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Best Offensive Games of 2009-10 (*according to statistical +/-)

Posted by Neil Paine on July 22, 2010

In preparation for the updated "Who Rules the Top Defenses?" post I'm planning to write next week, I had to run the advanced stats for every player-game of the 2010 season (all 26,488 of them, including the playoffs), in addition to SRS scores for defenses only. Since I now have that data completed, today I thought I might as well make a post out of it and list the best opponent-adjusted offensive games of the 2010 campaign (according to offensive SPM, at least).

What's offensive SPM, you ask? Well, as part of my "Optimizing the '95 Rockets" series in April, I wanted to use a statistical plus/minus method for offensive performances only. My first attempt at this was to apply Dan Rosenbaum's original regression to the data, but later I found a larger, more recent dataset at a site called 3 Hoops Fans. To make a long story short, I eventually came up with this regression for OSPM:

Coefficients:
             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -8.253848   1.502898  -5.492 1.22e-07 ***
pts40        0.895628   0.112222   7.981 1.17e-13 ***
tsa40       -0.851185   0.197830  -4.303 2.66e-05 ***
tsa40sq      0.009722   0.004876   1.994  0.04756 *
3pa40        0.323769   0.068934   4.697 4.95e-06 ***
ast40        0.759086   0.078240   9.702  < 2e-16 ***
orb40        0.779396   0.156450   4.982 1.37e-06 ***
tov40       -1.319595   0.262863  -5.020 1.15e-06 ***
mpg          0.068744   0.023236   2.959  0.00347 **
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 

Residual standard error: 1.495 on 197 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.7598,     Adjusted R-squared: 0.7501
F-statistic:  77.9 on 8 and 197 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

And that's what I'll be using for the post today.

Now, there's also the matter of adjusting for the opponent's defense. As I previously mentioned, I ran an SRS-like method on every game of the 2010 season (including playoffs), and these were the results I found (negative scores are good, btw):

Rank Team DSRS Rank Team DSRS
1 BOS -4.65 16 HOU -0.04
2 ORL -4.49 17 ATL 0.17
3 CHA -4.27 18 MEM 2.02
4 MIL -4.17 19 SAC 2.04
5 LAL -3.70 20 WAS 2.12
6 SAS -3.37 21 LAC 2.12
7 OKC -3.32 22 NOH 2.19
8 MIA -3.08 23 PHO 2.65
9 CLE -2.53 24 NJN 3.09
10 CHI -2.05 25 PHI 3.12
11 UTA -1.91 26 MIN 3.30
12 DAL -1.50 27 GSW 3.56
13 IND -0.73 28 DET 4.02
14 POR -0.26 29 NYK 4.06
15 DEN -0.13 30 TOR 5.75

To use these in the rankings of games, you simply subtract the opponent's score divided by 5 from the player's OSPM, and boom -- you've adjusted for the quality of the opposing D.

Anyway, here are the Best Offensive Games of 2009-10 (*according to statistical +/-)...

