108.8 (11th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.7 (4th of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Western Conference Finals (4-2) versus Phoenix Suns
Won NBA Western Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus Utah Jazz
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus OKC Thunder

2010 Lakers Playoff Stats

Regular Season Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Los Angeles Lakers 0.496 15 0.124 5 0.276 7 0.221 18
Los Angeles Lakers - Opp 0.484 6 0.132 18 0.256 9 0.195 2

Roster (w/ Combined 2010 Regular-Season + Playoff Stats)Glossary

Player Ag Ht Pos ORtg %Pos DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AsR ToR PpR FTr 3td OR% DR% Bk% St%
Kobe Bryant 31 78 SG 110.7 31.5 105.8 0.48 25.3 49.0 34.5 81.3 24.6 13.6 0.7 34.6 20.1 3.0 12.2 0.7 1.9
Pau Gasol 29 84 PF 121.7 22.1 103.2 2.31 18.0 54.5 0.0 78.9 14.8 13.5 0.3 43.3 0.6 11.2 22.4 3.6 0.7
Ron Artest 30 78 SF 106.4 16.2 106.3 -0.16 11.6 46.8 33.6 68.1 12.6 13.6 1.5 22.1 41.3 4.3 9.4 0.7 2.1
Derek Fisher 35 73 PG 107.2 14.0 107.3 -0.47 10.3 42.3 35.6 83.6 13.0 14.0 2.3 24.7 41.8 1.3 7.1 0.3 2.1
Lamar Odom 30 82 PF 110.1 18.0 101.6 2.23 12.4 51.0 31.5 68.0 15.0 15.8 1.1 27.2 24.0 8.7 26.2 1.9 1.5
A. Bynum 22 84 C 117.8 19.9 103.0 2.23 17.1 57.1 0.0 73.1 5.6 14.3 -3.2 37.4 0.1 10.5 20.9 3.9 0.9
S. Brown 24 76 SG 104.3 18.1 106.3 -0.54 14.1 46.6 32.6 79.5 9.9 11.8 0.2 21.5 32.1 2.2 9.7 1.5 1.8
J. Farmar 23 74 PG 106.5 18.1 107.1 -1.34 14.4 47.8 38.7 67.7 14.0 14.3 1.1 16.5 46.3 0.9 9.0 0.5 1.9
Luke Walton 29 80 SF 95.7 17.0 107.1 -2.23 9.1 34.6 34.6 50.0 21.9 12.7 5.9 7.7 25.0 4.0 10.6 0.2 1.7
Josh Powell 27 81 PF 90.1 18.5 107.7 -2.09 10.5 36.4 43.8 65.7 8.7 15.6 -1.6 17.5 8.0 8.5 13.6 0.7 0.8
Sasha Vujacic 25 79 SG 112.2 15.1 106.9 -1.21 11.7 50.6 31.4 84.8 10.0 10.9 1.4 19.3 50.3 4.7 10.2 0.5 1.7
A. Morrison 25 80 SF 93.3 18.6 109.1 -3.20 11.6 43.7 21.7 62.5 11.4 11.0 1.1 8.5 24.5 5.3 10.9 0.6 0.6
DJ Mbenga 29 84 C 99.2 16.3 102.5 1.74 10.9 46.3 0.0 50.0 3.7 13.1 -2.5 18.5 0.0 9.9 18.0 6.1 0.7

East #4 Boston Celtics (62-37)

Coach: Doc Rivers
SRS: 3.37 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.6 (22nd of 30)
Offensive Rating: 107.7 (15th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.8 (5th of 30)

How They Got Here:
Won NBA Eastern Conference Finals (4-2) versus Orlando Magic
Won NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-2) versus Cleveland Cavaliers
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-1) versus Miami Heat

2010 Celtics Playoff Stats

Regular Season Four Factors:

Team eFG% Rank TOV% Rank ORB% Rank FT/FGA Rank
Boston Celtics 0.522 5 0.145 27 0.228 28 0.248 6
Boston Celtics - Opp 0.487 9 0.149 2 0.262 12 0.251 24

