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BBR Rankings: 2011 Offense and Defense Ratings, Adjusted for Schedule (Week 2 Edition)

Posted by Neil Paine on November 5, 2010

Not sure if I want to make this the new BBR Rankings method or return to maximum likelihood, but these are your team schedule-adjusted offensive & defensive ratings so far in 2011 (negative = good for defenses):

Rank Team Offense Rk Defense Rk Overall
1 MIA 8.15 1 -10.56 2 18.72
2 ORL 3.15 11 -12.25 1 15.40
3 DEN 5.47 7 -6.69 4 12.16
4 LAL 5.84 4 -6.11 6 11.95
5 NOH 3.82 10 -6.94 3 10.75
6 DAL 0.49 14 -6.14 5 6.64
7 ATL 7.32 2 1.28 18 6.04
8 BOS 1.84 13 -2.79 9 4.63
9 SAS 2.59 12 -1.10 11 3.69
10 POR 4.57 9 1.32 19 3.25
11 NYK 0.29 16 -2.39 10 2.68
12 PHO 5.73 6 3.14 21 2.59
13 HOU 6.23 3 4.31 25 1.92
14 PHI -3.70 24 -5.56 7 1.86
15 UTA 0.45 15 0.13 16 0.32
16 GSW 4.87 8 5.11 26 -0.25
17 MEM -1.58 20 -0.72 13 -0.86
18 WAS -1.18 19 0.72 17 -1.89
19 MIL -7.18 26 -3.28 8 -3.90
20 IND -2.29 23 1.73 20 -4.02
21 TOR -1.10 18 3.29 22 -4.40
22 CHI -1.79 22 3.45 23 -5.25
23 SAC 5.81 5 12.14 30 -6.33
24 CHA -1.01 17 7.21 29 -8.22
25 OKC -1.78 21 7.08 28 -8.86
26 CLE -10.48 29 -1.01 12 -9.46
27 LAC -10.42 28 -0.65 14 -9.77
28 NJN -11.34 30 -0.41 15 -10.93
29 MIN -7.41 27 3.83 24 -11.24
30 DET -5.39 25 7.04 27 -12.43
hca 4.15
lgavg 106.35

Here's how it works... For every game, you can set up a prediction for the home team's offensive and defensive ratings using the following formulae:

Home ORtg = Lg Avg  ORtg + .5*HCA + Home Offense Score + Away Defense Score

Home DRtg = Lg Avg ORtg - .5*HCA + Away Offense Score + Home Defense Score

The ratings above represent the solution that produced the lowest squared errors for the predictions.

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13 Responses to “BBR Rankings: 2011 Offense and Defense Ratings, Adjusted for Schedule (Week 2 Edition)”

  1. DSMok1 Says:

    I like this, but can you switch to efficiency differentials for each game, rather than the score? Efficiency differential would be more accurate.

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    This is based on efficiency differential... Sorry, should have made that clearer. I added links to ORtg/DRtg which hoprefully explain it better.

  3. supersub15 Says:

    I like this system better. Thanks Neil. Will you update it regularly?

  4. Gil Meriken Says:

    Hornets with the defense! Of course, at such an early point in the season, quality of opponent is a larger factor than usual. Orlando's offensive rating must've taken a huge hit from the Miami game.

  5. Neil Paine Says:

    Re: #3 - Yeah, I'm leaning towards it too. It would be every Friday, just like the rankings last year.

  6. DSMok1 Says:

    Neil: can we get the SRS on this site changed to based on efficiency differential, rather than scores? That would be a wonderful improvement!

  7. DSMok1 Says:

    Unless it is already...

  8. Neil Paine Says:

    Trouble is, if we did that, SRS would only go back to 1987 (since it would require the game-by-game boxscore data to calculate possessions). We use raw scoring margin for SRS because, while admittedly less accurate (although not terribly so), it allows us to calculate SRS for all of pro basketball history. I'd rather SRS be slightly inaccurate for 60+ years than only have 23 years of ratings to work with.

  9. DSMok1 Says:

    I see.

    A request for research: could you calculate the effect of rest days on team efficiency differential? Along the lines of NBA Stuffer's work: http://www.nbastuffer.com/2009-2010_NBA_Regular_Season_Rest_Days_Stats.html . It would take a little effort, but nevertheless it could be very interesting.

  10. robinred Says:

    I like this. Hope you can continue.

  11. Ben Says:

    This is great.

  12. Neil Paine Says:

    Cool, so it looks like basically everyone wants this to become the new BBR Rankings method of choice.

  13. Obviousman Says:

    This is a great site. Great methodology. Too bad the results place the the best team so far -- the Lakers -- behind.... DENVER? Better tweak the gears in a hurry, or this site will make like the Rockets and be gone. I invite responses at Obviousman@AOL.com.