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More Turkey Day Specials

Posted by Neil Paine on November 24, 2010

Here's a follow up to a post I made two years ago regarding the best Thanksgiving Day performances since 1987. I only looked at raw totals then, but this time around I think we should nerd it up with an overflowing cornucopia of advanced stats. Yum!

Hollinger Game Score

The most basic metric you might consider "advanced" is John Hollinger's Game Score. It's a simple linear weights formula based on his infinitely more complex Player Efficiency Rating, but the weights are a step up from something like TENDEX. Here are the best Thanksgiving games by game score since 1987:

Player Date Tm Opp GS MP FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS GmSc
Andre Miller 11/28/2002 LAC NJN 1 48.0 14 24 2 5 7 7 2 3 16 2 0 1 4 37 38.1
Keith Van Horn 11/22/2001 NJN LAC 1 40.0 12 21 3 9 7 9 3 12 1 3 3 3 4 34 29.3
Carlos Boozer 11/26/2009 UTA CHI 1 34.6 12 14 0 0 4 5 1 8 5 1 3 2 2 28 29.2
Jason Kidd 11/28/2002 NJN LAC 1 42.0 12 24 6 9 5 5 1 8 8 0 0 2 1 35 29.0
Dwight Howard 11/27/2008 ORL WAS 1 38.2 8 12 0 0 10 14 4 14 2 1 3 2 1 26 27.1
J.R. Smith 11/27/2008 DEN NOH 0 32.6 13 21 5 9 1 2 2 5 4 2 0 2 1 32 26.8
Jamaal Tinsley 11/22/2001 IND WAS 1 45.0 6 15 0 1 7 8 2 11 23 1 1 5 2 19 26.6
C. Laettner 11/22/2001 WAS IND 1 45.0 8 13 0 0 3 3 7 15 7 1 0 0 2 19 25.5
Vince Carter 11/22/2001 TOR MIL 1 40.0 11 23 2 7 2 2 4 8 5 2 3 1 0 26 24.9
Robert Pack 11/28/1996 NJN GSW 1 40.0 7 16 1 2 10 11 0 2 9 4 1 2 3 25 24.6
Steve Nash 11/28/2002 DAL IND 1 41.0 10 23 4 7 5 5 4 7 9 2 0 4 1 29 24.5
Elton Brand 11/22/2001 LAC NJN 1 39.0 7 13 0 0 9 13 6 16 2 1 2 1 2 23 24.3
Rashard Lewis 11/24/2005 SEA LAL 1 43.5 12 23 4 9 4 4 2 5 2 0 1 0 2 32 24.3
Lamar Odom 11/24/2005 LAL SEA 1 44.7 6 14 2 5 9 10 2 12 6 2 0 0 5 23 23.8
Jamaal Tinsley 11/25/2004 IND MIN 1 41.0 7 15 2 3 4 8 0 7 14 5 0 3 3 20 23.4

Dean Oliver's Net Points

Game Score is nice for back-of-the-envelope assessments, but for more in-depth analysis we need to go to advanced stats like the individual Offensive & Defensive Ratings developed by Dean Oliver. One quick way to combine offense and defense into one rating is to subtract a player's "points allowed" ((DRtg/100)*(.2*((mp/(tm_mp/5))*tm_poss))) from his Points Produced, creating a "net points" metric:

Player Date Tm Opp GS MP FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS netpts
Andre Miller 11/28/2002 LAC NJN 1 48.0 14 24 2 5 7 7 2 3 16 2 0 1 4 37 20.6
Kobe Bryant 11/24/2005 LAL SEA 1 38.8 12 26 4 5 6 8 1 2 5 0 0 2 4 34 13.8
Jermaine O'Neal 11/27/2003 IND NYK 1 30.0 12 21 0 0 3 5 3 11 3 1 1 1 2 27 13.7
Keith Van Horn 11/22/2001 NJN LAC 1 40.0 12 21 3 9 7 9 3 12 1 3 3 3 4 34 12.5
Vince Carter 11/22/2001 TOR MIL 1 40.0 11 23 2 7 2 2 4 8 5 2 3 1 0 26 11.9
Jerry Stackhouse 11/25/1999 DET IND 1 41.0 8 16 0 0 10 12 4 9 6 2 0 5 1 26 11.9
Steve Nash 11/28/2002 DAL IND 1 41.0 10 23 4 7 5 5 4 7 9 2 0 4 1 29 11.8
Jason Kidd 11/28/2002 NJN LAC 1 42.0 12 24 6 9 5 5 1 8 8 0 0 2 1 35 11.5
Dwight Howard 11/26/2009 ORL ATL 1 41.1 9 14 0 0 4 9 6 17 3 1 4 5 3 22 11.4
J.R. Smith 11/27/2008 DEN NOH 0 32.6 13 21 5 9 1 2 2 5 4 2 0 2 1 32 11.4
Jamaal Tinsley 11/22/2001 IND WAS 1 45.0 6 15 0 1 7 8 2 11 23 1 1 5 2 19 11.3
Carlos Boozer 11/26/2009 UTA CHI 1 34.6 12 14 0 0 4 5 1 8 5 1 3 2 2 28 11.3
Jamaal Tinsley 11/25/2004 IND MIN 1 41.0 7 15 2 3 4 8 0 7 14 5 0 3 3 20 11.1
Vince Carter 11/23/2000 TOR IND 1 40.0 9 16 2 5 8 9 2 5 5 0 0 2 3 28 10.8
Dwight Howard 11/27/2008 ORL WAS 1 38.2 8 12 0 0 10 14 4 14 2 1 3 2 1 26 10.5