Roster (w/ Combined 2010 Regular-Season + Playoff Stats)Glossary

Player Ag Ht Pos ORtg %Pos DRtg DPA P36 2P% 3P% FT% AsR ToR PpR FTr 3td OR% DR% Bk% St%
Rajon Rondo 23 73 PG 110.7 23.2 102.6 0.79 13.9 52.4 24.5 63.1 43.4 18.4 9.5 33.3 8.6 4.2 10.7 0.3 3.2
Paul Pierce 32 78 SF 112.7 23.1 104.2 1.11 19.3 48.9 40.9 84.4 15.4 15.7 -0.9 48.7 31.2 2.3 14.1 1.0 1.8
Ray Allen 34 77 SG 114.8 19.0 107.1 -0.54 16.7 54.5 37.6 89.6 12.6 12.2 0.6 25.9 42.4 1.9 9.0 0.7 1.2
Kevin Garnett 33 83 PF 111.0 21.4 100.7 2.32 17.2 51.6 16.7 83.3 15.1 11.4 1.0 26.2 0.6 5.0 24.5 2.1 1.7
K. Perkins 25 82 C 102.9 17.3 100.7 2.78 12.5 59.2 0.0 58.2 5.9 23.5 -5.3 53.3 0.7 8.9 24.0 5.1 0.7
Glen Davis 24 81 PF 105.3 19.7 104.6 0.11 13.4 45.7 0.0 70.6 5.2 14.3 -3.2 55.2 1.9 12.3 14.2 1.3 1.4
Tony Allen 28 76 SG 101.5 19.3 100.4 1.56 13.3 52.8 0.0 63.5 11.8 19.4 -2.3 45.3 2.8 6.7 11.9 1.9 3.4
R. Wallace 35 82 PF 101.2 18.6 100.2 2.66 14.6 50.5 29.6 77.6 6.6 9.5 -0.7 20.7 44.1 2.7 18.7 3.1 2.2
Michael Finley 36 79 SG 103.1 12.6 107.7 -2.18 9.7 45.9 38.0 58.8 8.7 10.8 1.3 8.4 45.3 1.0 10.9 0.6 0.9
Nate Robinson 25 69 PG 106.8 24.7 109.2 -1.41 18.5 46.9 38.6 74.0 24.6 13.5 3.1 14.6 45.7 2.9 8.6 0.4 2.4
S. Williams 26 81 PF 117.8 15.7 102.5 1.51 12.3 52.8 0.0 76.9 5.0 16.8 -2.9 81.3 0.8 9.7 19.9 2.7 1.2
M. Daniels 29 78 SG 101.5 15.9 106.6 -1.55 11.3 52.8 20.7 63.3 11.0 15.0 0.1 23.1 11.2 4.0 9.0 0.5 1.5

2010 Season Series

5-Year Results: Regular-SeasonPlayoffs

Series schedule
Game 1 @ LAL - Thursday, June 3 (TV: ABC)
Game 2 @ LAL - Sunday, June 6 (TV: ABC)
Game 3 @ BOS - Tuesday, June 8 (TV: ABC)
Game 4 @ BOS - Thursday, June 10 (TV: ABC)
Game 5 @ BOS - Sunday, June 13 (TV: ABC)
Game 6 @ LAL - Tuesday, June 15 (TV: ABC)
Game 7 @ LAL - Thursday, June 17 (TV: ABC)
Picks Most Likely Second Opinion
SPM "True Skill" Projection says: Lakers in 6 Lakers in 7
SRS says: Lakers in 6 Lakers in 7
SRS (reg. season + playoffs) says: Lakers in 6 Lakers in 7
I say: Lakers in 7 Lakers in 6

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16 Responses to “Mega 2010 NBA Finals Preview: L.A. Lakers vs. Boston Celtics”

  1. Ryan. Says:

    I got the Lakers in 6 this time around. Believe I had them in 7 last time, so who knows. All I know is Boston really seemed to click into gear a round or so again.

  2. Mike G Says:

    Am I still the only one who does series-by-series 'advanced' stats?
    http://www.apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3108

  3. Neil Paine Says:

    You don't have to be... Do you want to be?

  4. Mike G Says:

    No.

  5. Ryan. Says:

    If I had more than 3 clear hours to myself each day, I'd break out the 'ol Excel. Unfortunately, the time I spend online these days is mostly relegated to my off-time during work, in which I debate layman basketball at casual forums. With 16 year olds, mind you. Drunken bar arguments will never die. :(

  6. Mike G Says:

    Actually, while not explicitly part of this blog post, these 2 links lead to the raw series totals for the Finalists:
    2010 Celtics Playoff Stats
    2010 Lakers Playoff Stats

    Well, they don't come across as links, but they are in the opening post.
    So the raw numbers are available for anyone's use. I find series stats fascinating, myself. They're like a microcosm of a 2-team league.

  7. chibi Says:

    the celtics were a middling team in the category of DRB% during the regular season. In the playoffs, they are that the top of that category. How much of that can we attribute to Miami, Cleveland, and Orlando being below average performers in the ORB% percentage in the regular season?