40 or more minutes played

Player Date Team Opp GS MP FG FGA FG3 FG3A FT FTA ORB AST TOV PTS Rating
Andre Miller 1/30/2010 POR DAL 1 42.2 22 31 1 1 7 8 1 2 2 52 23.77
LeBron James 12/30/2009 CLE ATL 1 43.2 15 23 4 6 14 16 3 6 3 48 22.59
LeBron James 4/19/2010 CLE CHI 1 41.1 16 23 2 4 6 6 1 8 2 40 22.02
Brandon Jennings 11/14/2009 MIL GSW 1 40.7 21 34 7 8 6 8 1 5 4 55 21.60
Chauncey Billups 2/5/2010 DEN LAL 1 40.4 12 20 9 13 6 8 0 8 2 39 21.18
Deron Williams 4/6/2010 UTA OKC 1 42.4 14 23 4 7 10 11 0 10 1 42 20.94
Dwyane Wade 1/6/2010 MIA BOS 1 43.1 15 34 3 7 11 16 5 7 2 44 20.59
Carmelo Anthony 3/15/2010 DEN HOU 1 40.0 18 35 3 5 6 7 5 3 1 45 20.44
Dwyane Wade 3/6/2010 MIA ATL 1 42.0 10 25 4 9 14 18 1 10 1 38 20.05
Brandon Roy 10/31/2009 POR HOU 1 41.3 12 20 5 7 13 13 1 4 3 42 19.90
LeBron James 2/6/2010 CLE NYK 1 43.9 17 31 6 12 7 7 1 8 5 47 19.79
LeBron James 3/24/2010 CLE NOH 1 40.8 15 22 1 5 7 8 2 9 3 38 19.63
Chris Bosh 1/20/2010 TOR MIL 1 42.7 15 26 0 1 14 15 2 4 1 44 19.47
Stephen Jackson 1/12/2010 CHA HOU 1 43.3 15 22 3 5 10 11 2 3 2 43 19.43
Kobe Bryant 5/25/2010 LAL PHO 1 44.7 15 22 6 9 2 4 1 10 2 38 19.07
LeBron James 1/10/2010 CLE POR 1 45.3 13 19 3 4 12 14 0 8 3 41 18.88
LeBron James 2/18/2010 CLE DEN 1 47.0 15 33 1 9 12 17 1 15 3 43 18.69
Kobe Bryant 12/29/2009 LAL GSW 1 42.9 13 27 2 6 16 16 1 11 1 44 18.34
Brandon Roy 12/25/2009 POR DEN 1 43.4 16 26 3 6 6 6 2 4 2 41 18.13
Kevin Durant 1/31/2010 OKC GSW 1 40.1 16 21 2 3 11 11 3 2 4 45 17.75
Luis Scola 3/13/2010 HOU NJN 1 41.3 20 25 0 0 4 6 6 3 4 44 17.73
Deron Williams 12/14/2009 UTA MIN 1 41.1 11 20 2 4 14 18 0 13 1 38 17.72
LeBron James 2/4/2010 CLE MIA 1 40.1 9 16 1 4 17 21 2 8 4 36 17.70
Brandon Roy 1/2/2010 POR GSW 1 41.4 12 16 1 2 12 14 3 5 1 37 17.70
Kevin Durant 4/6/2010 OKC UTA 1 43.5 13 29 7 13 12 12 2 4 3 45 17.49
Brandon Roy 12/20/2009 POR MIA 1 40.6 11 14 5 5 1 1 2 8 3 28 17.41
Dwyane Wade 3/18/2010 MIA ORL 1 45.4 12 26 3 7 9 10 3 7 1 36 17.33
Gilbert Arenas 12/18/2009 WAS GSW 1 43.1 15 25 4 10 11 16 1 13 5 45 17.30
Brook Lopez 3/26/2010 NJN DET 1 40.7 14 17 0 0 9 9 6 1 1 37 17.26
Carmelo Anthony 11/27/2009 DEN NYK 1 46.0 17 28 1 4 15 16 3 5 3 50 17.10

35-40 minutes played

Player Date Team Opp GS MP FG FGA FG3 FG3A FT FTA ORB AST TOV PTS Rating
Jason Richardson 4/22/2010 PHO POR 1 37.1 13 19 8 12 8 10 2 2 0 42 29.59
Ben Gordon 4/9/2010 DET MIA 1 36.6 12 21 7 11 8 8 0 3 1 39 25.69
LeBron James 4/25/2010 CLE CHI 1 36.4 11 17 6 9 9 10 0 11 2 37 24.54
LeBron James 5/7/2010 CLE BOS 1 39.3 14 22 2 3 8 9 2 7 1 38 24.35
LeBron James 12/13/2009 CLE OKC 1 38.6 16 29 5 8 7 10 0 6 1 44 24.33
Manu Ginobili 4/2/2010 SAS ORL 1 35.4 13 25 3 6 14 17 0 5 2 43 23.62
Carmelo Anthony 4/17/2010 DEN UTA 1 38.3 18 25 2 5 4 4 1 5 0 42 22.79
Deron Williams 3/9/2010 UTA CHI 1 36.6 11 15 3 5 3 4 0 17 1 28 22.37
Vince Carter 2/8/2010 ORL NOH 1 38.1 19 27 6 10 4 4 0 2 2 48 21.99
Nate Robinson 1/1/2010 NYK ATL 0 38.4 18 24 3 5 2 5 3 8 4 41 21.64
Manu Ginobili 3/8/2010 SAS CLE 1 36.9 12 23 7 11 7 7 3 5 2 38 21.52
LeBron James 2/25/2010 CLE BOS 1 36.0 11 23 3 6 11 15 1 9 2 36 21.20
LeBron James 11/20/2009 CLE IND 1 37.9 13 25 1 3 13 14 2 7 2 40 20.95
Dirk Nowitzki 3/29/2010 DAL DEN 1 37.3 7 17 4 5 16 17 3 10 2 34 20.78
Steve Nash 5/27/2010 PHO LAL 1 35.4 12 20 2 6 3 5 2 11 2 29 20.49
Dirk Nowitzki 11/3/2009 DAL UTA 1 39.1 12 22 1 3 15 16 2 5 0 40 20.34
Brandon Roy 1/8/2010 POR LAL 1 37.9 9 11 1 2 13 14 0 6 0 32 20.33
Kobe Bryant 5/17/2010 LAL PHO 1 35.5 13 23 3 6 11 12 0 5 2 40 20.28
O.J. Mayo 11/1/2009 MEM DEN 1 37.8 17 25 4 8 2 2 1 4 0 40 20.05
Manu Ginobili 3/28/2010 SAS BOS 1 35.9 9 19 2 8 8 8 1 7 0 28 19.98
Jamal Crawford 4/3/2010 ATL DET 0 35.1 10 18 6 9 3 4 1 6 1 29 19.92
Ray Allen 12/1/2009 BOS CHA 1 35.8 6 9 5 6 10 10 1 5 1 27 19.75
Chauncey Billups 1/20/2010 DEN GSW 1 38.0 11 19 6 9 9 11 0 8 2 37 19.52
Richard Hamilton 2/17/2010 DET ORL 1 36.4 12 18 3 6 9 9 3 3 2 36 19.27
Marcus Camby 4/12/2010 POR OKC 1 36.2 12 16 0 0 6 8 5 3 0 30 19.25
Chauncey Billups 2/25/2010 DEN GSW 1 37.3 13 19 6 8 5 5 0 9 2 37 19.12
David West 12/29/2009 NOH HOU 1 39.1 18 30 2 4 6 8 2 4 3 44 18.93
Danny Granger 3/26/2010 IND UTA 1 37.8 14 23 5 10 11 15 0 5 3 44 18.63
Al Harrington 11/27/2009 NYK DEN 0 38.4 14 24 4 8 9 13 5 1 1 41 18.62
Chris Paul 11/6/2009 NOH TOR 1 35.9 8 13 1 3 4 4 0 18 1 21 18.32

