Posted by Neil Paine on November 15, 2010
After five straight improbable comeback victories, I thought now would be a good time to post some Win Probability graphs from the Utah Jazz's recent winning streak. For those curious, the method for WP comes from an old Ed Küpfer post at APBRmetrics, and the play-by-play records come from ESPN.com (or FoxSports.com, in the case of Jazz-Heat and Jazz-Bobcats). All WP is from the perspective of Utah, and the numbers at the bottom of the WP graphs represent the minutes remaining in the game.
November 6 - Clippers 107 at Jazz 109 (2OT)
November 9 - Jazz 116 at Heat 114 (OT)
The WP formula has a few issues at the end of games, an example being that it didn't know Utah had possession and a chance to shoot for a tie at the end of regulation. With that in mind, the lowest Jazz WP before the final minute was 3.2%, when Miami led 53-32 with 11:37 remaining in the 3rd Qtr.
November 10 - Jazz 104 at Magic 94
November 12 - Jazz 90 at Hawks 86
November 13 - Jazz 96 at Bobcats 95
With their road trip over and the Thunder coming to town, can the Jazz make it 6 straight unlikely comebacks? And would that even be a good thing? I have a feeling Jerry Sloan would prefer that his team play better in the early stages of the game, making these comebacks from under 10% WP unnecessary.