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Who’s Over/Underachiving So Far?

Posted by Neil Paine on November 10, 2010

Which players are playing better or worse than we would have expected so far this season? Well, let's look at each player's actual Statistical Plus/Minus (SPM) in 2011 vs. what the simple projection system would have predicted their SPM to be. The overachievers:

Player Age MP SPM MP-1 SPM-1 MP-2 SPM-2 MP-3 SPM-3 Expected Actual-Exp
Elton Brand 31 251 7.36 2297 -1.35 920 -2.73 274 -1.64 -1.59 8.95
Ryan Hollins 26 104 4.23 1223 -4.14 444 -3.79 532 -4.60 -4.08 8.31
Toney Douglas 24 186 7.06 1087 -0.37 0 0.00 0 0.00 -0.36 7.42
Daniel Gibson 24 197 5.96 1068 -1.57 1795 -1.39 1765 0.19 -1.25 7.20
Paul Millsap 25 262 8.42 2277 0.99 2290 2.46 1702 1.31 1.49 6.94
Tyler Hansbrough 25 101 4.07 511 -2.55 0 0.00 0 0.00 -2.52 6.59
Monta Ellis 25 281 6.69 2647 0.23 892 -1.48 3071 1.06 0.14 6.55
Francisco Garcia 29 159 5.91 575 -2.09 1975 -0.34 2096 1.33 -0.56 6.47
James Jones 30 215 3.75 503 -2.58 630 -4.53 1276 0.16 -2.62 6.37
Al Horford 24 240 8.38 2845 2.59 2242 1.39 2540 -0.14 2.05 6.32
Dwight Howard 25 184 11.67 2843 5.81 2821 5.90 3088 4.81 5.80 5.87
Kris Humphries 25 101 3.67 1221 -1.88 265 -1.79 925 -2.06 -1.87 5.53
Tyson Chandler 28 160 4.04 1163 -2.07 1445 -2.28 2783 1.58 -1.42 5.45
Vince Carter 34 166 8.05 2310 2.45 2946 2.90 2959 3.08 2.64 5.40
Marcin Gortat 26 104 4.88 1088 -1.09 794 1.31 41 -1.88 -0.45 5.33
Russell Westbrook 22 225 5.31 2813 0.95 2668 -1.31 0 0.00 0.23 5.08
Shannon Brown 25 145 3.33 1700 -1.44 477 -2.49 240 -7.07 -1.66 5.00
Rudy Gay 24 332 5.41 3175 0.76 2945 -0.30 3000 1.89 0.57 4.84
Melvin Ely 32 102 -3.53 0 0.00 373 -9.26 621 -6.35 -8.29 4.75
DeAndre Jordan 22 123 1.55 1137 -3.35 771 -2.96 0 0.00 -3.18 4.73
Jason Smith 24 143 0.99 658 -3.61 0 0.00 1107 -4.42 -3.72 4.71
Glen Davis 25 243 1.47 933 -4.44 1637 -1.88 940 -2.11 -3.12 4.58
Marquis Daniels 30 137 1.23 937 -4.22 1700 -2.46 1546 -2.95 -3.34 4.57
Luis Scola 30 204 5.78 2671 0.69 2488 2.45 2024 0.98 1.22 4.56
Mike Conley 23 309 4.48 2569 0.16 2508 0.37 1381 -2.23 0.09 4.39

How about the players who have underperformed the most so far?