30-35 minutes played

Player Date Team Opp GS MP FG FGA FG3 FG3A FT FTA ORB AST TOV PTS Rating
J.R. Smith 12/23/2009 DEN ATL 0 30.3 15 25 10 17 1 6 0 3 0 41 30.71
Manu Ginobili 11/9/2009 SAS TOR 0 32.2 8 15 6 8 14 16 1 8 1 36 26.24
Brandon Roy 3/27/2010 POR NOH 1 32.0 12 14 1 2 3 5 1 7 0 28 24.54
Jason Terry 11/25/2009 DAL HOU 0 31.8 10 11 4 4 3 3 0 10 0 27 23.73
Deron Williams 2/27/2010 UTA HOU 1 32.6 13 17 4 4 5 6 1 13 4 35 23.57
Matt Bonner 12/7/2009 SAS UTA 0 32.0 10 14 4 7 4 5 4 3 1 28 22.36
Marcus Thornton 2/23/2010 NOH CLE 0 31.2 15 22 3 7 4 4 1 2 2 37 22.25
Jose Calderon 3/13/2010 TOR GSW 0 32.0 8 12 7 8 1 1 0 12 1 24 21.13
Vince Carter 3/17/2010 ORL SAS 1 30.0 7 11 3 4 7 8 1 8 1 24 21.06
Kobe Bryant 11/6/2009 LAL MEM 1 33.7 19 30 0 0 3 4 1 1 0 41 21.03
Steve Nash 2/5/2010 PHO SAC 1 32.3 7 12 4 7 5 5 3 10 1 23 20.84
Dwyane Wade 1/22/2010 MIA WAS 1 34.0 12 19 4 7 4 5 0 10 3 32 20.73
Dwyane Wade 3/10/2010 MIA LAC 1 30.3 6 12 0 0 15 17 3 8 1 27 20.26
Goran Dragic 1/25/2010 PHO UTA 0 31.6 10 13 6 7 6 8 1 3 2 32 18.55
Mo Williams 4/8/2010 CLE CHI 1 34.9 12 24 6 11 5 5 1 10 4 35 18.54
Danny Granger 3/21/2010 IND OKC 1 32.5 11 21 2 8 8 9 2 2 0 32 18.44
Jason Richardson 4/20/2010 PHO POR 1 30.5 11 16 4 5 3 4 1 0 0 29 18.38
Martell Webster 2/16/2010 POR LAC 1 33.7 9 13 7 11 3 3 0 3 1 28 18.29
Kevin Durant 3/19/2010 OKC TOR 1 31.8 7 16 0 4 17 18 4 3 0 31 18.17
Al Horford 2/17/2010 ATL LAC 1 33.4 12 15 0 0 7 9 4 4 1 31 18.07
Jamal Crawford 11/27/2009 ATL PHI 0 32.7 9 14 3 6 3 3 2 5 0 24 17.62
Stephen Curry 3/15/2010 GSW LAL 1 33.8 11 19 5 9 2 2 0 9 0 29 17.58
Jarrett Jack 2/20/2010 TOR WAS 1 31.4 6 9 3 4 8 8 2 8 3 23 17.49
Chris Bosh 11/6/2009 TOR NOH 1 30.4 9 9 1 1 8 11 1 2 0 27 17.47
Brandon Roy 10/29/2009 POR DEN 1 33.1 6 16 2 6 16 18 0 5 1 30 17.41
Corey Maggette 1/5/2010 GSW DEN 1 32.5 12 16 0 0 11 12 1 3 1 35 17.40
Jason Richardson 4/29/2010 PHO POR 1 32.6 10 16 5 8 3 3 0 2 0 28 17.35
Dwyane Wade 1/19/2010 MIA IND 1 31.1 12 20 4 6 4 8 0 3 1 32 17.34
Toney Douglas 3/13/2010 NYK DAL 1 30.9 8 10 4 4 1 2 0 8 0 21 17.29
Mike Bibby 3/5/2010 ATL GSW 1 32.6 8 10 7 9 0 0 0 5 0 23 17.22