Win Shares

Another way to combine Dean's rate stats into a single metric measuring player contribution is our own Win Shares, created by BBR chief Justin Kubatko. Here are the best Thanksgiving games by WS:

Player Date Tm Opp GS MP ORtg %P DRtg P36 TS% AsR ToR OR% DR% Bk% St% OWS DWS WS
A. Miller 11/28/2002 LAC NJN 1 48.0 153.1 31.1 123.3 27.8 68.3 57.8 3.6 5.3 2.3 0.0 2.2 0.53 -0.06 0.46
C. Boozer 11/26/2009 UTA CHI 1 34.6 154.6 23.9 95.2 29.1 86.4 24.5 13.3 4.0 24.3 5.7 1.6 0.27 0.09 0.36
L. Odom 11/24/2005 LAL SEA 1 44.7 153.7 18.6 101.3 18.5 62.5 21.1 0.0 4.9 26.2 0.0 2.4 0.28 0.08 0.35
K. Van Horn 11/22/2001 NJN LAC 1 40.0 127.3 25.6 84.9 30.6 68.1 6.8 14.6 7.1 24.0 5.5 3.7 0.19 0.14 0.33
V. Carter 11/23/2000 TOR IND 1 40.0 143.8 24.3 104.9 25.2 70.1 21.3 10.7 5.7 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.29 0.04 0.33
D. Howard 11/27/2008 ORL WAS 1 38.2 138.6 23.5 91.4 24.5 71.6 9.0 11.6 10.5 26.8 5.7 1.4 0.20 0.12 0.32
V. Carter 11/22/2001 TOR MIL 1 40.0 120.5 27.3 83.4 23.4 54.4 30.3 5.0 8.7 14.1 6.8 2.7 0.16 0.15 0.31
E. Brand 11/22/2001 LAC NJN 1 39.0 132.7 23.1 93.4 21.2 61.4 9.3 5.5 16.4 24.1 3.8 1.3 0.20 0.10 0.30
J. O'Neal 11/27/2003 IND NYK 1 30.0 120.4 34.5 77.9 32.4 58.2 28.6 5.5 12.0 37.6 3.1 1.9 0.16 0.13 0.29
K. Willis 11/23/2000 TOR IND 0 32.0 152.8 20.2 100.9 25.9 69.6 0.0 0.0 3.6 11.5 0.0 1.6 0.23 0.04 0.27
A. Johnson 11/26/2009 ORL ATL 0 21.1 172.6 23.6 95.4 29.0 78.1 31.9 0.0 5.3 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.22 0.05 0.27
R. Artest 11/27/2003 IND NYK 1 35.0 116.3 25.4 76.4 21.6 59.1 21.9 12.8 3.4 8.1 0.0 8.1 0.12 0.16 0.27
R. Theus 11/26/1987 SAC NJN 1 37.0 149.3 18.6 103.6 24.3 79.3 13.4 14.2 0.0 14.4 0.0 1.3 0.20 0.06 0.26
J. Kidd 11/28/2002 NJN LAC 1 42.0 144.4 28.3 130.6 30.0 66.8 35.0 9.0 2.6 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.36 -0.09 0.26
C. Laettner 11/22/2001 WAS IND 1 45.0 160.1 15.3 115.3 15.2 66.3 21.7 0.0 14.4 20.8 0.0 1.1 0.27 -0.01 0.26

Statistical Plus/Minus

Finally, let's look at the Thanksgiving leaders in Statistical +/-, a pet stat of mine originally developed by Dan Rosenbaum. Since this is a rate stat, we'll have to set a minimum of 24.4 minutes played to qualify for the list:

Player Date Tm Opp GS MP FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA OR TR AS ST BK TO PF PT OSP DSP SPM
Ron Artest 11/27/2003 IND NYK 1 35.0 8 16 2 5 3 4 1 3 4 5 0 2 0 21 9.12 9.11 18.22
Carlos Boozer 11/26/2009 UTA CHI 1 34.6 12 14 0 0 4 5 1 8 5 1 3 2 2 28 14.66 3.34 18.00
Jermaine O'Neal 11/27/2003 IND NYK 1 30.0 12 21 0 0 3 5 3 11 3 1 1 1 2 27 14.59 2.91 17.51
Keith Van Horn 11/22/2001 NJN LAC 1 40.0 12 21 3 9 7 9 3 12 1 3 3 3 4 34 10.93 6.51 17.44
J.R. Smith 11/27/2008 DEN NOH 0 32.6 13 21 5 9 1 2 2 5 4 2 0 2 1 32 21.63 -4.25 17.38
Rasual Butler 11/27/2008 NOH DEN 1 33.3 7 8 4 5 1 2 1 2 2 3 0 0 2 19 14.99 1.69 16.69
Andre Miller 11/28/2002 LAC NJN 1 48.0 14 24 2 5 7 7 2 3 16 2 0 1 4 37 20.41 -4.61 15.80
Chris Mullin 11/27/1997 IND VAN 1 31.0 12 19 3 4 0 0 1 2 1 3 0 2 4 27 12.84 2.28 15.13
Dale Davis 11/24/1994 IND GSW 1 27.0 8 9 0 0 3 4 2 8 0 3 1 2 2 19 7.64 7.43 15.07
Jamaal Tinsley 11/25/2004 IND MIN 1 41.0 7 15 2 3 4 8 0 7 14 5 0 3 3 20 7.63 7.23 14.86
Lamar Odom 11/24/2005 LAL SEA 1 44.7 6 14 2 5 9 10 2 12 6 2 0 0 5 23 9.18 4.64 13.82
Derrick McKey 11/24/1994 IND GSW 1 26.0 6 8 1 1 0 0 2 8 2 2 2 1 4 13 5.05 7.45 12.50
Vince Carter 11/22/2001 TOR MIL 1 40.0 11 23 2 7 2 2 4 8 5 2 3 1 0 26 9.27 3.08 12.35
Smush Parker 11/24/2005 LAL SEA 1 33.5 6 10 3 5 1 2 0 8 3 3 0 3 2 16 3.97 8.31 12.28
Deron Williams 11/26/2009 UTA CHI 1 38.7 9 11 0 1 3 4 0 3 6 3 0 4 3 21 6.79 4.45 11.24

It looks like the consensus is that Andre Miller's 2002 performance against the Nets still stands as the top Thanksgiving Day performance since 1987.

There are two chances for someone to beat him tomorrow, though, as the Wizards face the Hawks and the Kings take on the Clippers. Will the turkey torch be passed this year?

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3 Responses to “More Turkey Day Specials”

  1. Seif-Eldeine Says:

    Hey, I do not know how often the author or BBR follows up on comments, but I think one of the reasons you may not have any comments despite it being two days is the post is showing up blank until under the sidebar. This was a problem when I clicked the header but not a problem when I clicked the bottom link, as it brought me directly to the post, although the white space in the middle along the sidebar still exists. Thank you for this article, however I do have a lot of reservations about Hollinger's stats. I have been doing an analysis of Hollinger's rating, your simple rating system and playoff seeds to determine which method is the best for predicting playoff series wins. I have finished analysis of the simple rating system and the playoff seeds all the way back to 1950, and determined that SRS outperforms the actual seeds slightly in this time. As I have had to calculate Hollinger's ratings on my own, I have only released the results of Hollinger and the other rating systems for the past 5 years, and I am working my way back. Hollinger is not performing as well as SRS or the playoff seeds, so I am beginning to have doubts about the validity or usefulness of his other statistics. I hope to get an e-mail response from you guys about why you think your system outperforms Hollinger's ratings and playoff seeds! I would like to share your insight with my readers.

  2. Neil Paine Says:

    Thanks for letting us know about the formatting bug (I'm assuming you're in Internet Explorer?). We'll take a look at why the content is shifted below the sidebar.

    As for Hollinger's ratings, I'm not sure... I've seen the formula, but I don't really know how he derived it. It seems like the biggest difference between the SRS and JH's system is the extra weight he gives recent games, which may be leading to the discrepancy.

  3. Seif-Eldeine Says:

    Hey, yeah, I was on internet explorer, it is fixed now. Thank you so much for the quick response, I have been working on updating the design on my blog so I was not able to respond... Yeah, I was thinking the same thing about the Hollinger ratings. During the summer, I am going to attempt to tweak his ratings to include more of the final games of a season (probably 20) while not including games after teams have already clinched a certain place in the playoff seeds. Seeing that SRS is even more accurate than the seeds is really nice.