Player Age MP SPM MP-1 SPM-1 MP-2 SPM-2 MP-3 SPM-3 Expected Actual-Exp
Nate Robinson 26 101 -9.78 1115 1.50 2209 2.71 1883 0.74 1.95 -11.73
Bill Walker 23 109 -8.15 768 0.89 216 -1.11 0 0.00 0.66 -8.81
James Harden 21 134 -7.15 1738 1.55 0 0.00 0 0.00 1.59 -8.74
DeJuan Blair 21 140 -5.42 1494 2.13 0 0.00 0 0.00 2.19 -7.62
Yi Jianlian 23 100 -9.50 1655 -2.71 1421 -3.27 1647 -4.62 -3.00 -6.51
Amare Stoudemire 28 239 -3.27 2838 3.01 1948 1.85 2677 6.47 3.11 -6.37
LeBron James 26 293 5.55 2966 11.54 3054 12.14 3027 9.97 11.66 -6.11
Josh Childress 27 119 -5.23 0 0.00 0 0.00 2274 0.60 0.60 -5.83
Kevin Durant 22 256 -0.59 3239 6.96 2885 3.11 2768 -1.52 5.24 -5.83
David Lee 27 237 -2.75 3019 3.56 2824 2.28 2356 1.57 3.03 -5.79
Carl Landry 27 181 -5.01 2469 0.48 1467 0.71 711 3.26 0.63 -5.64
Samuel Dalembert 29 105 -5.65 2124 0.12 2036 -1.39 2724 -0.54 -0.39 -5.26
Baron Davis 31 109 -2.67 2523 2.93 2248 0.82 3196 4.57 2.56 -5.22
John Salmons 31 251 -4.28 2824 1.51 2959 0.35 2517 -1.31 0.89 -5.17
Darko Milicic 25 178 -7.56 685 -1.73 1034 -2.31 1663 -4.55 -2.43 -5.13
Keyon Dooling 30 119 -6.46 971 -2.11 2074 -0.71 1334 -1.33 -1.39 -5.08
Jermaine O'Neal 32 124 -5.96 1991 -0.13 2027 -2.79 1206 -3.72 -1.21 -4.75
Channing Frye 27 177 -2.60 2190 3.32 746 -4.04 1342 -0.23 2.06 -4.66
Spencer Hawes 22 103 -7.22 1904 -2.43 2259 -2.94 931 -5.17 -2.68 -4.54
Reggie Williams 24 150 -4.76 782 -0.28 0 0.00 0 0.00 -0.28 -4.48
J.J. Redick 26 124 -4.87 1808 0.36 1111 -2.89 276 -3.28 -0.46 -4.41
Gerald Wallace 28 274 0.01 3119 4.35 2669 4.73 2376 3.04 4.35 -4.34
Tayshaun Prince 30 275 -5.23 1664 -0.89 3057 -1.15 2694 -0.43 -0.94 -4.29
Robin Lopez 22 136 -6.15 986 -1.13 614 -4.60 0 0.00 -1.91 -4.25
Andre Iguodala 27 212 -1.23 3192 2.54 3269 3.24 3242 4.55 2.97 -4.20

Finally, the "they are who we thought they were" players:

Player Age MP SPM MP-1 SPM-1 MP-2 SPM-2 MP-3 SPM-3 Expected Actual-Exp
Goran Dragic 24 112 -1.13 1442 -0.31 728 -4.29 0 0.00 -1.09 -0.03
LaMarcus Aldridge 25 348 1.49 2922 1.72 3004 1.37 2649 0.60 1.53 -0.04
Kobe Bryant 32 254 5.75 2835 5.14 2960 6.38 3192 7.29 5.71 0.04
Charlie Villanueva 26 218 1.08 1848 0.93 2095 2.15 1829 -2.26 1.04 0.05
Thabo Sefolosha 26 144 -0.79 2348 -0.79 1451 -0.23 1436 -1.58 -0.72 -0.07
Keith Bogans 30 151 -0.98 1559 -1.24 1272 -0.59 2198 -0.08 -0.91 -0.07
Andris Biedrins 24 187 1.48 763 -0.45 1863 2.62 2078 2.07 1.40 0.08
Courtney Lee 25 118 -0.60 2375 -0.62 1939 -0.30 0 0.00 -0.52 -0.08
Carlos Arroyo 31 183 -2.49 1585 -2.33 0 0.00 1269 -2.21 -2.33 -0.15
Dwyane Wade 29 275 8.60 2792 8.40 3048 9.81 1954 2.65 8.44 0.16
Dante Cunningham 23 171 -0.48 707 -0.68 0 0.00 0 0.00 -0.67 0.19
Kevin Love 22 227 1.30 1714 2.44 2048 -0.20 0 0.00 1.49 -0.19
Mike Bibby 32 246 0.87 2195 0.38 2740 2.27 1573 0.49 1.06 -0.19
Sebastian Telfair 25 185 -2.44 659 -3.27 2095 -2.37 1933 -2.52 -2.65 0.21
Kyle Korver 29 119 -0.24 952 -0.20 1874 -0.82 1732 -0.14 -0.46 0.22
Omri Casspi 22 163 -1.31 1931 -1.69 0 0.00 0 0.00 -1.65 0.34
Luc Mbah a Moute 24 185 -0.47 1866 -0.74 2114 -1.05 0 0.00 -0.84 0.37
Mike Dunleavy 30 199 -0.99 1486 -1.41 495 -1.59 2953 2.27 -0.62 -0.37
Jamal Crawford 30 208 0.39 2460 1.83 2479 -1.14 3190 0.35 0.77 -0.38
Marvin Williams 24 154 -1.01 2468 -0.99 2093 0.55 2765 -0.93 -0.57 -0.44
George Hill 24 104 1.47 2276 1.68 1270 -1.39 0 0.00 1.03 0.44
Ben Wallace 36 194 1.22 1975 1.52 1314 -0.46 2205 -0.96 0.77 0.45
Drew Gooden 29 167 -0.44 1755 -0.90 1264 -0.43 2122 -1.68 -0.90 0.45
Marc Gasol 26 238 2.48 2469 2.88 2521 0.23 0 0.00 2.00 0.48
Udonis Haslem 30 201 -0.82 2177 -1.03 2560 -1.72 1806 -1.59 -1.31 0.49

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19 Responses to “Who’s Over/Underachiving So Far?”