25-30 minutes played

Player Date Team Opp GS MP FG FGA FG3 FG3A FT FTA ORB AST TOV PTS Rating
Nicolas Batum 2/27/2010 POR MIN 1 29.2 11 16 5 8 4 4 2 7 0 31 26.94
Matt Bonner 11/23/2009 SAS MIL 0 25.4 7 10 6 8 3 3 2 2 0 23 26.07
J.R. Smith 3/13/2010 DEN MEM 0 28.5 11 16 7 10 1 2 0 2 0 30 24.85
Dwyane Wade 1/23/2010 MIA SAC 1 29.8 11 15 0 3 5 7 1 8 0 27 23.30
Rodrigue Beaubois 3/27/2010 DAL GSW 0 29.9 15 22 9 11 1 1 0 3 1 40 22.91
Stephen Jackson 1/16/2010 CHA PHO 1 29.3 11 17 4 6 3 3 1 8 1 29 21.99
Gilbert Arenas 10/31/2009 WAS NJN 1 29.4 9 13 3 4 11 12 0 7 3 32 21.87
Marcus Thornton 3/1/2010 NOH SAS 0 27.1 12 19 6 7 0 1 2 2 2 30 21.48
Jameer Nelson 3/1/2010 ORL PHI 1 27.5 8 11 2 4 4 6 0 10 1 22 21.45
Mike Dunleavy 1/13/2010 IND PHO 0 26.4 9 14 4 7 8 8 2 1 0 30 20.91
Chris Duhon 1/3/2010 NYK IND 1 25.1 6 8 6 7 0 0 1 7 0 18 20.69
Greg Oden 11/23/2009 POR CHI 1 26.8 7 8 0 0 10 12 6 1 2 24 20.26
Goran Dragic 4/3/2010 PHO MIL 0 26.5 7 12 2 4 4 4 2 6 0 20 20.08
Luke Ridnour 4/14/2010 MIL BOS 0 26.5 6 6 3 3 2 2 0 8 1 17 19.93
Lamar Odom 2/3/2010 LAL CHA 0 27.8 8 10 0 0 3 3 6 3 0 19 19.93
Vince Carter 4/14/2010 ORL PHI 1 25.4 6 8 4 5 1 1 1 6 0 17 19.74
Ben Gordon 2/5/2010 DET IND 0 25.3 10 17 4 7 2 2 1 0 0 26 19.59
Paul Pierce 3/3/2010 BOS CHA 1 26.5 9 13 4 6 5 5 0 4 3 27 19.35
Steve Nash 2/24/2010 PHO PHI 1 29.4 8 9 2 3 2 3 0 13 2 20 19.32
Andray Blatche 10/31/2009 WAS NJN 0 27.7 15 18 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 30 18.92
Charlie Villanueva 1/12/2010 DET WAS 0 29.6 9 13 5 6 0 0 4 1 0 23 18.73
Will Bynum 11/15/2009 DET DAL 0 29.1 11 16 1 2 4 4 0 3 0 27 18.71
Vince Carter 4/4/2010 ORL MEM 1 29.0 9 18 2 5 6 7 3 6 1 26 18.35
Jared Dudley 4/2/2010 PHO DET 0 29.5 7 9 6 7 0 0 1 5 0 20 18.24
LeBron James 12/27/2009 CLE HOU 1 29.4 12 20 2 5 3 4 2 6 1 29 18.23
Amare Stoudemire 3/3/2010 PHO LAC 1 28.7 12 16 0 0 6 7 5 1 1 30 18.13
Jamal Crawford 3/11/2010 ATL WAS 0 29.6 8 16 4 7 9 11 0 3 1 29 17.93
Craig Smith 3/25/2010 LAC HOU 0 25.5 10 13 0 0 5 10 4 2 0 25 17.62
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 12/23/2009 CLE SAC 0 26.1 10 14 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 25 17.48
Tony Parker 10/31/2009 SAS SAC 1 26.7 10 16 0 0 4 4 0 7 1 24 17.45