    Are the Celtics great defensive rebounders, or not?

  8. Joel Says:

    A huge part of the Celtics' disparity between regular season and playoff performance has to do with minutes.

    During the regular season:

    Rondo played 74.9% of available minutes
    Allen played 71.3% of available minutes
    Pierce played 60.9% of available minutes
    Perkins played 54.4% of available minutes
    Garnett played 52.1% of available minutes

    During the postseason:

    Rondo has played 82.1% of available minutes
    Pierce has played 79.3% of available minutes
    Allen has played 76.2% of available minutes
    Garnett has played 63.9% of available minutes
    Perkins has played 51.0% of available mintues.

    That's a huge jump for the big four, at the expense of mediocrities like Scalabrine, Williams, and the horrifyingly inconsistent Tony Allen.

    Doesn't hurt that Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace have elevated their game during the playoffs.

  9. Dave Says:

    Joel, did you adjust those regular season minutes for games missed? I don't think you can really consider them available minutes if the player was injured; besides that is a better estimate to compare to the postseason where they have played every game. Then you get
    Rajon Rondo 76%
    Ray Allen 73%
    Paul Pierce 71%
    Kevin Garnett 62%
    Kendrick Perkins 58%
    Is what I get for the regular season, so you can see that Perkins burn has gone down almost as much as Pierce's has gone up, which is what I would expect after the Orlando Series.
    I suspect that most of scalabrine's minutes were due to injury (to other players) in regular season, and Nate Robinson has probably impacted the guard positions...This is born out by the lineup data at BasketballValue.com where the Big 5 play 1150 minutes together (or 35% of the potential 69 games they played), the next most used lineup only played 190 minutes...

    What is more impressive is if you look at the lineup data at Basketballvalue.com You will see that Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Garnett and Big Baby has been played for 77 min in playoffs, for Ortg - Drtg of 10 (cf starting 5's MP of 360 and OR-DR ~ 4). This lineup only played 20 minutes in regular season! and had negative differential - so Doc seems to have gone with something he didn't really test out / or use successfully in regular season ...

    Top 5 units with 'Sheed during the playoffs all have negative points differential ...

    The Lakers seem to be limited by Bynum's Injury, particularly it seems they can't play an Odom / Bynum front court as much, nor is either lineup with Bynum as effective in the playoffs as in the regular season. They are harder to analyse as they have a clear best perimeter lineup of Fisher - Kobe - Artest; but use the three big men for the majority of the minutes - those 3 lineups played 1460 minutes for the lakers in the regular season, or 47% of possible minutes

  10. DSMok1 Says:

    Neil--I'd love to see series-by-series advanced stats (seconding MikeG's request).

    Also--could you include minutes played and games played in your tables above for the total season stats?

  11. Neil Paine Says:

    I can probably data-dump series-by-series advanced stats at some point before the Finals.

    The tables are sorted by minutes played, but I don't think there's any room to add G and MP to them w/o pushing something else off the edge. I had to abbreviate names just to make room the stats you see now.

  12. DSMok1 Says:

    Here's the SPM Minutes-adjusted breakdown for this series:
    LAL vs BOS
    4 to 0 8.8%
    4 to 1 20.8%
    4 to 2 15.7%
    4 to 3 20.9%
    3 to 4 10.1%
    2 to 4 14.1%
    1 to 4 6.2%
    0 to 4 3.3%

    Margin
    8.17 6.33
    LAL BOS
    66.2% 33.8%

    I'm still using Neil's latest SPM here.

  13. Joel Says:

    I opted to include games missed as part of the overall minute share, to explain why the Celtics were so mediocre in the regular season.

  14. angry smiley Says:

    Lakers are going to win this final! Game 1 has been won and Gasol has surely proven himself. Gooo Lakers!
    D.
    angry smiley

  15. DSMok1 Says:

    I made an error on my previous post--I forgot the 2-3-2 distribution. Corrected:

    LAL vs BOS
    4 to 0 8.8%
    4 to 1 13.6%
    4 to 2 22.9%
    4 to 3 20.9%
    3 to 4 10.1%
    2 to 4 9.7%
    1 to 4 10.7%
    0 to 4 3.3%

    Margin
    8.17 6.33
    LAL BOS
    66.2% 33.8%

  16. Neil Paine Says:

    That's why I picked Boston in 5 for the TrueHoop contest -- because of the 2-3-2, they were most likely to win in 5 if they win at all. Although, after last night, Celts in 5 (or in anything) looks pretty unlikely.