  1. joe Says:

    No Hornets players on the overperforming list. Interesting.

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    That's actually not too surprising, since SPM predicted the Hornets would be good again this year:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7896

    Maybe not "+10.56 SRS" good, but "47 wins" good nonetheless.

  3. Jason J Says:

    3 of the top 4 picks in my fantasy league are on the underperforming list.

  4. Neil Paine Says:

    I'm amazed that Darko and Yi Jianlian are failing to meet their expectations by such a wide margin, given how little was expected to begin with. Somehow they managed to underachieve at underachieving!

  5. Walter Says:

    It will be interesting to see if Lebron stays on the underachieving list or if he eventually "figures it out" in Miami.

  6. Joe Schaller Says:

    Dwight Howard and Vince Carter both on the overachievers list (as well as my favorite Marcin) is an eyepopper and just what the overlooked Magic need to challenge the Heat.

  7. Caleb Says:

    Yeah I think its funny that folks keep saying the Hornets are "overachieving" or "overperforming."

    Look at the roster. It's really good. I'm not saying its Lakers-good or Miami-good, but its really good. The Hornets were a 56 win team in 07-08. They were expected to possibly be a 60 win team and maybe even challenge the Lakers in 08-09 but they were decimated by injuries - still, they managed a respectable 49 wins. Then there was last year, when they would have almost certainly been atleast a 45ish win team if CP hadn't gotten hurt. Now they have a roster that's better than its been since 07-08, and a coach who has gotten the team recommited on defense. They aren't overacheiving... they are simply achieving.

  8. Anon x 2 Says:

    considering what Lamar Odom's Shooting percentages have been, he has to be on this list! Obviously SPM doesn't factor that stuff, but I'm just saying a guy who is a career 50% efg% shooting 68% efg% is something to behold (along with his 2nd highest rebounding rate and highest WS/48) and PER over the age of 30 should be recognized.

  9. mr freeze Says:

    im pretty sure jason smith is on the hornets.

  10. taheati Says:

    #7 Agreed. A healthy Paul, a younger Posey (Ariza), addition by subtraction for better D (Stojakovic, Peterson), acquiring Belinelli sitting Thornton for better D along with aging Spurs, Mavs & the Hornets could easily revisit 50 wins.

    #8

    No Lebron fan here but I've followed the Heat long enough (1996) to know it's not all on the player to "figure it out" -- especially when that player is a 3 in Riley's system (ibid. Mashburn, Marion ). Rileyball disciple Erik Spoelstra is much more apostolic than Stan Van Gundy ever was. As a result, you see MUCH more standing around when the 'big 3' *take turns* handling and iso-ing during all too typical 1-v-5 pick-and-rolls.

    To date, James is averaging career LOWS in minutes-played, FGAs, offensive rebounding & near-career-lows in FG%, USG% & FTAs. He's averaging career HIGHS in TOs, TO-rate, assists and AST-rate.

    So it's not clear whether James is "underachieving" or underutilized given a) the presence of 2 x high-usage teammates which James is unselfishly sacrificing shots + touches for b) a system that depends so much on iso matchups which become iso mismatches when defenses double, triple while teammates standaround waiting for kickout-3s or their turn to iso-kamikaze.

  11. Michele Martel Says:

    David Lee was really never that good, I hope he does well we enjoyed watching him at the garden he is a hustler but never thought he was that talented

  12. taheati Says:

    In a big-3 to big-3 comparison, it'd be interesting (to me if no one else) to see the same analyses run for 2007-08 season at a similar point in time (November) + an end-of-season (April) comparison.

    I'd expect to see similar falloff from Garnett, Allen or Pierce at the start of their 1st season together, some level of recovery, adjustment or permanence by season's end.

  13. Gil Meriken Says:

    I don't think Paul Millsap is overachieving. I expect him to score 11 points in the last 28 of regulation of every game the rest of the season. Do not try to break this message down hermeneutically. It has been hermeneutically sealed.

  14. DSMok1 Says:

    Here is the Advanced SPM list of overachievers, minimum of 120 minutes played:

    Top 20:
    Tm Player ProjSPM SPM Delta RegrSPM UpdProj Heat
    PHI Elton Brand -0.89 6.34 7.23 5.78 0.06 0.95
    NJN Kris Humphries -2.45 4.66 7.10 2.81 -1.73 0.72
    DAL Tyson Chandler -1.56 4.81 6.37 3.98 -0.28 1.28
    UTA Paul Millsap 2.16 8.43 6.27 7.70 2.90 0.74
    NYK Landry Fields -5.28 0.51 5.79 0.32 -3.85 1.43
    SAC Francisco Garcia -1.37 4.19 5.57 3.26 -0.85 0.53
    MIA James Jones -3.39 1.76 5.14 1.77 -2.35 1.04
    ORL Brandon Bass -1.23 3.83 5.06 2.85 -0.64 0.59
    NJN Devin Harris 1.04 5.99 4.95 5.12 1.51 0.47
    OKC Russell Westbrook 2.27 7.05 4.78 6.33 2.74 0.47
    ORL Vince Carter 1.87 6.65 4.78 5.77 2.25 0.38
    BOS Marquis Daniels -2.68 2.03 4.71 1.06 -2.24 0.44
    TOR Reggie Evans -3.22 1.38 4.61 1.05 -2.14 1.08
    ORL Dwight Howard 5.59 10.14 4.55 8.86 5.89 0.31
    NYK Ronny Turiaf -0.84 3.68 4.52 2.69 0.12 0.96
    MIA Joel Anthony -1.70 2.79 4.49 1.91 -1.36 0.34
    SAS Richard Jefferson -0.31 4.13 4.44 3.79 0.13 0.44
    ORL Jameer Nelson 1.69 6.09 4.40 4.93 1.90 0.21
    GSW Monta Ellis 0.67 5.03 4.37 4.89 1.26 0.59
    ATL Al Horford 3.39 7.73 4.35 6.77 3.79 0.40

    Bottom 20:
    Tm Player ProjSPM SPM Delta RegrSPM UpdProj Heat
    DET Tayshaun Prince -0.14 -3.65 -3.51 -3.05 -0.49 -0.35
    UTA Al Jefferson 1.47 -2.05 -3.53 -1.39 0.77 -0.70
    BOS Jermaine O'Neal -1.02 -4.71 -3.68 -3.99 -1.44 -0.41
    DAL Brendan Haywood -0.20 -3.89 -3.69 -3.29 -0.52 -0.32
    OKC Jeff Green 0.44 -3.47 -3.91 -2.80 0.16 -0.28
    PHO Channing Frye 1.50 -2.47 -3.98 -2.15 1.14 -0.36
    NJN Brook Lopez 2.06 -2.02 -4.08 -1.62 1.64 -0.43
    PHI Spencer Hawes -0.59 -4.69 -4.10 -4.21 -1.15 -0.56
    MIN Nikola Pekovic -3.50 -7.61 -4.11 -6.65 -4.68 -1.18
    WAS Yi Jianlian -2.62 -6.75 -4.13 -5.85 -3.20 -0.58
    SAC Carl Landry -0.63 -4.83 -4.20 -4.08 -1.08 -0.45
    MIA LeBron James 11.72 7.50 -4.22 7.14 10.84 -0.88
    GSW Reggie Williams -0.06 -4.35 -4.29 -3.64 -0.83 -0.77
    OKC Nenad Krstic -1.80 -6.35 -4.55 -5.35 -2.15 -0.35
    PHO Robin Lopez -1.29 -6.19 -4.90 -5.25 -1.75 -0.46
    ORL J.J. Redick -0.02 -4.93 -4.91 -4.02 -0.33 -0.31
    CHI Luol Deng 1.17 -3.76 -4.93 -2.96 0.77 -0.39
    SAS DeJuan Blair 1.47 -3.57 -5.04 -2.91 0.90 -0.57
    OKC Kevin Durant 5.86 0.72 -5.14 0.96 5.25 -0.61
    OKC James Harden 1.11 -6.55 -7.65 -5.55 0.36 -0.75

    Anyone can run these numbers: I've posted the spreadsheets for Advanced SPM online over at APBR:

    http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?p=32511#32511

    As an OKC fan, I am rather disturbed by 4 OKC players making the bottom 20, including the worst 2!

    For those interested, John Wall is just off the top 20, with a 4.64 Adv. SPM and a projection before the season of 0.51 (median for a #1 over all rookie).

    An interesting thing to follow this year will be the progression of the 21 year old forwards: Anthony Randolph, Blake Griffin, DeJuan Blair, and Serge Ibaka. Blake Griffin and Ibaka lead the way currently.

  15. DSMok1 Says:

    BTW: is there any way for BBR to get the pre tag to work here in the comments?

  16. Neil Paine Says:

    I'm not sure, I'll have to look at why it's not working. Even I can't get html tags to work in the comments unless I go to the comment-edit screen. Idk if it's a browser issue (I'm in Firefox), or what.

  17. Sean Forman Says:

    It's a pre tags can really mess things up issue.

  18. huevonkiller Says:

    Well LeBron is slowly coming around, pretty great performance against Boston.

    He's figuring out the LeBron/Chris Paul role. I expect his shooting percentages to improve at least, his 3 pointers for example.

  19. Melissa Says:

    Wow I may need to show my son this. I had no idea of all the projections or how to do that. He will find this fasinating. Thank you for the information.