20-25 minutes played

Player Date Team Opp GS MP FG FGA FG3 FG3A FT FTA ORB AST TOV PTS Rating
Chris Bosh 12/5/2009 TOR CHI 1 22.3 9 12 0 0 7 7 7 2 0 25 32.90
Ryan Anderson 3/28/2010 ORL DEN 0 20.1 7 8 4 5 1 1 2 2 0 19 26.11
Chris Paul 11/9/2009 NOH LAC 1 24.9 10 14 2 3 2 2 1 10 1 24 25.52
Luke Ridnour 1/22/2010 MIL TOR 0 23.7 9 13 3 6 6 6 0 4 0 27 24.57
Sergio Rodriguez 11/29/2009 SAC NOH 0 24.0 9 14 2 4 4 4 0 5 0 24 23.95
Amare Stoudemire 12/30/2009 PHO BOS 1 22.7 11 14 0 1 4 6 3 0 0 26 23.46
Manu Ginobili 3/19/2010 SAS GSW 1 21.9 10 15 2 4 1 1 0 11 1 23 23.45
Acie Law 3/17/2010 CHI DAL 0 21.4 7 8 1 2 7 7 2 3 1 22 22.94
Charlie Villanueva 4/6/2010 DET PHI 0 23.2 8 11 4 6 5 6 0 1 0 25 22.85
Matt Bonner 3/13/2010 SAS LAC 0 21.6 8 9 5 6 0 0 1 1 0 21 21.83
Ryan Anderson 4/9/2010 ORL NYK 0 22.1 8 11 3 5 0 0 4 3 1 19 21.71
Jodie Meeks 4/12/2010 PHI MIA 0 23.8 8 12 5 9 0 0 1 2 0 21 21.70
J.R. Smith 11/17/2009 DEN TOR 0 21.9 11 17 5 9 2 2 0 1 2 29 21.22
Corey Maggette 11/14/2009 GSW MIL 0 21.8 7 11 2 3 9 9 0 4 1 25 21.07
Kyle Korver 5/8/2010 UTA LAL 0 23.8 9 10 5 5 0 0 0 1 1 23 20.99
Nick Collison 12/2/2009 OKC PHI 0 20.7 8 9 0 1 2 2 5 0 0 18 20.63
Dirk Nowitzki 4/12/2010 DAL LAC 1 22.6 9 13 3 3 4 4 1 3 1 25 20.47
Aaron Brooks 1/27/2010 HOU DEN 1 20.3 8 11 5 6 1 2 0 0 0 22 20.12
Eddie House 10/30/2009 BOS CHI 0 22.1 9 13 4 7 0 0 1 1 1 22 19.60
Al Horford 12/2/2009 ATL TOR 1 23.4 10 12 0 0 4 5 4 1 0 24 19.22
Rasheed Wallace 11/3/2009 BOS PHI 0 23.9 7 10 6 8 0 0 0 2 0 20 19.18
Marreese Speights 4/14/2010 PHI ORL 0 23.1 9 14 0 0 5 5 4 0 0 23 19.01
Keith Bogans 4/12/2010 SAS MIN 0 21.4 5 7 5 7 2 2 0 5 0 17 18.72
Mehmet Okur 1/23/2010 UTA NJN 1 21.1 8 12 1 3 3 4 5 1 2 20 18.38
Jason Williams 12/30/2009 ORL MIL 0 24.9 5 7 5 5 1 2 0 7 1 16 18.18
Jerryd Bayless 1/8/2010 POR LAL 0 21.1 5 9 1 1 10 12 0 3 1 21 18.11
Matt Bonner 11/29/2009 SAS PHI 0 20.6 6 8 4 6 0 0 1 1 0 16 18.08
Anthony Johnson 11/26/2009 ORL ATL 0 21.1 6 10 3 5 2 2 1 3 0 17 17.98
Glen Davis 6/10/2010 BOS LAL 0 22.5 7 10 0 0 4 4 4 0 0 18 17.51
Sam Young 4/2/2010 MEM NOH 0 20.9 7 8 0 0 5 6 3 1 0 19 17.35

