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BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (November 12, 2010)

Posted by Neil Paine on November 12, 2010

2010-11 NBA power rankings through the games played on November 11, 2010:

Rank Prev Team W L WPct Offense Rk Prv Defense Rk Prv Overall
1 5 New Orleans Hornets 7 0 1.000 2.60 9 10 -9.39 1 3 11.99
2 1 Miami Heat 5 4 0.556 6.80 3 1 -3.81 6 2 10.62
3 8 Boston Celtics 7 2 0.778 2.39 10 13 -5.52 4 9 7.91
4 4 Los Angeles Lakers 8 1 0.889 6.91 2 4 -0.89 12 6 7.80
5 6 Dallas Mavericks 5 2 0.714 -0.24 15 14 -6.69 3 5 6.45
6 3 Denver Nuggets 5 4 0.556 7.15 1 7 0.71 15 4 6.44
7 19 Milwaukee Bucks 4 5 0.444 -2.78 25 26 -8.00 2 8 5.23
8 9 San Antonio Spurs 6 1 0.857 3.63 6 12 -1.16 11 11 4.79
9 10 Portland Trail Blazers 6 3 0.667 3.16 8 9 -1.60 9 19 4.76
10 22 Chicago Bulls 4 3 0.571 0.51 14 22 -3.47 7 23 3.98
11 2 Orlando Magic 5 2 0.714 -1.30 19 11 -5.26 5 1 3.95
12 20 Indiana Pacers 3 3 0.500 2.00 11 23 -0.23 14 20 2.23
13 15 Utah Jazz 5 3 0.625 -0.68 17 15 -2.77 8 16 2.09
14 12 Phoenix Suns 3 4 0.429 5.35 4 6 4.32 27 21 1.02
15 7 Atlanta Hawks 6 3 0.667 4.87 5 2 4.50 28 18 0.38
16 13 Houston Rockets 1 6 0.143 3.16 7 3 3.29 23 25 -0.13
17 14 Philadelphia 76ers 2 6 0.250 -2.68 21 24 -1.20 10 7 -1.48
18 11 New York Knickerbockers 3 5 0.375 -0.27 16 16 1.84 19 10 -2.11
19 17 Memphis Grizzlies 4 5 0.444 -2.68 22 20 -0.54 13 13 -2.15
20 16 Golden State Warriors 6 3 0.667 0.68 12 8 2.96 22 26 -2.28
21 25 Oklahoma City Thunder 4 3 0.571 0.54 13 21 4.30 26 28 -3.77
22 24 Charlotte Bobcats 2 6 0.250 -1.49 20 17 2.59 21 29 -4.07
23 27 Los Angeles Clippers 1 8 0.111 -4.21 27 28 0.95 16 14 -5.15
24 21 Toronto Raptors 1 7 0.125 -2.70 23 18 3.35 24 22 -6.05
25 26 Cleveland Cavaliers 4 4 0.500 -2.71 24 29 4.56 29 12 -7.28
26 28 New Jersey Nets 3 5 0.375 -6.36 28 30 1.21 17 15 -7.58
27 30 Detroit Pistons 2 6 0.250 -4.20 26 25 3.72 25 27 -7.92
28 18 Washington Wizards 2 4 0.333 -8.59 29 19 1.22 18 17 -9.81
29 23 Sacramento Kings 3 4 0.429 -1.29 18 5 8.83 30 30 -10.12
30 29 Minnesota Timberwolves 2 7 0.222 -9.11 30 27 2.09 20 24 -11.20
HCA 2.94
LgAvg 106.70

To read more about the methodology and what these numbers mean, click here.

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5 Responses to “BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (November 12, 2010)”

  1. DSMok1 Says:

    Any idea of how many games of 0 margin must be added in to get a best estimate of true talent level at this point? I'm guessing something like 5...

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    I didn't go through this with adjusted efficiency differential per se, but SRS is a quick-n-dirty proxy... Through Nov 11 of last year, you needed to add seven games of zero to get the lowest squared errors when predicting final SRS (postseason included):

    team_id final 11-Nov games games of 0 regressed err^2
    ATL 3.571043614 5.461515458 8 7.036528279 2.905732152 0.442639342
    BOS 4.406563137 10.89290052 9 7.036528279 6.113299772 2.912949942
    CHA 1.1603997 -5.996771663 8 7.036528279 -3.190508634 18.93040334
    CHI -1.742721136 -1.296426929 8 7.036528279 -0.689748008 1.108752407
    CLE 5.798293055 2.93573871 8 7.036528279 1.561923687 17.94682543
    DAL 2.763861768 7.07368662 8 7.036528279 3.763467997 0.999212611
    DEN 4.139408178 2.932790876 9 7.036528279 1.645937165 6.217397696
    DET -5.029896667 1.515624542 8 7.036528279 0.806369403 34.06200164
    GSW -3.259376157 -6.815391713 7 7.036528279 -3.398827762 0.01944675
    HOU -0.006480229 5.609996361 8 7.036528279 2.98472959 8.947336183
    IND -3.11032882 -0.239312367 6 7.036528279 -0.110142376 9.001118698
    LAC -6.002380061 -4.478077389 9 7.036528279 -2.513180896 12.17451082
    LAL 5.549183748 6.111001031 7 7.036528279 3.047548964 6.258176592
    MEM -1.381991474 -10.04628942 9 7.036528279 -5.638165766 18.1150196
    MIA 1.665936392 7.869308888 7 7.036528279 3.924415006 5.10072565
    MIL 1.26034132 1.460605836 6 7.036528279 0.672236874 0.34586684
    MIN -9.053556177 -13.05617783 9 7.036528279 -7.327371513 2.979713493
    NJN -8.928493456 -12.35501032 8 7.036528279 -6.573331341 5.54678859
    NOH -2.261044175 -3.153380289 9 7.036528279 -1.769736074 0.24138365
    NYK -4.009028033 -9.016047932 9 7.036528279 -5.059974951 1.104489424
    OKC 3.574587788 5.309555548 8 7.036528279 2.824883749 0.562056146
    ORL 7.785182565 2.887539245 9 7.036528279 1.620541102 38.00280438
    PHI -3.91639128 -4.316139399 8 7.036528279 -2.296348901 2.624537308
    PHO 5.345131816 5.440280464 9 7.036528279 3.053187281 5.253009748
    POR 2.642556391 7.70669432 9 7.036528279 4.325141182 2.831091579
    SAC -4.049693044 -1.938168918 8 7.036528279 -1.031178944 9.111427376
    SAS 4.589121295 3.5950541 7 7.036528279 1.792849214 7.819137547
    TOR -1.828240042 -0.061055392 8 7.036528279 -0.032483771 3.224740586
    UTA 5.044031124 -2.165981598 8 7.036528279 -1.152383879 38.39555889
    WAS -4.716019289 -1.868059274 8 7.036528279 -0.993877969 13.854336
    274.1334583
  3. DSMok1 Says:

    That was quick!

    We would then estimate that a weighted average with 7 games of 0 would be the best estimate throughout the season...

    Any ideas on how many games of the SRS preseason projection would yield the best estimate? Probably more like 12 or 15...

  4. Jason J Says:

    Surprised the Hornets and Bucks are so far out in front on the defensive side, even considering we're only a couple weeks in.

  5. Neil Paine Says:

    #3 - Good question, I think I'll look at that at some point.