10-20 minutes played

Player Date Team Opp GS MP FG FGA FG3 FG3A FT FTA ORB AST TOV PTS Rating
Goran Dragic 5/7/2010 PHO SAS 0 17.5 10 13 5 5 1 3 1 2 0 26 39.40
Keyon Dooling 3/12/2010 NJN OKC 0 15.2 4 5 2 2 5 5 0 7 0 15 31.28
Willie Green 11/25/2009 PHI BOS 0 13.6 5 7 2 2 6 6 0 4 1 18 30.87
Mickael Pietrus 4/1/2010 ORL DAL 0 18.4 7 8 6 6 4 6 0 0 1 24 29.58
C.J. Miles 3/9/2010 UTA CHI 0 18.5 9 12 6 7 2 4 0 0 1 26 26.88
Tim Duncan 3/19/2010 SAS GSW 1 13.8 8 8 0 0 1 4 1 5 0 17 26.77
Vince Carter 10/30/2009 ORL NJN 1 14.7 6 8 2 3 2 2 1 4 1 16 26.38
Luke Ridnour 12/9/2009 MIL TOR 0 14.6 6 9 1 1 2 2 0 6 0 15 26.37
Jannero Pargo 11/23/2009 CHI POR 0 13.7 4 9 2 3 5 5 1 2 0 15 26.13
Charlie Villanueva 11/18/2009 DET POR 1 16.2 9 15 2 4 0 0 2 0 1 20 25.59
Rafer Alston 12/15/2009 NJN CLE 0 18.6 7 14 4 7 2 2 0 3 1 20 25.02
Aaron Gray 3/31/2010 NOH WAS 0 12.8 4 6 0 0 4 4 6 0 1 12 24.40
Nate Robinson 5/28/2010 BOS ORL 0 13.1 4 10 2 6 3 4 0 2 0 13 24.17
Goran Dragic 4/22/2010 PHO POR 0 10.0 3 6 3 5 1 2 0 1 0 10 23.99
Michael Finley 3/15/2010 BOS DET 0 13.6 6 7 3 4 0 0 0 2 1 15 23.69
Rasheed Wallace 5/26/2010 BOS ORL 0 18.0 7 9 3 5 4 4 0 0 1 21 22.99
C.J. Watson 11/9/2009 GSW MIN 0 10.8 5 6 3 4 0 0 0 1 0 13 22.66
Nate Robinson 3/2/2010 BOS DET 0 15.1 5 7 4 5 0 0 1 1 0 14 21.19
Roy Hibbert 2/25/2010 IND MIL 0 10.9 6 7 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 12 20.99
Jon Brockman 1/12/2010 SAC ORL 0 12.5 2 2 0 0 5 6 5 0 0 9 20.39
Anderson Varejao 3/1/2010 CLE NYK 0 16.3 7 9 0 0 0 0 6 2 0 14 19.81
Nazr Mohammed 1/20/2010 CHA MIA 1 16.1 6 9 0 0 4 8 5 1 2 16 19.64
Alando Tucker 12/1/2009 PHO NYK 0 12.0 4 7 1 1 5 8 3 0 1 14 19.58
Rodney Carney 12/30/2009 PHI SAC 0 15.7 5 6 4 5 0 0 1 0 0 14 19.56
Jonathan Bender 1/26/2010 NYK MIN 0 12.0 4 10 4 7 2 2 1 0 0 14 19.56
Marco Belinelli 11/9/2009 TOR SAS 0 17.3 4 5 4 4 0 0 0 3 0 12 19.52
Ryan Anderson 1/30/2010 ORL ATL 0 17.3 7 11 2 4 0 0 2 1 0 16 19.52
Eddie House 11/3/2009 BOS PHI 0 14.6 4 5 4 5 0 0 0 1 0 12 19.40
D.J. Augustin 12/19/2009 CHA UTA 0 13.7 3 6 1 1 9 10 0 1 0 16 19.31
Sergio Rodriguez 11/23/2009 SAC MEM 0 17.8 6 8 1 1 3 5 0 7 1 16 19.11

Playoffs only, at least 24 minutes played

Player Date Team Opp GS MP FG FGA FG3 FG3A FT FTA ORB AST TOV PTS Rating
Jason Richardson 4/22/2010 PHO POR 1 37.1 13 19 8 12 8 10 2 2 0 42 29.59
LeBron James 4/25/2010 CLE CHI 1 36.4 11 17 6 9 9 10 0 11 2 37 24.54
LeBron James 5/7/2010 CLE BOS 1 39.3 14 22 2 3 8 9 2 7 1 38 24.35
Carmelo Anthony 4/17/2010 DEN UTA 1 38.3 18 25 2 5 4 4 1 5 0 42 22.79
LeBron James 4/19/2010 CLE CHI 1 41.1 16 23 2 4 6 6 1 8 2 40 22.02
Steve Nash 5/27/2010 PHO LAL 1 35.4 12 20 2 6 3 5 2 11 2 29 20.49
Kobe Bryant 5/17/2010 LAL PHO 1 35.5 13 23 3 6 11 12 0 5 2 40 20.28
Kobe Bryant 5/25/2010 LAL PHO 1 44.7 15 22 6 9 2 4 1 10 2 38 19.07
Jason Richardson 4/20/2010 PHO POR 1 30.5 11 16 4 5 3 4 1 0 0 29 18.38
Jameer Nelson 4/18/2010 ORL CHA 1 37.3 10 18 4 8 8 8 0 6 2 32 18.14
Jameer Nelson 4/24/2010 ORL CHA 1 38.3 12 21 5 9 3 3 1 3 0 32 17.90
Jason Richardson 4/29/2010 PHO POR 1 32.6 10 16 5 8 3 3 0 2 0 28 17.35
Josh Smith 4/20/2010 ATL MIL 1 33.3 9 11 0 0 3 3 5 9 2 21 17.18
Steve Nash 5/29/2010 PHO LAL 1 30.3 8 11 2 5 3 3 0 9 2 21 17.00
Jameer Nelson 5/26/2010 ORL BOS 1 30.0 6 10 4 5 8 8 1 5 3 24 16.64
Pau Gasol 4/27/2010 LAL OKC 1 29.8 10 16 0 0 5 5 4 5 1 25 16.52
Pau Gasol 5/10/2010 LAL UTA 1 40.3 12 18 0 1 9 11 7 2 1 33 16.43
Dwyane Wade 4/25/2010 MIA BOS 1 43.4 16 24 5 7 9 14 0 5 6 46 16.05
Jared Dudley 4/26/2010 PHO POR 0 24.6 6 10 5 9 2 2 0 1 1 19 15.92
Dirk Nowitzki 4/29/2010 DAL SAS 1 38.4 13 21 2 4 5 6 1 4 1 33 15.68
Channing Frye 4/26/2010 PHO POR 0 26.9 7 11 3 5 3 3 2 0 0 20 15.63
Steve Nash 4/20/2010 PHO POR 1 29.5 5 11 1 3 2 3 0 16 1 13 15.56
John Salmons 4/24/2010 MIL ATL 1 30.9 9 11 1 1 3 3 0 7 1 22 15.56
Dwyane Wade 4/20/2010 MIA BOS 1 37.2 11 18 5 8 2 7 1 5 1 29 15.38
Ray Allen 5/11/2010 BOS CLE 1 38.1 8 13 6 9 3 3 1 4 0 25 15.28
Kobe Bryant 6/13/2010 LAL BOS 1 43.9 13 27 4 10 8 9 2 4 4 38 15.22
Ray Allen 4/20/2010 BOS MIA 1 33.4 9 13 7 9 0 0 1 3 2 25 15.17
Dirk Nowitzki 4/18/2010 DAL SAS 1 40.4 12 14 0 0 12 12 2 1 1 36 15.11
Caron Butler 4/27/2010 DAL SAS 1 36.6 12 24 3 8 8 9 1 1 0 35 14.63
LeBron James 5/1/2010 CLE BOS 1 43.2 12 24 3 6 8 11 2 7 2 35 14.55

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30 Responses to “Best Offensive Games of 2009-10 (*according to statistical +/-)”

  1. P Middy Says:

    I like the breakdown by minutes played. Nice touch. I hope Dragic has a good season. When that kid is on (as we can see above), he is something to watch.

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    For real, Dragic's 4th quarter vs. the Spurs was one of the most amazing performances I've ever seen.

  3. DSMok1 Says:

    Should I run a OSPM and DSPM advanced regression, Neil? That more complex scoring term could come in handy for accounting for offense.

  4. DSMok1 Says:

    Excellent work, by the way. I think we're getting closer to a good "game score" using SPM. BTW, I did this same thing for each game in the NBA finals for overall SPM, also adjusting to make sure the totals summed to the efficiency differential in each game. See http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?p=31765#31765 , though I have revised the SPM since then.

  5. Neil Paine Says:

    I think it should probably be broken up into offensive and defensive SPM if possible (it hasn't been possible for the datasets from Rosenbaum and Barzilai, though -- they just created an overall APM score). Most of the team adjustment we're doing comes on defense, because the box score is pretty clueless about D. Offensively, we're actually getting some decent R^2s, but the defensive aspect is where a lot of the error comes in.

  6. DSMok1 Says:

    Right. My Ilardi 6 year and Sill 4 Year data has everything split out, so I can at least get reasonable numbers.

  7. P Middy Says:

    So, could we use the minutes played as factor in increasing the overall score? The fewer the minutes the larger the bonus? Not too much. Just enough to build a weighted master list.

  8. DSMok1 Says:

    P Middy: Just multiply SPM by minutes to get overall contribution.

  9. Neil Paine Says:

    If the numbers look different than they did a second ago, it's not just you -- I went in and edited the post because I screwed up the initial quality of defense adjustment... You don't subtract the entire opponent defensive SRS, you only subtract 1/5 of it.

  10. P Middy Says:

    Nice. Thanks DSMok1.

  11. DSMok1 Says:

    Here are the best 10 overall, sorted by VORP (which is calculated as (SPM+3)*MP/48):
    Player Date Team Opp GS MP FG FGA FG3 FG3A FT FTA ORB AST TOV PTS Rating VORP
    Jason Richardson 4/22/2010 PHO POR 1 37.1 13 19 8 12 8 10 2 2 0 42 29.59 25.19
    Andre Miller 1/30/2010 POR DAL 1 42.2 22 31 1 1 7 8 1 2 2 52 23.77 23.54
    LeBron James 12/30/2009 CLE ATL 1 43.2 15 23 4 6 14 16 3 6 3 48 22.59 23.03
    LeBron James 5/7/2010 CLE BOS 1 39.3 14 22 2 3 8 9 2 7 1 38 24.35 22.39
    LeBron James 12/13/2009 CLE OKC 1 38.6 16 29 5 8 7 10 0 6 1 44 24.33 21.98
    Ben Gordon 4/9/2010 DET MIA 1 36.6 12 21 7 11 8 8 0 3 1 39 25.69 21.88
    LeBron James 4/19/2010 CLE CHI 1 41.1 16 23 2 4 6 6 1 8 2 40 22.02 21.42
    J.R. Smith 12/23/2009 DEN ATL 0 30.3 15 25 10 17 1 6 0 3 0 41 30.71 21.28
    LeBron James 2/18/2010 CLE DEN 1 47 15 33 1 9 12 17 1 15 3 43 18.69 21.24
    Dwyane Wade 1/6/2010 MIA BOS 1 43.1 15 34 3 7 11 16 5 7 2 44 20.59 21.18

  12. huevonkiller Says:

    Thanks for all the charts/graphs DSMok1.

    Interesting work as well Neil.

  13. Westy Says:

    Great stuff, Neil!

  14. DSMok1 Says:

    @ Neil

    I just posted the "ADVANCED SPM" offensive and defensive regressions on APBR, using the same variables I use for the overall one. The offensive one should be solid.

  15. Anon x 2 Says:

    It will be funny going back and seeing Andre Miller having the best or near best offensive game of the season (this was the case before this post, too).

    It was such an anomaly of a performance. not as bad as Delk's 50+ point night. Would make an interesting post. The biggest single game offensive anomalies. Comparing a player's single best game vs their expected range or something.

    Also, I'd love to see this analysis for Kobe's 81. :-D

  16. JTaylor21 Says:

    Surprise, bron's name comes up more times in the regular season and playoffs than the so-called best player in the world (Kobe). Just shows u that no matter how many times people claim that kobe is the superior player, numbers/facts beg to differ.

  17. nimble Says:

    A haven for haters congregation!Jealousy at its best:)
    I love this site..

  18. Anon x 2 Says:

    "Surprise, bron's name comes up more times in the regular season and playoffs than the so-called best player in the world (Kobe). Just shows u that no matter how many times people claim that kobe is the superior player, numbers/facts beg to differ."

    Kobe doesn't have to do as much offensively as Lebron these days. He also played less games than Lebron and less minutes.

    He's also over 30 years old... compared to James' 25 year old body.

    But hey, don't mind Kobe. He'll keep on keeping on despite needing to have his knee repaired surgically and playing with a useless finger that everyone uses to shoot with that might never be fixed. We'll just watch Lebron quit on his team because he bumped his elbow in in locker room once he's done beating up on mediocre teams like the Bulls.

    See how easy this is? :D

  19. huevonkiller Says:

    " he's done beating up on mediocre teams like the Bulls.

    See how easy this is? :D"

    Except smart one, the Bulls are #10 in defensive SRS. Pay attention before you spew nonsense like that.

    No one cares that Kobe is 30, he was inferior back in 2006 as well.

    Even easier for me.

  20. huevonkiller Says:

    "He'll keep on keeping on despite needing to have his knee repaired surgically and playing with a useless finger that everyone uses to shoot with that might never be fixed. We'll just watch Lebron quit on his team because he bumped his elbow in in locker room "

    He'll keep on choking in his prime playoff years with his putrid playoff production (ages 23-28)? Did he also have a finger as an excuse when he was getting bounced by the Pistons and Prime Shaq was on his team? He basically lost that series by himself with that performance. Oh yeah btw, being 25 years old didn't save him back then.

    Good morning.

  21. Alvy Says:

    lol

  22. P Middy Says:

    Even LeBron fans will tell you he quit at the end of game 6 when he refused to foul. I don't think that can be disputed. But they will also tell you that he did so after posting 29, 19, and 10. 3 steals. Otherwise known as "all he had" against the best D in the league. Criticizing is good, keeping it in context is better.

  23. Daniel Song Says:

    I'd be interested in seeing which teams had the best overall offensive games...

  24. DSMok1 Says:

    You can do that with the team game finder... You'd have to calculate the number of possessions yourself with Excel or something if you want it in rating form.

  25. Anon x 2 Says:

    "He'll keep on choking in his prime playoff years with his putrid playoff production (ages 23-28)? Did he also have a finger as an excuse when he was getting bounced by the Pistons and Prime Shaq was on his team? He basically lost that series by himself with that performance. Oh yeah btw, being 25 years old didn't save him back then.

    Good morning."

    http://telepromptedanthems.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/u-mad1.jpg

  26. Ricardo Says:

    "For real, Dragic's 4th quarter vs. the Spurs was one of the most amazing performances I've ever seen."

    As a lifelong Spurs fan, I watched in slack-jawed horror. It looked like Dragic was shooting in a gym by himself.

  27. huevonkiller Says:

    No I live in Miami, I'm ecstatic. :]

  28. Downpuppy Says:

    Am I the only one surprised to see Rodrigue Beaubois here?

  29. Neil Paine Says:

    I'd say any time you score 40 points in 30 minutes (on 15-22 FG, including 9-11 on threes!!), you're probably going to make a list like this...

  30. Sean Says:

    Thanks for the great analysis. It confirms what my eyes saw in the playoffs: J-Rich absolutely *killed* Portland in Round 1!